Isn't BJ crazy, but predictable

[Elhombre]

Isn't Blackjack crazy, when you play much ?
I predict aces at handshuffled games and CSM's.
The casino with handshuffling is far away from my home, so I go there
once in 14 days.
The last day I was there I hit many aces, but lost 12 units.
I was disappointed and doubted at my abilities.
Nearly the same at my home casino with a CSM, I hit more than
every 13 upcard an ace., but many days in the last 14 days I lost money.
But I think it's only standard deviation.
My problem, I bet 2 spots, when I expect an ace and so far the standard deviation is
high.
I think it's better to bet only one spot.
And what happened today ?
I saw the key cards and bet the first spot, got an ace, the dealer got an ace too
I got a ten card, the dealer not.
The second time I bet and got an ace and the second card was a ten card.
The third time I saw the key cards, bet, got the ace, the dealer too, I got
the ten card, the dealer not.
I never was so lucky, OK it doesn't depend on luck but of prediction.
What I want to say, BJ is crazy, but you get your profit, if you are purposive
and in the short run, if you have a high advantage.
regards rainer

[sagefr0g]

keying an ace on a csm? what's any ones thoughts on that?

[RJT]

Not possible.
I'm not saying that CSM's aren't beatable - i'm sure there are a few teams out there nailing them, but you can't key against a shuffle you can't watch.
For a start there's no way to tell if your sequence (keys) have been broken up by the shuffle. You are just blindly assuming that it hasn't been - and this is assuming only an automatic shuffler not a CSM. With a CSM most of them these days use carousels style systems so your sequence is almost assured to be broken. If your sequence wasn't broken - assume a 15 card packet went in to one carriage in order and had your sequence within it - you would have exactly 4 cards, no cards in between, to land your ace. Simply not enough time to steer it. You’d have to start steering every time you saw your first key and even then you'd have a dismal success rate.

RJT.

[blackchipjim]

I have looked and did a little research on the csms' and found them to have a slight chink in the armor. The ablity to predict the cards and key cards is dependent on your ablilty to memorize segements and put together segments that follow each other. You can do a patent search on the machine and theorize on segmented shuffles I don't think it is within my capabilities as of yet. I think in theory you really need a machine and track all results from it in order to have a true oppinion. I did the patent search on both bj shuffler and three card poker machines. blackchipjim

[Elhombre]

RJT, you mustn't know how the machine shuffles, you have to control the
results of the shuffle and if someone is able to do this, he has a good
advantage
The advantage is not as high as at handshuffled games.
But sometimes I am very very surprised how I hit the aces and sometimes there is nothing.
The 3 blackjacks in a row before 2 days was a result of my abilities
not of chance.

OK ,I make a big mistake that I post it in a board.

But I feel a bit like a lonely wolf and I am happy to know this forum here
and to know people like Sonny, Zengrifter, AutomaticMonkey and more
here and get answers.
If I would post this at Snyder or Schlesinger there would be no answers
because they want to built a wall of silence about the topic of ace prediction
generally.
(Its the same as Bush or Bernake never would admit now that the $$$$
is dead, sorry gang, but buy gold for your money now).

Till before 3 month my home casino had the ShuffleStar, but I made a
mental mistake.
To track this machine you must remember the key cards before the ace, because the cards are inserted from the end of the shoe to the front.

In future I should shut my mouth about this topic, its better for my survival.
The best to all
rainer

[zengrifter]

I have successfully keyed Aces in 2D shuffling machines, which surprized me. zg

[RJT]

I'm afraid that you'd have to do a lot more than some vague comment about success to convince me that this would work.
These machines - as far as i'm aware - do not use a riffle shuffle, so your cards remain in order in small packets. That being the case, even with 3 key cards to predict the ace, it just doesn't give you enough forewarning that your aces is coming to really influence where it lands (well possibly if you were playing heads up....). Even if your team controlled the table the ace is likely to end up coming out when you can't steer it to be one of your first cards.
If you've got something revolutionary to say on the topic, honestly i'm all ears and what i've said is not meant in any way as a personal attack, but from my experience and understanding of steering, this just doesn't seem feesable.

RJT

[Automatic Monkey]

Originally Posted by RJT

I'm afraid that you'd have to do a lot more than some vague comment about success to convince me that this would work.
These machines - as far as i'm aware - do not use a riffle shuffle, so your cards remain in order in small packets. That being the case, even with 3 key cards to predict the ace, it just doesn't give you enough forewarning that your aces is coming to really influence where it lands (well possibly if you were playing heads up....). Even if your team controlled the table the ace is likely to end up coming out when you can't steer it to be one of your first cards.
If you've got something revolutionary to say on the topic, honestly i'm all ears and what i've said is not meant in any way as a personal attack, but from my experience and understanding of steering, this just doesn't seem feesable.

RJT

CSM play is among the blackest of the black arts and I would strongly advise against giving more than the vaguest details.


Who steers aces? I predict aces.

Well, OK, occasionally I do steer aces in the course of play, but when I do, it's usually to the dealer. Steering aces to the dealer is a powerful tactic.

[RJT]

Originally Posted by Automatic Monkey

CSM play is among the blackest of the black arts and I would strongly advise against giving more than the vaguest details.


Who steers aces? I predict aces.

Well, OK, occasionally I do steer aces in the course of play, but when I do, it's usually to the dealer. Steering aces to the dealer is a powerful tactic.

Ok AM - i put as much faith in what you say as i ever do *sigh*
You have corrected me on one point i'll concead though - i'm thinking steering rather than just predicting when they'll come out.

RJT.

[sagefr0g]

Originally Posted by Automatic Monkey

.......
Who steers aces? I predict aces.
.......

so i guess there would be some advantage according to number of players at the table? like 7 players advantage = ?/7, 6 players advantage = ?/6, ......
and what is the advantage if you know your going to get an ace? circa 50%.
just blabbering here.