4 Or 5 Card 16

[Licentia]

This is a Basic Strategy question. It does not take the count into consideration.

Here is a situation that occurs quite frequently, and I have noticed that the majority of the time, a hit on a 4-5-6 card 16 is a bust.

What happens is that you start out with a hand like 6,7 and you hit and get a 2 for 15, and then you hit and get an A for 16. You hit again because BS tells you to, even though you know you are going to bust.

I am just wondering if at some point, after a certain number of lower cards are dealt to get to 16, that the probability of flipping a face card becomes so high that it would be better just to stand?

If so is there a chart somewhere with these exceptions?

Licentia.

 

[RenoRenagade]

Here is a situation that occurs quite frequently, and I have noticed that the majority of the time, a hit on a 4-5-6 card 16 is a bust.

What happens is that you start out with a hand like 6,7 and you hit and get a 2 for 15, and then you hit and get an A for 16. You hit again because BS tells you to, even though you know you are going to bust.

I am just wondering if at some point, after a certain number of lower cards are dealt to get to 16, that the probability of flipping a face card becomes so high that it would be better just to stand?

If so is there a chart somewhere with these exceptions?

Licentia.

Their called indexes, go look them up.

I wont hit 3 card 15/16 of the count is positive . Maybe is the dealers up card is a T I might hit the 15 and the count is just +1.

Sometimes you go against BS if the count tells you to .

Same with things like Insurance , I will take it with a count +2 or greater everytime.

 

[Licentia]

Their called indexes, go look them up.

I wont hit 3 card 15/16 of the count is positive . Maybe is the dealers up card is a T I might hit the 15 and the count is just +1.

Sometimes you go against BS if the count tells you to .

Same with things like Insurance , I will take it with a count +2 or greater everytime.

Sorry, should have clarified. I am just talking about straight Basic Strategy. Not counting.

LiCeNtIa

 

[EasyRhino]

Well, the counting index for 16v10 is 0. Meaning, at counts of zero or higher, you should hit. It's a razor thin margin.

However, basic strategy is developed for first play off the top of a freshly shuffled deck. So in a realistic case, you've got at least one high card (the dealer's 10) and either a high-and-low card, or two medium cards (your 16). In this case, the running count in now -1.

That's just enough to turn you decision into a "hit" from a stand.

So there's all kinds of fancified basic strategies you can use, which would be slightly more accurate when playing 16v10:

- Stand on any multi card 16 v 10
- Stand on any 16 v 10 if you see any 5s on the felt
- Stand on any multi card 16 v 10 unless there are more 6s than 5s on the felt
- Others I can't remember

(I like the third one).

If you're counting, you should determine your play by the count.

 

[zengrifter]

Sorry, should have clarified. I am just talking about straight Basic Strategy. Not counting.

Perhaps only in 1-2D, not 6-8D, and certainly NOT in CSMs. zg

 

[sagefr0g]

Well, the counting index for 16v10 is 0. Meaning, at counts of zero or higher, you should hit. It's a razor thin margin.
......

i think you meant to say stand if tc>=0, otherwise hit. :cat:

 

[Unshake]

Sorry, should have clarified. I am just talking about straight Basic Strategy. Not counting.

LiCeNtIa

Well if you weren't counting it would just be a complete guess is to if the count as positive or negative... You might assume that yeah, it took me 5 low cards to get my 16 so I'm most likely going to bust, but maybe the count was -15 going into that hand.

Without knowing any additional information about the cards remaining in the shoe it is just a guess. Unless this is the first hand and there are more low cards on the table than high ones, then I would stand. Otherwise, you're just guessing what cards remain.

 

[Kasi]

Sorry, should have clarified. I am just talking about straight Basic Strategy. Not counting. LiCeNtIa

I think you'd be safe adopting the "always stand on all multi-card 16's vs 10", like Rhino said, for 2 or more decks. You could always look around and find specific EV's for all the different combinations of 3-card 16's for your game and make a list if you wanted.

I think in 6 decks, you could amend BS to "Stand on all 4-card A,7's vs A" if you wanted.

There are many more of these potential amendments to BS the fewer the decks.

I think if you actually hit that 6,7,2,A vs 10 in an S17 game, you did the right thing!

 

[quipper]

This is a Basic Strategy question. It does not take the count into consideration.

Here is a situation that occurs quite frequently, and I have noticed that the majority of the time, a hit on a 4-5-6 card 16 is a bust.

What happens is that you start out with a hand like 6,7 and you hit and get a 2 for 15, and then you hit and get an A for 16. You hit again because BS tells you to, even though you know you are going to bust.

I am just wondering if at some point, after a certain number of lower cards are dealt to get to 16, that the probability of flipping a face card becomes so high that it would be better just to stand?

If so is there a chart somewhere with these exceptions?

Licentia.

Always stand with 3 or more card 16 vs 10 from 1D to 8D, even CSM's
Here is a link to what you want http://wizardofodds.com/blackjack/appendix18.html

 

[EasyRhino]

i think you meant to say stand if tc>=0, otherwise hit. :cat:

Usually it's just my east and west I get confused, but today it's been up and down, too. It's okay though, I'm drunk.

 

[jack.jackson]

Usually it's just my east and west I get confused, but today it's been up and down, too. It's okay though, I'm drunk.

For awhile it was clock-wise and counter clock-wise for me, but I think I finally got that one clocked:joker:

 

[Kasi]

Usually it's just my east and west I get confused, but today it's been up and down, too. It's okay though, I'm drunk.

Are you currently employing the proven vodka and Red Bull strategy

My system is different tonite - the boring vodka and OJ strategy lol.

 

[Licentia]

Always stand with 3 or more card 16 vs 10 from 1D to 8D, even CSM's
Here is a link to what you want http://wizardofodds.com/blackjack/appendix18.html

Nice! Thanks.

I found this as well online:

"Suppose you have 10/6 against the dealer's 10 up. A pure basic strategy card says to hit that hand -- and correctly so. But what if you're dealt say, 8/5 against that 10, hit and catch a 3 to make 16? These kinds of specifics go beyond a pure basic strategy chart. Whenever you've taken that ultra-valuable 5 out of play, rendering it unavailable to your lame 16, you should now stand with 16 against a 10!

In fact, anytime your 16 contains either a 4 or a 5, you should stand against a 10 -- but only against a 10. That's called the "Rule of 45." It's correct. You should play by it."


Licentia.

 

[Kasi]

Nice! Thanks.
In fact, anytime your 16 contains either a 4 or a 5, you should stand against a 10 -- but only against a 10. That's called the "Rule of 45." It's correct. You should play by it."[/I] Licentia.

It's a good rule to follow - the exceptions to it are hit a 10,4,2 and 6,6,4
for any number of decks in an S17 game.

Not that it matters lol.