always loss in BIG counts
- Thread starter beyondbj
- Start date
Very insightful.
I agree though. High counts can be as hazardous as they are advantageous, especially if like me you don't play often enough for the peaks and troughs to start averaging out. Perhaps one reason why some people who learn to count get their fingers burnt early on and give it up as a bad job.
My most recent visit to the house of chance was a case in point. When the count finally got up past TC+1 (and hovered around TC+3 for five rounds) I lost every single hand I played - if I'd flat betted my losses from that visit would have been halved. Although I haven't played much since learning the game I have learned to live with it - although it is f---king irritating when the player next door wins £60 on the perfect pairs side bet (at a six point something per cent disadvantage) when you know the house edge has been in your favour for the last five hands! ! ! !
I agree though. High counts can be as hazardous as they are advantageous, especially if like me you don't play often enough for the peaks and troughs to start averaging out. Perhaps one reason why some people who learn to count get their fingers burnt early on and give it up as a bad job.
My most recent visit to the house of chance was a case in point. When the count finally got up past TC+1 (and hovered around TC+3 for five rounds) I lost every single hand I played - if I'd flat betted my losses from that visit would have been halved. Although I haven't played much since learning the game I have learned to live with it - although it is f---king irritating when the player next door wins £60 on the perfect pairs side bet (at a six point something per cent disadvantage) when you know the house edge has been in your favour for the last five hands! ! ! !
newb99 said:
Very insightful.
I agree though. High counts can be as hazardous as they are advantageous, especially if like me you don't play often enough for the peaks and troughs to start averaging out. Perhaps one reason why some people who learn to count get their fingers burnt early on and give it up as a bad job.
My most recent visit to the house of chance was a case in point. When the count finally got up past TC+1 (and hovered around TC+3 for five rounds) I lost every single hand I played - if I'd flat betted my losses from that visit would have been halved. Although I haven't played much since learning the game I have learned to live with it - although it is f---king irritating when the player next door wins £60 on the perfect pairs side bet (at a six point something per cent disadvantage) when you know the house edge has been in your favour for the last five hands! ! ! !
I agree though. High counts can be as hazardous as they are advantageous, especially if like me you don't play often enough for the peaks and troughs to start averaging out. Perhaps one reason why some people who learn to count get their fingers burnt early on and give it up as a bad job.
My most recent visit to the house of chance was a case in point. When the count finally got up past TC+1 (and hovered around TC+3 for five rounds) I lost every single hand I played - if I'd flat betted my losses from that visit would have been halved. Although I haven't played much since learning the game I have learned to live with it - although it is f---king irritating when the player next door wins £60 on the perfect pairs side bet (at a six point something per cent disadvantage) when you know the house edge has been in your favour for the last five hands! ! ! !
Beyond
This is truly a major problem with counting systems and playing as you are instructed in books and software.
Counting and knowing the composition is truly powerfull but the problem comes in how you handle that information, which again is very powerfull.
I have learned over the years how to manipulate that information and go by the math to win, and I seldom lose a session. One thing I do not do is approach it as a religion where I go lockstep with what I have read or been told to do by the "Experts". I have become my own expert.
CP
This is truly a major problem with counting systems and playing as you are instructed in books and software.
Counting and knowing the composition is truly powerfull but the problem comes in how you handle that information, which again is very powerfull.
I have learned over the years how to manipulate that information and go by the math to win, and I seldom lose a session. One thing I do not do is approach it as a religion where I go lockstep with what I have read or been told to do by the "Experts". I have become my own expert.
CP
Couldn't have said it better myself. Think about this .... When the count is going up unusually fast, it is because lots of small cards are being dealt. This is actually beneficial to the dealer. You usually won't start winning a lot until the count begins to decline. If you run out of deck before that happens, you end up with a lot max bet losses It's why penetration is important for all players.
While this is true, you don't know if the count has reached it's pinnacle until after the fact. Case in point: count has been going up for a couple hands, has reached +10 with 2 decks remaining. You don't know if the next round is going to yeild more small cards as the count continues to grow or if the high cards in abundance will come out. What you do know is that right now you have a 2% advantage and many extra aces/tens remain. The whole object of counting is to identify these situations. If you continue to bet small because the count has not yet started down, You miss out on that hand being played with that advantage. So the next round when you draw a BJ, you have your minimum wager out. Since 6 other high cards were dealt that round, the running count is now +2. (true count +1) The count has finally started down. Are you placing your big wager now?? +1 is an even game.
Of course that happens, as does losing many hands in a high count at times. If you choose to play a nagitive count, say tc -2, it just means that the house edge has increase 1% from whatever the initial edge was for that game, say .5% inital edge to 1.5 % at tc -2. It's still fairly close to an even game, which means you could almost as easily have a winning streak as a losing streak. But this is short term. Over the long run, you will lose more than win. If you don't beleive me, and still think you "always" win the shoes with negative counts, try wonging in only on negative counts and see how that works out for ya over the long run.
That's not what I'm meaning to say... ( I don't think I mentioned anything about advantage) What I'm saying is sometime the count rises very high very fast and the "big ones" haven't started coming yet... then the shoe ends. I'm not saying anything except that it's one reason you don't win at times in high counts. The shoe ends before you get the good cards. And even if you get good cards ..you can still lose.
Except you lose when it's not dealt. Just because you have a numerical advantage doesn't mean you are going to get the "good" cards. If that were true you would always win in a + count.
And don't start with that you can't guess when your going to get the good cards stuff. Everybody knows that...If you could everybody would win.
Except you lose when it's not dealt. Just because you have a numerical advantage doesn't mean you are going to get the "good" cards. If that were true you would always win in a + count.
And don't start with that you can't guess when your going to get the good cards stuff. Everybody knows that...If you could everybody would win.
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You don't always lose in High Counts:
Although.... you have BIG loses in High Counts when the cards aren't running your way, the fact is the win/loss/tie percentages only changes very little as shown in the images below. The left image are the results of a 400 million hand sim 4.5/6d game play all which had a SCORE of 34.57.
when big number of TC comes out early and it keep to the end of the shoe
This one line alone so much more reinforces the case that deep penetration provides you the opportunity to see those high cards you are looking for.
The second image is a 200 million sim with 5.5/6d game play all (same rules as above) which had a SCORE of 91.17. The W/L/T percentages are not much different at the TC+2, but notice how the deeper pen brings in much higher TC's and more ties as the count goes TC+3 and higher while lowering the percentage of losses.
More ties, less loses in high counts with big bets... not a bad trade off.
Now compare the N0:
The first sim is 28,983
The second is 10,969
You will have to beat your head against the wall for approx. 362 hours riding that crazy wave up and down and losing those big counts more often, while the smart players waiting for the better games will have less bumps and bruises as they play only 137 hours.
One third the ride for the same result.
So I would have to guess that your playing a game with poor to mediocre pen as I so foolishly have done in the past, put up with the huge high count losses just to win it back at a snails pace in the neutral counts hour after hour, So foolish was I!
Now I'm not saying that this is the only reason for the big lose, high count routs we all encounter, but if you have encountered more then some of your counterparts, take a closer look at the game your playing.
No Voodoo here, Just my thoughts.
BJC
Although.... you have BIG loses in High Counts when the cards aren't running your way, the fact is the win/loss/tie percentages only changes very little as shown in the images below. The left image are the results of a 400 million hand sim 4.5/6d game play all which had a SCORE of 34.57.
when big number of TC comes out early and it keep to the end of the shoe
This one line alone so much more reinforces the case that deep penetration provides you the opportunity to see those high cards you are looking for.
The second image is a 200 million sim with 5.5/6d game play all (same rules as above) which had a SCORE of 91.17. The W/L/T percentages are not much different at the TC+2, but notice how the deeper pen brings in much higher TC's and more ties as the count goes TC+3 and higher while lowering the percentage of losses.
More ties, less loses in high counts with big bets... not a bad trade off.
Now compare the N0:
The first sim is 28,983
The second is 10,969
You will have to beat your head against the wall for approx. 362 hours riding that crazy wave up and down and losing those big counts more often, while the smart players waiting for the better games will have less bumps and bruises as they play only 137 hours.
One third the ride for the same result.
So I would have to guess that your playing a game with poor to mediocre pen as I so foolishly have done in the past, put up with the huge high count losses just to win it back at a snails pace in the neutral counts hour after hour, So foolish was I!
Now I'm not saying that this is the only reason for the big lose, high count routs we all encounter, but if you have encountered more then some of your counterparts, take a closer look at the game your playing.
No Voodoo here, Just my thoughts.
BJC
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Well it sounded like you were one of those counters that advocates not betting big until the count begins to retreat or come down. I just read if again, and to be honest, I still thought thats what you were saying. Apparently that's not what you were saying or meant to say, so I apoligize for misinterpreting your post.