I'm pretty new to blackjack and counting cards. I've been playing since September of 2010. So far I've done pretty well. I haven't kept the meticulous records I've seen many other people keep on this forum, though, but I know I've definitely made money, in the thousands of dollars (vowing to keep records starting now). I've actually gotten pretty good at counting using the KO Method (maybe not by professional standards but I can keep the count in a casino environment). What I am trying to decide is if I've just been lucky so far or not.
I 'think" I understand the basic concepts behind EV and SD when I read about it in books (though I don't know how to actually calculate it myself). Unfortunately, the math about the expected return is a bit baffling to me. I'm 30 years old and used to consider myself great at math (I caught on to counting very quickly because I can do mental math pretty easily) but I haven't used it on a very high level professionally (went to culinary school and work as a chef). I know there are some people that actually make a living playing blackjack (not that many people but they do exist). Page 111 of the KO book has the expected return for all the iterations of the KO system. The Preferred category on a six deck shoe (I live in the midwest and play on river boat casinos) has an expected return of .73% using a betting spread of 1-10 units. Does this mean that my expected return on each hand is only .73% percent ($0.04 with initial bets of $5)? I'm having trouble understanding how someone could actually turn this into a long term profitable exercise if you would only average $4 for every 100 hands played (I know a pro would probably be playing with higher denominations than $5).
While I really enjoy playing blackjack and I find card counting stimulating, I'm asking myself why bother if I'm actually understanding the concept of expected return properly. All the books that I've read so far (the KO book, Blackjack Bluebook II, and beat the dealer... just ordered Blackbelt in Blackjack and Blackjack Attack) proclaim, early on in the book, that blackjack can be beaten by the informed player. The way the books talk at the beginning gives the player the idea that you can make the kind of money the casinos are making off the uninformed gamblers. But then towards the middle or end of the books the hope kind of idea when they start talking about EV and SD. My current understand of it (and I'm hoping I'm wrong) is that counting gives such a small advantage that you might as well not even bother.
Any help or explanation you can give would be greatly appreciated. I've enjoyed reading everything that has been posted in these forums, and hopefully I'll get more up to speed on the math part of this hobby/venture soon. From what I gather, there are other ways of gaining an advantage at blackjack that counting, so I'm going to post an introduction and a question in the Advanced Strategies section of the forum, as well. Thanks.
I 'think" I understand the basic concepts behind EV and SD when I read about it in books (though I don't know how to actually calculate it myself). Unfortunately, the math about the expected return is a bit baffling to me. I'm 30 years old and used to consider myself great at math (I caught on to counting very quickly because I can do mental math pretty easily) but I haven't used it on a very high level professionally (went to culinary school and work as a chef). I know there are some people that actually make a living playing blackjack (not that many people but they do exist). Page 111 of the KO book has the expected return for all the iterations of the KO system. The Preferred category on a six deck shoe (I live in the midwest and play on river boat casinos) has an expected return of .73% using a betting spread of 1-10 units. Does this mean that my expected return on each hand is only .73% percent ($0.04 with initial bets of $5)? I'm having trouble understanding how someone could actually turn this into a long term profitable exercise if you would only average $4 for every 100 hands played (I know a pro would probably be playing with higher denominations than $5).
While I really enjoy playing blackjack and I find card counting stimulating, I'm asking myself why bother if I'm actually understanding the concept of expected return properly. All the books that I've read so far (the KO book, Blackjack Bluebook II, and beat the dealer... just ordered Blackbelt in Blackjack and Blackjack Attack) proclaim, early on in the book, that blackjack can be beaten by the informed player. The way the books talk at the beginning gives the player the idea that you can make the kind of money the casinos are making off the uninformed gamblers. But then towards the middle or end of the books the hope kind of idea when they start talking about EV and SD. My current understand of it (and I'm hoping I'm wrong) is that counting gives such a small advantage that you might as well not even bother.
Any help or explanation you can give would be greatly appreciated. I've enjoyed reading everything that has been posted in these forums, and hopefully I'll get more up to speed on the math part of this hobby/venture soon. From what I gather, there are other ways of gaining an advantage at blackjack that counting, so I'm going to post an introduction and a question in the Advanced Strategies section of the forum, as well. Thanks.
