11 vs 10 ENHC
- Thread starter mleancole
- Start date
iCountNTrack said:
It is not a matter of wisdom, it is a matter of choosing the optimum play that maximizes your expectation value. 
By the way, what should the index be for KO?
Mike
It's a matter of risk . . . .
At TC+3, there's an increased chance of pulling a 10 to match your 11. But if the dealer pulls an ace you're doubled bet is toast. If you pull anything other than a ten, the dealer is favoured to win - so again the odds are your doubled bet will go south. You could help the call by keeping a separate ace side count so you know how many aces are left in the shoe - although most contributors here agree that for a six deck shoe using hi-lo the advantage of doing so just isn't worth the bother.
I personally wouldn't double 11v10 as, despite the mathematical advantage, as the risk is too high. Same reason I don't double against a dealer 2,3,4 when at TC+3 or higher when I've a "big" bet out. The chances of the dealer pulling a 9,8,7 followed by a 10 are always there and losing a 16 unit bet when I only start a session with 40 or 50 is significant.
To put this in perspective,I play a 1-8 betting ramp and my sums show that when playing all the long term advantage is just a little over 1/3%. But then I don't do it with any expectation of getting anything other than some free adult entertainment.
Does this help? Are you in the UK?
At TC+3, there's an increased chance of pulling a 10 to match your 11. But if the dealer pulls an ace you're doubled bet is toast. If you pull anything other than a ten, the dealer is favoured to win - so again the odds are your doubled bet will go south. You could help the call by keeping a separate ace side count so you know how many aces are left in the shoe - although most contributors here agree that for a six deck shoe using hi-lo the advantage of doing so just isn't worth the bother.
I personally wouldn't double 11v10 as, despite the mathematical advantage, as the risk is too high. Same reason I don't double against a dealer 2,3,4 when at TC+3 or higher when I've a "big" bet out. The chances of the dealer pulling a 9,8,7 followed by a 10 are always there and losing a 16 unit bet when I only start a session with 40 or 50 is significant.
To put this in perspective,I play a 1-8 betting ramp and my sums show that when playing all the long term advantage is just a little over 1/3%. But then I don't do it with any expectation of getting anything other than some free adult entertainment.
Does this help? Are you in the UK?
No I don't. It's a risk issue. I realise that such hands are mathematically advantageous, but for me the risks of losing a doubled bet are greater than the potential rewards.
My spreadsheet (not accurate to the nth degree I'll admit) shows that TC+3 or better only puts an appearance in around 11% of the time. So considering that, and the fact I don't actually play that much (and then only at low stakes), it isn't so much of an issue - the number of times I've not doubled up on A-7v4 and so on at TC+3 are very few indeed. Now if I were playing with the intention of topping up my meagre salary each month, and had taken the time to calculate how much I needed to be adequately capitalised then things would be different. But I don't and I haven't (I don't have a bankroll set aside for playing BJ).
As to missing out on a "huge" advantage, that depends. Not doubling 11v4probably, but not doubling A4v4? - I'm not so sure. What exactly is huge? I think this is another case of the maths being the maths but what they represent in actual £/$s (to me) not being worth getting hot under the collar about. Having said that, when I play the hand I still have the same advantage, I just don't have the potential to win as much money.
How many of you guys bet full Kelly?
My spreadsheet (not accurate to the nth degree I'll admit) shows that TC+3 or better only puts an appearance in around 11% of the time. So considering that, and the fact I don't actually play that much (and then only at low stakes), it isn't so much of an issue - the number of times I've not doubled up on A-7v4 and so on at TC+3 are very few indeed. Now if I were playing with the intention of topping up my meagre salary each month, and had taken the time to calculate how much I needed to be adequately capitalised then things would be different. But I don't and I haven't (I don't have a bankroll set aside for playing BJ).
As to missing out on a "huge" advantage, that depends. Not doubling 11v4probably, but not doubling A4v4? - I'm not so sure. What exactly is huge? I think this is another case of the maths being the maths but what they represent in actual £/$s (to me) not being worth getting hot under the collar about. Having said that, when I play the hand I still have the same advantage, I just don't have the potential to win as much money.
How many of you guys bet full Kelly?
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