slug tracking headaches

[blackchipjim]

I was playing recently and had a really funny thing happen. The shoe before the one I was playing presently had a really good slug of high cards in it. I was able to cut it to the front but, after a short while players were bitching up a storm beacause the dealer was kicking our butts. I couldn't help but laugh at the others because they had small bets out, I of course had larger out which helped stem the tide. To say the least people bailed the table quickly so I was playing by myself after a short time. I wonder if anyone really had a clue what had happend. blackchipjim

[Brock Windsor]

Doubtful. If a card-counter, hole-carder, shuffle tracker and basic strategy player were all playing at the same table I doubt if anyone just watching blackjack for the first time would have pick up any clue whatsoever as to how to bet the game and the playing strategy. I've identified a few counters in a casino, but never any other advantage players, though I must've seen a few.
BW

[Bojack1]

Originally Posted by blackchipjim

I was playing recently and had a really funny thing happen. The shoe before the one I was playing presently had a really good slug of high cards in it. I was able to cut it to the front but, after a short while players were bitching up a storm beacause the dealer was kicking our butts. I couldn't help but laugh at the others because they had small bets out, I of course had larger out which helped stem the tide. To say the least people bailed the table quickly so I was playing by myself after a short time. I wonder if anyone really had a clue what had happend. blackchipjim

I'm kind of curious, when you cut the slug of high cards to the front you say you were putting out larger bets. How did you determine how strong the slug was and what your bet should be? What size and strength was the slug after the random cards were shuffled in? Did you play the whole shoe at what you thought was an advantage or did you back off any time through it? I only ask because I wonder if those that are attempting to track slugs are actually playing the advantage they think they are. Also, with the dealer kicking the butt of the other players, what made it different for you? I hope it worked out well for you, but if you can't honestly answer these questions, then you're playing with luck and not always an advantage. I know the saying I'd rather be lucky then good, but luck and an advantage work well together everytime, luck on its own will disappoint you very hard when it inevitably leaves you.

[RJT]

I must admit i did wonder about the fact that the dealer was kicking the butts of the other players at the table. Don't get me wrong, even in the best packets the dealer could kick the table's butt, but in general even if they don't know that they're playing through a good packet its still more likely that the other players at the table will do better during these packets than getting horrendeously battered. Of course they could have been getting battered after the packet finished in the high card depleated deck.

RJT.

[blackchipjim]

For the life of me I don't undertand how alot of people think at bj. Just because the high cards show up first and are not wildly scattered through the shoe they start to bitch about all the high cards and of course they think it's a really bad shoe. I really piss alot of people off when this cards come out for a few rounds and then I leave for a well timed bathroom break after the count plummets way into negative territory. blackchipjim

[Automatic Monkey]

Don't forget that all of the advanced forms of AP have variance associated with them too. For any real-world shuffle, you can track the slug perfectly and have none of the cards you expect end up where you expect them. Even if you do get the high cards, there's no guarantee how they will fall.

Thus slug tracking should be treated just like Wonging into high counts. All your doing is giving yourself an increased chance of high cards being dealt in this round, nothing more.

[RJT]

Technically if you track a packet perfectly, the cards you tracked will always be exactly where you expect them to be. There may be a packet of unknown cards that cancel your packet out mixed with them, but your cards will always be there. Also if you packet gets 'cancelled out' on any regular basis, you're doing something wrong and don't have the advantage you think you have.

RJT.

[Automatic Monkey]

Originally Posted by RJT

Technically if you track a packet perfectly, the cards you tracked will always be exactly where you expect them to be. There may be a packet of unknown cards that cancel your packet out mixed with them, but your cards will always be there. Also if you packet gets 'cancelled out' on any regular basis, you're doing something wrong and don't have the advantage you think you have.

RJT.

Not with the shuffles we have here. Most US shuffles use a stepladder or similar move, and when a dealer riffles a pack and then breaks it apart, all the high cards could be in his left hand, or all the high cards could be in his right hand. It's random, but fortunately which cards are in which hand follows a normal distribution. You just have to consider this variance in your betting like you would any other kind of variance.

[Bojack1]

Originally Posted by Automatic Monkey

Not with the shuffles we have here. Most US shuffles use a stepladder or similar move, and when a dealer riffles a pack and then breaks it apart, all the high cards could be in his left hand, or all the high cards could be in his right hand. It's random, but fortunately which cards are in which hand follows a normal distribution. You just have to consider this variance in your betting like you would any other kind of variance.

RJT is pretty accurate with his statement. For example, a rather easy track would be if you get a large amount of high cards dealt in the first round or two. Say the count is -9 in the first 1/4 deck. These cards will be on the bottom of the discard tray. Plugging the unused cards very rarely affects the absolute bottom of the discard tray, so if your eyes aren't quite calibrated for tracking you needn't worry too much. I will gaurantee you with the shuffle you talk about that every single one of those cards, if picked last will be in the bottom 2 to 2 1/2 decks of the finished shuffle. Given what you know now do you know where those cards are? Would that give you an advantage for those couple of decks?

Even better as you get more comfortable with tracking you could use the first four cards dealt out of the first hand as key cards. What this will do is help you if the packet you track gets split. As I said before no matter what, the packet will be in the bottom couple of decks if they are picked last, but if they are split they will be at the top and bottom of your cut with a block of randoms in the middle. As you train yourself you will see that if the key cards come out early you know that the rest of your packet will be at the bottom of your cut, and you could sit out a few hands and pick it up towards the end of your cut. Or if you aren't comfortable with that just stop betting altogether, or lower your bet. At this point you know those cards you tracked are there, they just might be at separate ends of the cut. Thats something that will take practice, but knowing where your track is not always difficult, and such as in this case gives you an advantage, although not as much as if you are calibrated in to really track the cards.

[Automatic Monkey]

Originally Posted by Bojack1

RJT is pretty accurate with his statement. For example, a rather easy track would be if you get a large amount of high cards dealt in the first round or two. Say the count is -9 in the first 1/4 deck. These cards will be on the bottom of the discard tray. Plugging the unused cards very rarely affects the absolute bottom of the discard tray, so if your eyes aren't quite calibrated for tracking you needn't worry too much. I will gaurantee you with the shuffle you talk about that every single one of those cards, if picked last will be in the bottom 2 to 2 1/2 decks of the finished shuffle. Given what you know now do you know where those cards are? Would that give you an advantage for those couple of decks? ...

It depends. In AC there are three shuffles that are vulnerable to this particular technique, and it would violate the code for me to say which ones they are. But it's still a relatively weak technique, and there are much better things you can do in these stores with that type of shuffle. How often are the first 13 cards of a shoe going to have a count of -9?