This may be a dumb question...

OK, I know that I havent searched all the posts on this forum, and so there probably is a chance that my question has already been asked/answered, but I will ask for the benefit of the doubt. Is it possible to win money in the long run in blackjack casino style, 6 deck paranoia, etc ,etc? I am not a gambler at heart, because I hate to lose money, but I have always loved numbers, probability, number theory, etc, and I have been enthralled in the Casino World and it's careful construction to the minutest detail in order to skew the game just enough that people will play it even though they will lose. I have only had two Casino experiences, one where I put 20 bucks in the slots with some friends and I won 5, another experience where I put 20 bucks on the Roulette wheel, won/lost my pile to 8 dollars, and then I cut my losses. As you can see, not a big spender, hates to lose money. However, I was first drawn to Blackjack by the idea I heard reading a Western novel on Cowboys and cards where one character Counted Cards. Ever since my ears have been piqued for "Beating the dealer", etc etc. I downloaded a program that plays Blackjack and gives you tips based on BS, but I never EVER seem to be ahead of the dealer. And I know it is extremely unlikely(maybe even impossible) to memorize each card that has come out of the dealer's hand and calculate the probability or the appearance of the next card out of the deck with any consistency ( I have heard of the Hi-Lo system of Card Counting, but have not delved into it.) So, basically, my main question is this(sorry about the tenacity of my post) :Is there a way that the House can lose to an individual over long periods of time( I am not talking about hours, but days, years, MILLENIA)? Or is the game engineered so ingeniusly that it is impossible to crack the code? I don't think I could ever be a professional blackjack player for money, but for the drive to find a loophole into something so well conceived that few can pass the test. Sorry about length. Oh, one other small question, and I know this has been answered in part, but maybe not directly to my circumstance. I recieved 10 bucks free for joining a PLayer's Club and I purchased some cards and a BS Blackjack laminated card DIRECTLY from the casino. Should I trust this card? I have compared it to online BS cards and it is very similar (This one says don't split with a 2-2 or 3-3 when dealers upcard is 2 or 3, I also don't know the specific house rules except for 6 decks, and maybe there are a few other minor deviations). Would the casino put a card that may seem right, but have a few fatal errors so that the scales can be tipped even more into their favor? Thank you for reading.

Jay

Whew! Not dumb, but certainly long!

I can answer a few of your questions.

"And I know it is extremely unlikely(maybe even impossible) to memorize each card that has come out of the dealer's hand..."

Luckily, this isn't necessary. Card counting just involves keeping track of the net difference between the number of high cards and low cards that have been played.

"Is there a way that the House can lose to an individual over long periods of time( I am not talking about hours, but days, years, MILLENIA)?"

Actually, assuming that you are, in fact, playing at an advantage, the only place card counting is guaranteed to work is in the long run.

"I don't think I could ever be a professional blackjack player for money..."

You don't need to be. You can be a recreational counter, like a lot of us.

"...BS Blackjack laminated card DIRECTLY from the casino. Should I trust this card?"

The best thing would be to find out the exact rules and number of decks you would be playing with, plug those into the Basic Strategy Engine on this site, and use the resulting charts. If it matches up with your card, fine. (BS differs according to the rules and number of decks.)

I hope this helps a little.

muchas gracias

This is very helpful. Could you, or someone else of course, answer this question though: Is it possible to stay ahead of the Casino over time, or does the probability of winning finally catch up to the player/what are the odds of the experienced player?

Let's say you can play at a 1% advantage, which is not unreasonable. Over time it's not a case of the the casino catching up, it's more like you will be pulling away.

Later on you'll want to discuss what we call "variance" or "fluctuation", which is what defeats most would-be card counters.

THank you both very much

I am not doubting your judgement, for I am so new at this the umbilical cord has yet to be snipped, but I have one leering question: Why? Why would the casinos still have blackjack games if a person could get an advantage over them? Is it the sheer ignorance of the masses throwing money at the dealers, or a problem that cannot be solved until eradicated?

The casinos continue to have blackjack because for every 1 person that legitimately can generate an advantage for themselves by card counting there are 100,000 people who think they can but will fail.

<<However, I was first drawn to Blackjack by the idea I heard reading a Western novel on Cowboys and cards where one character Counted Cards.>>

This is just wrong. Prof E Thorpe discovered the card counting in the 50's or 60's I believe, while conning time on a computer (under the guise of writing a paper on probabilities) where he wrote a program that simulated the game. The author of your Western Novel was slightly ahead of his character's time! <LOL>

But I'm picking nits.....whether or not the quote is valid, it did get you interested in card-counting <smile> and that was your point.

At one time I attempted to learn to count cards. I found it required more concentration than I was willing to use. My wife and I play BJ only at brick casinos maybe 3 times a year, no online other than practice. Playing basic strategy only flat betting, sometimes we are up sometimes down a little. We play for the fun. We talk with the other players, joke with the dealer and overall just have a good time. A free drink or two is ok too. We also play video poker when we are not in the mood to be so social. The casino experience is just a good time for us. We don't throw money away, but on average, we have a good time for the money spent. What does it cost to go to the movies now? Two tickets, a shared pop corn and soda? I am thinking $20.00 or more. We can buy in for a $100.00 each and forgetting the fluctuations play for 4 hours and on average be about even. Good value for the money in my opinion. Plus what else is the to do at a casino? I know some of the experts here probably cringe at this post, but this is an honest opinion from a recreational BJ player.

Thank you for all of your responses

LOL, it was just a novel, not a non-fiction account.

So what's my next step? Do I learn to card count, memorize basic strategy, learn some advanced strategy, practice? In any particular order or importance?

Yeah, counter or non-counter, you HAVE to know basic strategy first. There really isn't such thing as "advanced basic strategy." Well, maybe that's not correct....I have seen some strategy charts that are designed not to be optimal so that they are useful to the player no matter what the table rules are.

If I were you, I'd probably learn the 6-deck strategy for games where the dealer hits soft 17's. That seems to be the most common game out there in brick and mortar casinos.

When you can follow basic strategy in your sleep, then take up a counting method and practice the hell out of it.

My list of hurdles

Here's my list of things you need to do successfully.

1) Learn basic strategy perfectly, to the point where you know instantly how to play your hand without thinking about it.

2) Choose a counting system, and study it and practice it to death, so you can count the cards almost effortlessly.

3) Be able to count cards, and play your hand, in a casino environment. (This was by far the hardest part for me. Being at the casino is way different than practicing on your computer or at the kitchen table.)

4) Be willing to bet the count, and possibly lose. (Depending on the number of decks, you will need to bet 5 to 15 times your minimum bet when the count gets high. And be prepared to lose, a high count is no guarantee you'll win.)

As most people will tell you, you need to.... Practice, practice, practice!

PS:

"I am not a gambler at heart"

I once had a dealer say she didn't think I was a gambler at heart. She was right, but I wasn't going to tell her that!

Basic Strategy

Basic Strategy is "Basic Only" as the name indicates, there are exceptions to BS if you count cards or not. One example is; BS states always hit hard 16 against a dealer 10 if surrender is not offered, the exception is if your hard 16 is 3 or more cards and contains either a 4 or 5, stand don't hit. Another common BJ philosophy is never take insurance but if you are counting and the TC is +4 or more, taking insurance is the way to go. There are numerous other exceptions to BS but they require additional study and probably won't make a big difference to the plus/loss winnings of the average recreational player but every player should know at a minimum Basic Strategy for the house rules and decks they will be playing.

Rookie....that "rule of 45"....standing on a 16 against a dealer 10....I've seen that around the tables or rather I've heard it. It does make sort of a preverse sort of sense. If you have a 3+ card 16 and one of the cards is a 4 or 5, then don't hit. You need a 4 or 5 to draw to 20 or 21 to beat the dealer 10 if he has a face down. With those cards out of the deck (in your hand) then that cuts into the probability that you'll draw one. But, do you think that it applies to 4's and 5's ONLY in your hand? What if there are 4's and 5's elsewhere showing in player hands?

I will not argue with anyone about how to play that stiff. It's such a coin toss though percentages state that you will win one more stiff hand out of 100 stiff hands if you do hit it. That's not enough to go to the mat over.

hard 16's

Mikeaber,
I only play pitch games never shoes so I can't see other player's cards unless it's a hit card and I try to play 1st base so that would eliminate observing hit cards of other players. I do see your point and have considered it in the past but nothing is perfect. The point of my original post is that there are exceptions to basic strategy.

The answer is YES

Senaccrib you want to know if you can make money at the casino over the the long run and the answer is YES you can! However getting there is not pretty. Your edge is so small over the casino that it requires a lot of playing and in order to play a lot you need a large bankroll. I'm not talking about the recreational player who is there for fun with his buddies or spouse and sits down with $200.

If you are serious about making money you will need a bankroll of at least $5,000, but I would suggest more like $50,000. (Other will disagree with me here but you must take the risk of ruin very serious if you are to survive the ups and downs which come along with this game.) Never bet more than 1% of your largest bet so a $5000 bankroll will allow you to bet up to $50 with a 1 to 10 spread at a $5 table.
My suggestion is to start saving money if you don't have it already. While you are saving just start learning and mastering basic strategy. Go to the casino play minimum bets and just flat bet. The only time you should ever raise your bet is when you know you have an edge. The only way to know this is if you are counting cards. Once you are comfortable at basic then it is time to start learning how to count.

Pick a counting method you can master not the method with the highest winning percentage. I tried 3 different systems in the casino before I found one I liked and was comfortable with. Master the counting system at home first. If you can't win while practicing you won't win under the pressure of a real casino because there are many distractions there. Once you master the count go to the casino and try it out again at minimum tables and don't raise your bet at all. After doing this and you are comfortable you can start raising your bets and fully implementing your system.

I hope this helps I've been at it for a year and a half now and I am up slighty at the casinos. If $5000 is a lot of money for you than just play recreationally. By the way a $5000 bankroll will only make you about $7 an hour over the long run. So good luck and remember everyone must pass through the novice learning curve and if you really have a passion for blackjack than you will be successful.

Actually there were 'card-counters' in the old west...

>> I was first drawn to Blackjack by the idea I heard reading a Western novel on Cowboys and cards where one character Counted Cards.<<

... at Faro Bank. They could bring the housEdge down to zero. zg

See "Case Counter.
(Dead link: http://www.bcvc.net/faro/rules.htm)

Many good replies here already...

I too say yes. I've been at it for 5 years now and if experience has taught me anything, you can have a winning percentage but not necessarily a "winning bankroll".

For the first 4 years I was always hovering around 70% win ratio...That's great except for the fact that I was down 50k. Currently this past year I'm in the 86% win ratio and am up in the six figure range.

What's changed and what can I offer as advice? Money management, money management, money management...and LOTS of discipline.

You can count cards, and play perfect BS with all the right advantage plays...but if you overplay your bankroll and don't recognize when it is time to leave you can lose pretty badly...Couple this with the emotional aspect of the game and the heavy burden it can be mentally IF/When you do lose despite high counts etc...It can be very taxing no matter the perceived skill you may assign yourself.

It took me 4yrs to learn this aspect of the game...Playing to "make money" and turn "pro" so to speak is leaps beyond just playing for fun/recreationally. Simply learning BS and how to count cards doesn't make one mentally ready to experience the ups and downs of winning and losing.

This formula ws given me by someone who did it.
You need a $500 minimum bankroll,more is better but $1,500 is tops.
Keep your BJ bankroll seperate and use it only for BJ
Play $5 or less until you have doubled your original payroll twice.ie-500 into $2,000.
Play $10 until you have again double it twice-$2,000 into $8,000.
Play $25 until you reach $25,000.
If you reach the $25,000 mark,you are ready and experianced enough to pursue doing it fulltime if you want.You'll have seen the crazy winning and losing streaks that occur for no logical reason,hopefully have learned your strengths and weaknesses, and become aware that the life of a BJ pro,while fairly lucrative,is far from glamourous.

November 6th, I made $24,000 from only $400. This is a real experience!!!

The real problem: Who has the power to stop you and going home with that amount of money???

Guys... we can collect a considerable amount of money by playing PlackJack but the most important thing is "SELF CONTRL"!!!

I always use doupling procedure to cover any loses (Min:25 Max:500):
25
50
100
200
500
It is so rare to lose 5 times in a row.

Danger Will Robinson! Danger!