2 up card

BLUE

Well-Known Member
Renzey said that a 2 up card has positive odds of 6 to 11. Can anyone show me the math?
 

BLUE

Well-Known Member
Because I never got an answer!!!! Please tell me if the answer is found through math or through simulations.
 

daddybo

Well-Known Member
If I remember correctly.. with a dealer 2 up... the player advantage is something like 9.8% with Basic Strategy. But I could be wrong. :)

The dealer should make a hand 17 - 21 almost 65% of the time. and bust a little better than 35% of the time.

P.S.Don't believe the old saying "the 2 is the dealer's Ace"
 
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QFIT

Well-Known Member
6D, S17, DAS, basic strategy, a total bet advantage of about 8.1%, initial bet advantage of about 9%. This is via simulation and includes the cut-card effect.
 

Sucker

Well-Known Member
Actually, mingled in with all the smart-assed remarks that you got; you DID get a couple of correct answers. If I remember correctly; it was Sonny who gave you the best answer.

To begin with, 6:11 odds means that for every 17 hands you play, you can expect to win six and lose eleven. So if that's what Renzey really DID say, then he has no clue what he's talking about.

When the dealer has a deuce up, the player is a 6:5 favorite; which means that he'll win six hands for every five that he loses. I suspect that this is probably what Mr. Renzey REALLY said, and maybe you misinterpreted his statement.

Rather than give you the MATH for a dealers' deuce upcard, which is a long and complicated equation; it's much easier to just run a sim.

Here's the result of running one million hands with a dealers' deuce up:

Win: 580,008 hands
Lose: 490,007 hands
Push: 63,805 hands

This comes out to a players' expectation of 8.1%; which is right in line with what QFIT is saying.
 

BLUE

Well-Known Member
Everyone gave me the answer...but my question was about process.

OFIT and Sucker said simulation before math. That is what I was looking for........... no math before simulation. Now I know that I can not sit down with pen and paper and work it out.
 
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