slug tracking headaches

I was playing recently and had a really funny thing happen. The shoe before the one I was playing presently had a really good slug of high cards in it. I was able to cut it to the front but, after a short while players were bitching up a storm beacause the dealer was kicking our butts. I couldn't help but laugh at the others because they had small bets out, I of course had larger out which helped stem the tide. To say the least people bailed the table quickly so I was playing by myself after a short time. I wonder if anyone really had a clue what had happend. blackchipjim

Clueless

Doubtful. If a card-counter, hole-carder, shuffle tracker and basic strategy player were all playing at the same table I doubt if anyone just watching blackjack for the first time would have pick up any clue whatsoever as to how to bet the game and the playing strategy. I've identified a few counters in a casino, but never any other advantage players, though I must've seen a few.
BW

I'm kind of curious, when you cut the slug of high cards to the front you say you were putting out larger bets. How did you determine how strong the slug was and what your bet should be? What size and strength was the slug after the random cards were shuffled in? Did you play the whole shoe at what you thought was an advantage or did you back off any time through it? I only ask because I wonder if those that are attempting to track slugs are actually playing the advantage they think they are. Also, with the dealer kicking the butt of the other players, what made it different for you? I hope it worked out well for you, but if you can't honestly answer these questions, then you're playing with luck and not always an advantage. I know the saying I'd rather be lucky then good, but luck and an advantage work well together everytime, luck on its own will disappoint you very hard when it inevitably leaves you.

I must admit i did wonder about the fact that the dealer was kicking the butts of the other players at the table. Don't get me wrong, even in the best packets the dealer could kick the table's butt, but in general even if they don't know that they're playing through a good packet its still more likely that the other players at the table will do better during these packets than getting horrendeously battered. Of course they could have been getting battered after the packet finished in the high card depleated deck.

RJT.

slug tracks

For the life of me I don't undertand how alot of people think at bj. Just because the high cards show up first and are not wildly scattered through the shoe they start to bitch about all the high cards and of course they think it's a really bad shoe. I really piss alot of people off when this cards come out for a few rounds and then I leave for a well timed bathroom break after the count plummets way into negative territory. blackchipjim

Don't forget that all of the advanced forms of AP have variance associated with them too. For any real-world shuffle, you can track the slug perfectly and have none of the cards you expect end up where you expect them. Even if you do get the high cards, there's no guarantee how they will fall.

Thus slug tracking should be treated just like Wonging into high counts. All your doing is giving yourself an increased chance of high cards being dealt in this round, nothing more.

Technically if you track a packet perfectly, the cards you tracked will always be exactly where you expect them to be. There may be a packet of unknown cards that cancel your packet out mixed with them, but your cards will always be there. Also if you packet gets 'cancelled out' on any regular basis, you're doing something wrong and don't have the advantage you think you have.

RJT.

Not with the shuffles we have here. Most US shuffles use a stepladder or similar move, and when a dealer riffles a pack and then breaks it apart, all the high cards could be in his left hand, or all the high cards could be in his right hand. It's random, but fortunately which cards are in which hand follows a normal distribution. You just have to consider this variance in your betting like you would any other kind of variance.

RJT is pretty accurate with his statement. For example, a rather easy track would be if you get a large amount of high cards dealt in the first round or two. Say the count is -9 in the first 1/4 deck. These cards will be on the bottom of the discard tray. Plugging the unused cards very rarely affects the absolute bottom of the discard tray, so if your eyes aren't quite calibrated for tracking you needn't worry too much. I will gaurantee you with the shuffle you talk about that every single one of those cards, if picked last will be in the bottom 2 to 2 1/2 decks of the finished shuffle. Given what you know now do you know where those cards are? Would that give you an advantage for those couple of decks?

Even better as you get more comfortable with tracking you could use the first four cards dealt out of the first hand as key cards. What this will do is help you if the packet you track gets split. As I said before no matter what, the packet will be in the bottom couple of decks if they are picked last, but if they are split they will be at the top and bottom of your cut with a block of randoms in the middle. As you train yourself you will see that if the key cards come out early you know that the rest of your packet will be at the bottom of your cut, and you could sit out a few hands and pick it up towards the end of your cut. Or if you aren't comfortable with that just stop betting altogether, or lower your bet. At this point you know those cards you tracked are there, they just might be at separate ends of the cut. Thats something that will take practice, but knowing where your track is not always difficult, and such as in this case gives you an advantage, although not as much as if you are calibrated in to really track the cards.

It depends. In AC there are three shuffles that are vulnerable to this particular technique, and it would violate the code for me to say which ones they are. But it's still a relatively weak technique, and there are much better things you can do in these stores with that type of shuffle. How often are the first 13 cards of a shoe going to have a count of -9?

What shuffles the US casinos are using is fairly well known all over and what i said before is still accurate.
If you track a packet perfectly then you will know exactly where your slug ends up. You will know that x amount of cards is here, that y got picked up in this grab and that z were split off and is over there. If you track a packet perfectly you should know where everything is. It makes no difference whether you know exactly which cards out of the slug have ended up in which place, you need to know what proportion of the cards from your slug ended up in which locations in the final stack.
You should know if your packet has been split by a break or grab, if so what proportion of your packet ended up where. You should know that your packet when tracking a stepladder shuffle (assuming a perfect grab) is only going to be 3/4 of the original cards due to the upwards movement that a stepladder causes and you should have accounted for that. Whether the high cards are the ones that get moved out of your packet or not on any specific occurance is inconsequential. You are tracking a packet of cards, not individual cards. You choose your packet based on the high to low card proportions knowing that in the long run this proportion will influence the make up of the packet at the end of the shuffle. Never the less, you are still tracking an entire packet not the specific high cards within.
The varience you talk about does have an effect in that sometimes it will be all the high cards that are removed from your packet by the stepladder, but just as often all the low cards will be removed from your packet. The varience will balance itself out. Nobody every mentioned playing without a reasonable assessment of varience. In both these situations however, you should still know where all of your slug is. The low and neutral cards are still part of the slug. They may not be the part that you're interested in, but they are part of the packet of cards that you've been tracking just as much as the high cards.

RJT.

The technique I described is for those that are starting out and want to try their hand at shuffletracking with a basic technique thats somewhat easy for beginners. To answer your question on how often could you get a count such as I described right off the bat, on a fairly regular basis if you have the talent to put them there. Also I wouldn't worry about you violating any code if I were you, so far I don't think you quite get it. By the way, could you answer the question I originally asked, will you be playing with an advantage in my example, and if so how do you know?

I don't know if you have an advantage. How do you get an advantage by putting a -9 count into 2 decks? Doesn't that mean you will be starting with a negative count? I really don't understand how this works. I understand from what you say how to get them in there, I don't get why its good.

Hey Joe,
You've got it backwards. When it comes to shuffle tracking -ves are good. Think about it - high cards are the cards that are good for the player, so if 9 extra high cards come out in the first 1/4 deck and you track that 1/4 deck through the shuffle to the 2 decks that it ends up in you know that there are 9 extra high cards are in those 2 decks. With a RC of 9 with 2 decks left you've got a TC of 4.5 and assuming a true-1 game you have a 2% advantage.
If any of that's not clear, ask away.

RJT.

slug tracks

I'm still working on the shuffle tracking so this is still in it's infancy to my skill level. I have used the tracking when certain conditions arise and they don't really come up that often. I was thinking that a good cookbook would be in order for myself and alot more practice. I do look for tired dealers that don't shuffle thoroughly which is a plus for my tracking. I'm no math genius to figuire out my advantage at any certain with regards to good slugs but still practice under live casino conditions. blackchipjim

Jim,
As an observation i'd say it's a very bad idea to try anything to do with shuffle tracking that you are not 100% sure of. Shuffle tracking is a very delicate art and mistakes are far more costly than counting. The last thing you want to be doing is trying to put into practice in the casino anything that you can't manage perfectly every time at home.
It's not just tracking them through the shuffle to the final stack it's following them accurately to the cut - if you get the cut card - or identifying where they land and when they're going to come out if someone else cuts.
Practice at home, not at the table would be the best advice i can give.

RJT.

Question for the successful shuffle trackers

Question for the successful shuffle trackers:
Are there any worthwhile written materials on the subject?
I've heard Snyder's book omits some "key info."

I don't think there is too much as far as inside knowledge being published out there. Truth be told a lot of what is published can be generic and sometimes not even practical. Although I think it is important to read and practice what is available out there. The more you adjust yourself to the mechanics of the cards, the more understanding you will have of shuffle characteristics, thus bringing to light advantage opportunities not readily seen before. I think most that are interested in shuffletracking are looking for the unknown secrets of the pro's. I'll let you in on something, there really aren't any. If you can get the basics down cold, you will understand what I mean. The secret is most people aren't even close to being fundamentally sound when it comes to shuffletracking, so they can't see the advantages that are readily in front of their face. Yes there are techniques that aren't generally talked about, but that doesn't mean its a secret. Look at it this way, if the secret of life was in a book placed right in front of you but you aren't able to read, is it really a secret? No, all you have to do is learn how to read and you can unlock what has been available to you all along. The same goes for shuffletracking, really learn whats in front of you, and that understanding will open you up to many more advantages you thought were secret.

Snyder's Cookbook is excellent as far as the basics are concerned. It will give you the fundamental understanding of the principals of shuffle tracking essentially giving you the basic "reading" skills that Bojack was talking about above.
The information contained within is enough to get you playing a very strong game - far stronger than counting if perfected - but it is difficult to master. Very difficult. If you make a half hearted attempt, or convince yourself you're better than you are you'll be in real trouble with tracking.
The information it omits is more in the detail. He doesn't give proper betting in good packets anywhere near the appropriate examination for a start, but truthfully his betting system still works. Its very generic and can be improved apon, but that's something that you need to run sims on to find. Like becoming a pro counter, a lot of the understanding and knowledge of how to play, get the money and last the duration comes from the practical experience and can't really be conveyed to those that haven't experienced it first hand. Nothing every replaces getting out there and giving it a go (once you're properly prepared of course).

RJT.

Yes, and a reasonable assessment of that variance is that that variance is very high. The variance in straight counting will also balance out, and many of us will go bankrupt waiting for that to happen. It is no different for tracking.

The kind of tracking you are talking about where you take the relatively unmolested first round and cut it to a position where you will know when to play it has both the least variance and the least power of all the ST techniques. You can play all night to predict an advantage for only a couple of hands that way. Other forms of tracking are much more powerful, but they usually require a computer.

Again, it depends on the shuffle, and it depends on the dealer. Dealer grabs have variability too, some more than others, and some shuffles are more sensitive to the size of the dealer grabs than others. The shuffles that are more sensitive are both more vulnerable and have higher variance.

Invest in CVShuffle, and you will see that with any real-world shuffle implemented by any real-world dealer, if the shuffle has a stepladder you will sometimes find any card from the mother shoe in any part of the daughter shoe. Therefore you can never know where all of your packet is, nor what cards have been mixed in with it. Variance.