$670k royal flush

[Automatic Monkey]

There must be something different that happens with these machines. If you look at the picture it says he had 711k after hitting the royal so he already had $40k already in the machine.

Probably not a bad idea, if you are playing a $100 machine. You can blow through $400 on a $1 machine in a half hour.

 

[mjbballar23]

Probably not a bad idea, if you are playing a $100 machine. You can blow through $400 on a $1 machine in a half hour.

Apparently you can turn on autopay for jackpots on these high limit machines.

 

[Machinist]

Other gambling forums say that he was playing at the Aria Casino in Las Vegas, invested 10 hours @500 hands/hour and lost about $41k before hitting the Royal Flush. They also say he earned +$100k in comps.

So he runs a half million through a machine.......gets a golden horseshoe up his a$$ and they comp him a 100 grand????
Sounds like a Bob Dancer story.....
Find it hard to believe they would comp him that much ...20%.....hmmmmm
Gotta be more to this story.....or he's just a stone cold degenerate like I said before..

Has anyone found out what game he was playing,,....JOB, deuces, ddbl..?

Machinist

 

[blackjack avenger]

the tax man

He can get the tax forms for small hands, doesn't mean he had to pay if he lost. He can? Get the paperwork from the casino showing actual taxable win

So assuming about 35% taxes if he hits royal?
Was it a good play?

 

[mjbballar23]

So he runs a half million through a machine.......gets a golden horseshoe up his a$$ and they comp him a 100 grand????
Sounds like a Bob Dancer story.....
Find it hard to believe they would comp him that much ...20%.....hmmmmm
Gotta be more to this story.....or he's just a stone cold degenerate like I said before..

Has anyone found out what game he was playing,,....JOB, deuces, ddbl..?

Machinist

I'm sure the 100k in comps number is not accurate but i think everything else is probably right. The game was $100 5 coin 8/5 BP progressive at Aria.

 

[Machinist]

Well just off the top of my head..If this is standard Bonus poker, the game is 99%.
So he was playing a break even game at 670,000$..........assuming zero cash back. Also you have to take into account the Royal proggressive meter...how big was that...usually they are no more than a quarter percent anymore...
So take the taxes out and you have a big loser......
Its possible with a good tax accountant and being he is a pro gambler he could write stuff off.
Just another stone cold lucky degenerate gambler.
Lets just say this vp machine was a 1$ machine..........with a 6700$ prog
To make this play..i would need a large meter on the progressive half % or more, some decent cashback quarter% or more......and they better have some damn nice rooms, and food.
And for Shadrochs benefit........they better have some good booze..... I dont drink..sooooo
Now if this was 9/6 JOB............hell ya !!! its a nice play then....assuming a nice meter, and cash back...


BUT!!!!!! We dont know what the prog meter was.....I have played screwed up meters before..... or the the cash back......both could have been huge..........

Machinist

 

[Jack_Black]

exactamundo. I got 97% return using a VP analyzer at WoO's site. so unless someone else cares to chime about why someone would play this garbage(minus a huge loss rebate) I will assume he's just being a degenerate. Hey, Phil Ivey loses millions on craps all the time.

 

[Billy C1]

Not me (even if I had the bankroll!!!!!)

Unless I'm missing something, this is a VERY "unplayable" vp game. The progressive jackpot would have to be off the charts to make it a 100% game.
Many states of residency (like mine) will NOT let you "wash" gaming wins and losses and that would be a HUGE factor in this scenario. 6.5% state income tax would flat out kill any incentive for me to play it.

BillyC1

 

[aslan]

Well just off the top of my head..If this is standard Bonus poker, the game is 99%.
So he was playing a break even game at 670,000$..........assuming zero cash back. Also you have to take into account the Royal proggressive meter...how big was that...usually they are no more than a quarter percent anymore...
So take the taxes out and you have a big loser......
Its possible with a good tax accountant and being he is a pro gambler he could write stuff off.
Just another stone cold lucky degenerate gambler.
Lets just say this vp machine was a 1$ machine..........with a 6700$ prog
To make this play..i would need a large meter on the progressive half % or more, some decent cashback quarter% or more......and they better have some damn nice rooms, and food.
And for Shadrochs benefit........they better have some good booze..... I dont drink..sooooo
Now if this was 9/6 JOB............hell ya !!! its a nice play then....assuming a nice meter, and cash back...


BUT!!!!!! We dont know what the prog meter was.....I have played screwed up meters before..... or the the cash back......both could have been huge..........

Machinist

What do you mean, the Royal Progression meter? I assumed a VP game must pay off as would be expected on a purely random basis, so each and every VP machine has the same odds for hitting the RSF. So you must mean the meter as to how fast the progressive jackpot builds. I presume that he began playing when it was pretty much near what the payoff was when he won, $670,000. So is that enough of a tilt beyond the normal $400,000 payoff to make this a positive EV machine? The only difference I saw from a typical payout schedule for Bonus Plus was the payment of 40 units instead of 50 units for four 2's, 3's, or 4's.

 

[mjbballar23]

exactamundo. I got 97% return using a VP analyzer at WoO's site. so unless someone else cares to chime about why someone would play this garbage(minus a huge loss rebate) I will assume he's just being a degenerate. Hey, Phil Ivey loses millions on craps all the time.

Where are you getting this 97%? Use Vpgenius.com

 

[Nynefingers]

OK there's been a lot of discussion on this since I chimed in. I thought I had the numbers right when I posted, but apparently several people disagree. So help me out here. I'm not a VP expert. The link in the OP just goes to a pictures showing the screen after the RF hit. The paytable looks like a standard Bonus Poker pay table to me. I went to the WoO Video Poker page and used his analyzer. Without a progressive, that pay table returns 99.166%. The progressive is $670665.60, or 6706.656 credits at a $100 credit. When I plug that into the Wizard's analyzer, it gives me a 100.6518% return. .6518% of $500 is $3.259 per spin in profit. How are other people getting different answers on this?

Second topic...I've never played VP for a progressive, but it was interesting to hear what Machinist said about the jackpot meter. I hadn't considered that at all. Effectively, the jackpot meter is similar to cashback if you're the only one playing for that progressive. If the jackpot meter is 0.5%, the jackpot grows at a rate of $2.50 per hand. If you play until the jackpot hits, you'll eventually get that $2.50/hand back. If you get it back every hand as you play or if it is added to the jackpot and you get it back at the end, it's the same end result. Even just a 0.25% meter and 0.25% cash back on the card will result in almost doubling the hourly rate on this machine. At 800 hands/hr, you're looking at $4600/hr in EV. Depending on the circumstances (meter, cash back, promos, other high roller comps, etc.), it could be worth even more. If you had the BR, it would be nice to be able to play this game with a partner in shifts...sick to dump 10k/hr into it though.

As far as the tax questions...I'm assuming Huck Seed is already claiming a solid profit on his gambling activities for the year, so if his marginal federal tax rate is 35%, then the EV is $4600/hr - 35% = $3000/hr. Even if he shows a net loss by the time he hits the jackpot, he has other gambling income so he'll get to deduct all of the loss. It just effectively reduces the stakes. It turns a $100 machine into a $65 machine. Nothing more complicated that that. That's assuming that the larger reported wins and/or losses don't affect other things such as deductions or credits, but I doubt they do for him. If the expected range of possible wins/losses moves you across tax brackets, that may have some impact also.

Still curious about handpays on a machine like this. It doesn't seem possible that they are handpaying every time he hits trips or better. Does anybody know for sure how this is handled? On a similar note, is there an alternative to just feeding $100 bills into the machine one after another after another? Like can you hand the cashier $30k and get them to make you a ticket for that amount to feed into the machine? I despise the bill acceptors on slot machines and their aversion to accepting my $100 bills...


Edit:

Found this info on twoplustwo

I spoke with him a little bit ago, and asked him if he cared if I shared some of his experience here.

Turns out he was in for around $50k total when he hit it. Told me he saw how big the progressive was on it, went and read some books on video poker to figure out his edge and the correct way to play. Said that when he started playing it he figured there was a 0.65% edge for the player and he felt that he could make about $3 per hand, not including comps he gets as well. He mentioned it was tough to sustain but when he was focused he figured he could get in around 1000 hands per hour. (this is consistent with what some previous posters had assumed as well)

Anyway he'd gone partners on it once prior with no luck. Said he'd done another session on it and won around $10k. He then came back today and just decide to go solo on it. Said he played for about 10 hours total between all his sessions on it.

Not too shabby. Nice little score.

That is definitely at Aria. Usually when someone is playing that high, they deposit front money with the casino or take out a marker and they are given a TITO slip that they can insert into the machine instead of having to feed the machine hundreds.

if you have autopay on jackpots at aria

So it looks like it is actually reasonably possible to get similar hands/hr on this game as us mere mortals could get on a normal VP machine.

 

[mjbballar23]

OK there's been a lot of discussion on this since I chimed in. I thought I had the numbers right when I posted, but apparently several people disagree. So help me out here. I'm not a VP expert. The link in the OP just goes to a pictures showing the screen after the RF hit. The paytable looks like a standard Bonus Poker pay table to me. I went to the WoO Video Poker page and used his analyzer. Without a progressive, that pay table returns 99.166%. The progressive is $670665.60, or 6706.656 credits at a $100 credit. When I plug that into the Wizard's analyzer, it gives me a 100.6518% return. .6518% of $500 is $3.259 per spin in profit. How are other people getting different answers on this?

Second topic...I've never played VP for a progressive, but it was interesting to hear what Machinist said about the jackpot meter. I hadn't considered that at all. Effectively, the jackpot meter is similar to cashback if you're the only one playing for that progressive. If the jackpot meter is 0.5%, the jackpot grows at a rate of $2.50 per hand. If you play until the jackpot hits, you'll eventually get that $2.50/hand back. If you get it back every hand as you play or if it is added to the jackpot and you get it back at the end, it's the same end result. Even just a 0.25% meter and 0.25% cash back on the card will result in almost doubling the hourly rate on this machine. At 800 hands/hr, you're looking at $4600/hr in EV. Depending on the circumstances (meter, cash back, promos, other high roller comps, etc.), it could be worth even more. If you had the BR, it would be nice to be able to play this game with a partner in shifts...sick to dump 10k/hr into it though.

As far as the tax questions...I'm assuming Huck Seed is already claiming a solid profit on his gambling activities for the year, so if his marginal federal tax rate is 35%, then the EV is $4600/hr - 35% = $3000/hr. Even if he shows a net loss by the time he hits the jackpot, he has other gambling income so he'll get to deduct all of the loss. It just effectively reduces the stakes. It turns a $100 machine into a $65 machine. Nothing more complicated that that. That's assuming that the larger reported wins and/or losses don't affect other things such as deductions or credits, but I doubt they do for him. If the expected range of possible wins/losses moves you across tax brackets, that may have some impact also.

Still curious about handpays on a machine like this. It doesn't seem possible that they are handpaying every time he hits trips or better. Does anybody know for sure how this is handled? On a similar note, is there an alternative to just feeding $100 bills into the machine one after another after another? Like can you hand the cashier $30k and get them to make you a ticket for that amount to feed into the machine? I despise the bill acceptors on slot machines and their aversion to accepting my $100 bills...

Nyefingers

Everything you said sounds right. I got 100.65% as well.

- yes, you can give the cashier 30k in cash and get a 30k ticket for the machines

 

[Automatic Monkey]

I'm sure the 100k in comps number is not accurate but i think everything else is probably right. The game was $100 5 coin 8/5 BP progressive at Aria.

We don't know that. Who knows what kind of mailer he had gotten, and if it applied to a machine on that level? If he had gotten a 10X multiplier it would have been just like getting $100 in comps on a $1 machine, which isn't out of the question.

8/5 BP is 99.17%. Royal cycle is 40233, round it down to 40000 for some play mods, that's $20M action per royal. Extra $270665 per RC = 1.35%. Game was 100.52% plus comps.

 

[mjbballar23]

We don't know that. Who knows what kind of mailer he had gotten, and if it applied to a machine on that level? If he had gotten a 10X multiplier it would have been just like getting $100 in comps on a $1 machine, which isn't out of the question.

8/5 BP is 99.17%. Royal cycle is 40233, round it down to 40000 for some play mods, that's $20M action per royal. Extra $270665 per RC = 1.35%. Game was 100.52% plus comps.

Your right I don't know if that comp number was right and I suppose its possible but my initial thought was that it seemed high

 

[The Chaperone]

So many clueless posts in this thread, but Nynefingers finally chimed in and cleared things up. Let me add on with some bullet points:

-The game was very, very +EV, but high variance. Probably a few million required for a BR, maybe 8 figures if you are risk averse.

-He's not getting 800-1000 hands/hr due to the paperwork issues, BUT the paperwork is not as bad as you imagine. For the very high limit games such as this, they just have someone stand and watch you play and record every >$1200 hand and then you sign it and take your copy at the end of the session. Still I'm thinking maybe 300-400 hands/hr which would be about 1k/hr EV.

-Again a lot of you are way wrong about the tax issues. The dude is already a professional gambler who makes a lot of money and I'm sure he files as such. The one real issue he has is not being able to carry over losses to next year if he loses more on this game than he makes the rest of the year, BUT a) he could already be up millions this year and b) he likely files as some type of corporation which allows him to carry over losses. NV has no such state tax on this kind of thing. In fact most states don't. And I'm sure he already has numerous W2-Gs from all sorts of other stuff so it's not like this will change things much. Sure if you are some ploppy counter who never pays taxes, this game would be unplayable, but that's not the case for this guy.

-Lastly, I give him props for topping it all off with a world class picture message Humblebrag caption: "Internet poker is down in the US, but I'm still pressing buttons!" That's good stuff.

 

[The Chaperone]

yes, you can give the cashier 30k in cash and get a 30k ticket for the machines

This was my last point, which I forgot to mention. And yes, there was 40k left in the machine. A lot of people have thought this was crazy but it's completely normal for the stakes he was playing.

 

[Jack_Black]

Nyefingers

Everything you said sounds right. I got 100.65% as well.

- yes, you can give the cashier 30k in cash and get a 30k ticket for the machines

Aha. I entered something incorrectly into the vp analyzer. hey, that's what forums are for! learn here before making a mistake out there.

 

[Machinist]

OK there's been a lot of discussion on this since I chimed in. I thought I had the numbers right when I posted, but apparently several people disagree. So help me out here. I'm not a VP expert. The link in the OP just goes to a pictures showing the screen after the RF hit. The paytable looks like a standard Bonus Poker pay table to me. I went to the WoO Video Poker page and used his analyzer. Without a progressive, that pay table returns 99.166%. The progressive is $670665.60, or 6706.656 credits at a $100 credit. When I plug that into the Wizard's analyzer, it gives me a 100.6518% return. .6518% of $500 is $3.259 per spin in profit. How are other people getting different answers on this?

Second topic...I've never played VP for a progressive, but it was interesting to hear what Machinist said about the jackpot meter. I hadn't considered that at all. Effectively, the jackpot meter is similar to cashback if you're the only one playing for that progressive. If the jackpot meter is 0.5%, the jackpot grows at a rate of $2.50 per hand. If you play until the jackpot hits, you'll eventually get that $2.50/hand back. If you get it back every hand as you play or if it is added to the jackpot and you get it back at the end, it's the same end result. Even just a 0.25% meter and 0.25% cash back on the card will result in almost doubling the hourly rate on this machine. At 800 hands/hr, you're looking at $4600/hr in EV. Depending on the circumstances (meter, cash back, promos, other high roller comps, etc.), it could be worth even more. If you had the BR, it would be nice to be able to play this game with a partner in shifts...sick to dump 10k/hr into it though.

As far as the tax questions...I'm assuming Huck Seed is already claiming a solid profit on his gambling activities for the year, so if his marginal federal tax rate is 35%, then the EV is $4600/hr - 35% = $3000/hr. Even if he shows a net loss by the time he hits the jackpot, he has other gambling income so he'll get to deduct all of the loss. It just effectively reduces the stakes. It turns a $100 machine into a $65 machine. Nothing more complicated that that. That's assuming that the larger reported wins and/or losses don't affect other things such as deductions or credits, but I doubt they do for him. If the expected range of possible wins/losses moves you across tax brackets, that may have some impact also.

Still curious about handpays on a machine like this. It doesn't seem possible that they are handpaying every time he hits trips or better. Does anybody know for sure how this is handled? On a similar note, is there an alternative to just feeding $100 bills into the machine one after another after another? Like can you hand the cashier $30k and get them to make you a ticket for that amount to feed into the machine? I despise the bill acceptors on slot machines and their aversion to accepting my $100 bills...


Edit:

Found this info on twoplustwo







So it looks like it is actually reasonably possible to get similar hands/hr on this game as us mere mortals could get on a normal VP machine.

Very nice nyne...
Like I said.....if it was a 1$ machine, I wouldn't be interested in 32.5cents a hand at bonus poker. Unless it had a 1\2 to 1% meter.....The cashback now days on VP is usually half or less than pts for slot play.
Variance on single line is huge.....as anybody that has played the game a lot will attest to. Try going 3 cycles without a royal...!!!
Huck's risk vs reward wasn't where I like to be.
BUT I will say there is nothing wrong with taking a 'shot' at something like that. Well not that but something above my bankroll once in a while....
I do own a 5000$ 3 man tent.......thanks to a small 4hr. shot I took at foxwoods and 5$ pickem poker many years ago.
Interesting thingabout prog. Meters.......was on chat a few days ago discussing meters on slots with a few guys. The difference between a 1\4% and 1\2% is so huge......
Yet it seems so tiny......

Machinist

 

[tthree]

Very nice nyne...
Like I said.....if it was a 1$ machine, I wouldn't be interested in 32.5cents a hand at bonus poker. Unless it had a 1\2 to 1% meter.....The cashback now days on VP is usually half or less than pts for slot play.
Variance on single line is huge.....as anybody that has played the game a lot will attest to. Try going 3 cycles without a royal...!!!
Huck's risk vs reward wasn't where I like to be.
BUT I will say there is nothing wrong with taking a 'shot' at something like that. Well not that but something above my bankroll once in a while....
I do own a 5000$ 3 man tent.......thanks to a small 4hr. shot I took at foxwoods and 5$ pickem poker many years ago.
Interesting thingabout prog. Meters.......was on chat a few days ago discussing meters on slots with a few guys. The difference between a 1\4% and 1\2% is so huge......
Yet it seems so tiny......

Machinist

100% DIFFERENCE. That sounds huge to me.

 

[aslan]

So many clueless posts in this thread, but Nynefingers finally chimed in and cleared things up. Let me add on with some bullet points:

-The game was very, very +EV, but high variance. Probably a few million required for a BR, maybe 8 figures if you are risk averse.

-He's not getting 800-1000 hands/hr due to the paperwork issues, BUT the paperwork is not as bad as you imagine. For the very high limit games such as this, they just have someone stand and watch you play and record every >$1200 hand and then you sign it and take your copy at the end of the session. Still I'm thinking maybe 300-400 hands/hr which would be about 1k/hr EV.

-Again a lot of you are way wrong about the tax issues. The dude is already a professional gambler who makes a lot of money and I'm sure he files as such. The one real issue he has is not being able to carry over losses to next year if he loses more on this game than he makes the rest of the year, BUT a) he could already be up millions this year and b) he likely files as some type of corporation which allows him to carry over losses. NV has no such state tax on this kind of thing. In fact most states don't. And I'm sure he already has numerous W2-Gs from all sorts of other stuff so it's not like this will change things much. Sure if you are some ploppy counter who never pays taxes, this game would be unplayable, but that's not the case for this guy.

-Lastly, I give him props for topping it all off with a world class picture message Humblebrag caption: "Internet poker is down in the US, but I'm still pressing buttons!" That's good stuff.

You're right about the professional aspect, however, that does not help as much as you might think. Even on Schedule C, gambling winnings can only be offset by gambling losses up to the amount of the winnings minus business expenses, but at least losses are not subject to the Schedule D 2% limitation. There is no carryover of gambling losses on schedule C. Also, they are still subject to self employment taxes. To avoid self employment taxes, the gambler must form a separate entity, a corporation or equivalent.

ps-- I do believe the law precludes the carryover of gambling losses even under a corporate structure, same as it does under a Sch C filing.