12v6?

R

RedChipper

Member
#1
#1
Hey all,

I've been practicing card counting with the hi-lo system for a few months now and keep trying to add indices to my memory. My one and only blackjack book is Wong's 1994 edition of Professional Blackjack.

So one index number is confusing me. The way I'm reading it, the book says to stand at a count of 0 or greater when you have a hard 12v6. But for a hard 12v5, it says to stand at a count of -1 or greater. These strategy numbers are for a S17, multideck game.

I interpret this as you'd rather have the dealer show a 5 than a 6 when you have a hard 12 and that doesn't make any sense to me. I'm really not so interested about the math as much as the intuitive reasoning. Thanks for helping out a novice :eek:
 
C

callipygian

Well-Known Member
#3
#3
RedChipper said:
one index number is confusing me ... I interpret this as you'd rather have the dealer show a 5 than a 6 when you have a hard 12 and that doesn't make any sense to me.
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Your interpretation is fundamentally wrong. The index number doesn't tell you how good a play is, it shows you how close the best play to the second best play is.

Think about it this way, hard 16 vs. dealer 10 has an index of 0 as well. Would you rather have hard 16 vs. dealer 10 or hard 12 vs. dealer 6?
 
Automatic Monkey

Automatic Monkey

Banned
#4
#4
RedChipper said:
Hey all,

I've been practicing card counting with the hi-lo system for a few months now and keep trying to add indices to my memory. My one and only blackjack book is Wong's 1994 edition of Professional Blackjack.

So one index number is confusing me. The way I'm reading it, the book says to stand at a count of 0 or greater when you have a hard 12v6. But for a hard 12v5, it says to stand at a count of -1 or greater. These strategy numbers are for a S17, multideck game.

I interpret this as you'd rather have the dealer show a 5 than a 6 when you have a hard 12 and that doesn't make any sense to me. I'm really not so interested about the math as much as the intuitive reasoning. Thanks for helping out a novice :eek:
Click to expand...
In a S17 game you are slightly more likely to want to hit 12 vs. 6 than against 5 because there's an approximately 1/13 chance that the dealer already has his hand. If he has an ace down there and you have a stiff, you lose, 100% of the time. There is a 0/13 chance that he has his hand when he shows a 5, he will definitely have to draw. So you are less likely to have wished you had hit that 12.

To put it in better perspective, in an H17 game the index for 12 vs. 6 is a larger negative number than for 12 vs. 5. The reason is if he has a soft 17 he's still going to draw and he could bust his hand, in which case your 12 will be good.
 
bj bob

bj bob

Well-Known Member
#6
#6
Automatic Monkey said:
In a S17 game you are slightly more likely to want to hit 12 vs. 6 than against 5 because there's an approximately 1/13 chance that the dealer already has his hand. If he has an ace down there and you have a stiff, you lose, 100% of the time. There is a 0/13 chance that he has his hand when he shows a 5, he will definitely have to draw. So you are less likely to have wished you had hit that 12.

To put it in better perspective, in an H17 game the index for 12 vs. 6 is a larger negative number than for 12 vs. 5. The reason is if he has a soft 17 he's still going to draw and he could bust his hand, in which case your 12 will be good.
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Ah! This is the exact index that you and I were discussing during our last terrorist activity. If I remember correctly, you told me (off the top of your head) that the 12 v. 6 index should be about the same, but slightly less than the 12 v.5, therefore, using that logic if the 12 v. 5 index = -1, then the 12 v.6 index should be -1.5, no? (assuming SD, DD H-17).
 
Automatic Monkey

Automatic Monkey

Banned
#7
#7
bj bob said:
Ah! This is the exact index that you and I were discussing during our last terrorist activity. If I remember correctly, you told me (off the top of your head) that the 12 v. 6 index should be about the same, but slightly less than the 12 v.5, therefore, using that logic if the 12 v. 5 index = -1, then the 12 v.6 index should be -1.5, no? (assuming SD, DD H-17).
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Something like that, and it would be reversed in a S17 game.
 
jack.jackson

jack.jackson

Well-Known Member
#9
#9
bj bob said:
Grazie mille!! :cool2:
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You SC aces right bob? If so, the ace is a big-param card, for this hand. Especially in a S17 game. Two main reasons are. 1. Ace in the hole (6,A). 2. Drawing a Ace on H16+1=17

As you can see the Ace dramatically helps a dealers 6, become pat. Ive hit 12 vs 6 in positive counts on quite a few occasions. 1&2D. Likewise, Ive stood in modest negative counts, when all the ace's (or damn near) were burnt.
 
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bj bob

bj bob

Well-Known Member
#10
#10
jack said:
You SC aces right bob? If so, the ace is a big-param card, for this hand. Especially in a S17 game. Two main reasons are. 1. Ace in the hole (6,A). 2. Drawing a Ace on H16+1=17

As you can see the Ace dramatically helps a dealers 6, become pat. Ive hit 12 vs 6 in positive counts on quite a few occasions. 1&2D. Likewise, Ive stood in modest negative counts, when all the ace's (or damn near) were burnt.
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Yes, I do side count aces plus I reckon 9's as -1. Therefore I believe that there a several cross currents working opposite each other here, e.g if a dealer 6 shows on a high count, she may very well have a 15 rather than a 16 and so her bust possibilities are somewhat lower than at first glance. Being that I play almost all my BJ in Northern Nev. S-17 nor shoes are an issue. I have the same dilemma with the 9 v. 7 index. There lies the confusion.
 
jack.jackson

jack.jackson

Well-Known Member
#11
#11
Top image. 2Deck game S17w/1/2 deck played. Average distrubution.
12v6/
Stand=-15.80
Hit=-16.33

Below: Average distrubution, Except 2 aces short.
Stand=-19.19
Hit=-17.13

KC/software

 

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sagefr0g

sagefr0g

Well-Known Member
#12
#12
jack said:
Top image. 2Deck game S17w/1/2 deck played. Average distrubution.
12v6/
Stand=-15.80
Hit=-16.33

Below: Average distrubution, Except 2 aces short.
Stand=-19.19
Hit=-17.13

KC/software

Click to expand...
jj that somethin new k_c has out. looks pretty kewl. :cat:
 
jack.jackson

jack.jackson

Well-Known Member
#13
#13
Actually this was his first program, before tdca. I purchased this little gadget, about 6 months ago, for a measley 25$. However it has a 15 day free trial, that you can download form here. Just download and unzip. I think it puts it, in all programs, by default. If you cant find it. Look there! This little program is quite entertaining. Im always refering to it, when a dispute breaks out, or someones curious about a paticular hand.

You can also correlate your count to it. Say you wanna know at what count DDS21 becomes higher ev, in a 2deck,DAS,S17 game. Well then this is the program your looking for. KC is the unsung hero.:)

(Dead link: http://www.bjstrat.net/Index.html)
 
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N&B

N&B

Well-Known Member
#14
#14
Try the results again with 2 extra and 2 fewer face cards than std. distribution. Its not the Aces, its the faces.

When the dealer has a five up in a two deck game thats one less five that you can draw with 12. Thus the odds are a bit less. We can say the same with a six, and there is that extra five the Dealer doesn't have face-up. Balanced against the sccenario presented with an Ace being key... the Ace does no good buried under the five, the dealer MUST draw, and usually twice. With Ace under 6 the dealer stands with 17, a bad hand, but stands. If we play the draw percentages on a near standard distribution, we only bust if we draw a Face, and we have one in-hand. Anytime theres a small excess of NON-TENS in a two-deck game, we have a good chance of standing if we draw. That is to say, we lose less than normal, and just a bit less than standing.

Its a combination of 2 decks with limited cards ( higher value when removed) NON tens to 10's, and the all important five. In this case just one extra removed tips the scales.
 
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jack.jackson

jack.jackson

Well-Known Member
#15
#15
N&B said:
Try the results again with 2 extra and 2 fewer face cards than std. distribution. Its not the Aces, its the faces.

When the dealer has a five up in a two deck game thats one less five that you can draw with 12. Thus the odds are a bit less. We can say the same with a six, and there is that extra five the Dealer doesn't have face-up. Balanced against the sccenario presented with an Ace being key... the Ace does no good buried under the five, the dealer MUST draw, and usually twice. With Ace under 6 the dealer stands with 17, a bad hand, but stands. If we play the draw percentages on a near standard distribution, we only bust if we draw a Face, and we have one in-hand. Anytime theres a small excess of NON-TENS in a two-deck game, we have a good chance of standing if we draw. That is to say, we lose less than normal, and just a bit less than standing.

Its a combination of 2 decks with limited cards ( higher value when removed) NON tens to 10's, and the all important five. In this case just one extra removed tips the scales.
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Okay how about this scenario:

Using Hi-opt2, playing a 2deck, S17 game, with 1deck already played w/a rc of +3w/1ace seen(+3/1), holding 12vs6.

Would you stand or would you hit?

Whadaya think the correct play would be?
 
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