Hi all,
I thought I'd share the results of my first 350 hours as a regular AP. I've kept very detailed logs.
EV represents $/hr as reported by CVData plotted as a function of hours played with the conditions and strategy I was playing with at the time. You can consider $0 as the top of my bankroll - anything above that is profit.
Some thoughts:
-My first ~125 hours I look at as my novice card counter stage. I had only read a book or two and was just using Hi Lo with no indicies except for insurance. My betting ramp was simply just multiplying my base unit by the true count. I was thoroughly over-betting my bankroll at the time and happened to win just about all of my max bets due to sheer luck. At this point I was wondering if my huge success was due to dumb luck or actually good strategy, so I decided to invest in CVData and CVX with the extra cash. CVData confirmed my success was mostly due to positive variance.
-The 125 hour mark is where I consider myself going from the novice level to the expert level. Now that I had CVData and CVX, I started to really get in depth with the statistics, and maximizing profitability became almost an obsession to me. I have hundreds of simulations archived exploring literally every little aspect of the game. The jump in EV slope represents me changing strategies to Hi Opt II, ace side count, 25 indicies (and growing), with a c-SCORE optimized betting ramp. I also made the switch from shoe games to double deck.
-I think these results are a great illustration of the concept that no matter how good or bad your strategy is, and no matter how good the playing conditions are, standard deviation will always dominate the short term. I happened to have much better results during my first 125 hours, but as you know that doesn't necessarily mean my strategy or conditions were any good, in fact they were mediocre at best.
-If the beginning of my venture happened to represent the 250 hour mark and beyond, I would have probably given up card counting long ago. I imagine about half of new card counters start on that negative trend and don't have the bankroll to support it, so they give it up forever. The initial positive variance is what got me hooked. I'm willing to bet all of the now seasoned APs here had a similar start to mine (correct me if I'm wrong). I just don't see a player trying to count for the first time sticking out a negative run like that and continuing on...it's not how the human brain works. I've witnessed this with a bunch of my friends who have tried to join me.
-I won't bother griping about how harsh my last 100 hours were because I know a lot of you have been there, and I'd just be preaching to the choir with my sob stories, but I can say that my tolerance to bankroll pain has increased substantially. The statistics tell me I have a lot to look forward to in the long run, and it will sure feel great after a bad start. As long as I can confirm in CVBJ that I'm making zero mistakes even in the most challenging conditions, I'm happy. My last trip was particularly painful - I started with a great +$4500 streak, then lost all of it plus $3000 more I had with me. But I still really don't care, I remember my first time losing $500 was more depressing before I had a true appreciation for standard deviation.
-I'm still up $815 overall, enough to pay for gas and such, and I've acquired about $500 in food and room comps plus close to $1000 worth of free drinks. It's been fun, I've learned a lot and am continuously improving, and I plan to keep at it.
I thought I'd share the results of my first 350 hours as a regular AP. I've kept very detailed logs.
EV represents $/hr as reported by CVData plotted as a function of hours played with the conditions and strategy I was playing with at the time. You can consider $0 as the top of my bankroll - anything above that is profit.
Some thoughts:
-My first ~125 hours I look at as my novice card counter stage. I had only read a book or two and was just using Hi Lo with no indicies except for insurance. My betting ramp was simply just multiplying my base unit by the true count. I was thoroughly over-betting my bankroll at the time and happened to win just about all of my max bets due to sheer luck. At this point I was wondering if my huge success was due to dumb luck or actually good strategy, so I decided to invest in CVData and CVX with the extra cash. CVData confirmed my success was mostly due to positive variance.
-The 125 hour mark is where I consider myself going from the novice level to the expert level. Now that I had CVData and CVX, I started to really get in depth with the statistics, and maximizing profitability became almost an obsession to me. I have hundreds of simulations archived exploring literally every little aspect of the game. The jump in EV slope represents me changing strategies to Hi Opt II, ace side count, 25 indicies (and growing), with a c-SCORE optimized betting ramp. I also made the switch from shoe games to double deck.
-I think these results are a great illustration of the concept that no matter how good or bad your strategy is, and no matter how good the playing conditions are, standard deviation will always dominate the short term. I happened to have much better results during my first 125 hours, but as you know that doesn't necessarily mean my strategy or conditions were any good, in fact they were mediocre at best.
-If the beginning of my venture happened to represent the 250 hour mark and beyond, I would have probably given up card counting long ago. I imagine about half of new card counters start on that negative trend and don't have the bankroll to support it, so they give it up forever. The initial positive variance is what got me hooked. I'm willing to bet all of the now seasoned APs here had a similar start to mine (correct me if I'm wrong). I just don't see a player trying to count for the first time sticking out a negative run like that and continuing on...it's not how the human brain works. I've witnessed this with a bunch of my friends who have tried to join me.
-I won't bother griping about how harsh my last 100 hours were because I know a lot of you have been there, and I'd just be preaching to the choir with my sob stories, but I can say that my tolerance to bankroll pain has increased substantially. The statistics tell me I have a lot to look forward to in the long run, and it will sure feel great after a bad start. As long as I can confirm in CVBJ that I'm making zero mistakes even in the most challenging conditions, I'm happy. My last trip was particularly painful - I started with a great +$4500 streak, then lost all of it plus $3000 more I had with me. But I still really don't care, I remember my first time losing $500 was more depressing before I had a true appreciation for standard deviation.
-I'm still up $815 overall, enough to pay for gas and such, and I've acquired about $500 in food and room comps plus close to $1000 worth of free drinks. It's been fun, I've learned a lot and am continuously improving, and I plan to keep at it.
