Another crazy idea

[ohbehave]

I'm not saying it's personal. I imagine how I would feel, however, if I had to explain same thing over and over again One thing to note here is that I do understand the advantage card counting gives you. And I do understand the concept that in the long run you gonna lose playing progression. But nothing is that simple and with every case I like to do my own case study. That's just how I am. Almost definitely I would come to the same conclusions in the end. But in the process I may learn something that might be useful to me and at the very least, it is fun to learn

I learn something new on this board it seems every day. In fact, just yesterday I gleaned something from a forum post that I expect will help me take my game to the next level.

 

[justme]

Promotions are a different story. Promotions change the rule of the game heavily. Even if they pay you a part of your losses after a certain time, it can be quite profitably turning a -EV game into a +EV situation. But again, this is a different story.

Promotions was just a comparison. As soon as get my hands on Verete or other sim, I wanna check how often one goes up $60 with stop-loss $200.

Think of two painters, whose jobs are to reproduce pictures of other artists. The one painter tells you everything about brush types and paint consistency, and how he is able to reproduce those Rembrandts and other stuff. You would like to believe him that he can make some money with this kind of business.

The other painter tries to tell you the same story about paint and brushes. You immediatly notice that this man is BLIND. Without listening to his storeiy, you just ask "You are blind man, how do you do your business..." and he just ignores that and tells you "Look, I have these brushes and paint, and I mix it with ...".

It is so freaking obvious that you need your eyesight to be able to pursue your business of painting. And it is so freaking obvious that you need an edge if you want to succeed in advantage play.

Certain Aerosmith song comes to mind But to use information to make money is one thing, listening to stories is another. I don't see anything wrong with the latter.

 

[justme]

Well if you're flat betting $10 you're going to lose. You're only going to win 43% of your hands. You may have a few good days but they will be well more than offset by bad days. If you're betting $10 some hands and $20 on other hands you're going to lose. The cards don't know what you're betting and even if they did they wouldn't care. A 2:1 spread isn't enough to beat any game, especially when you don't know when to bet more or when to bet less.

Ok. Let's make some assumptions here. You bet $10 if you lose bet $20. Do you agree that you have the better chance of winning $10 than losing $30? Now here is the problem. As you put it, your good days will be more than offset by bad days. Of course. You need 3 $10 winnings to offset your $30 loss. And because of the house edge you lose in the long run. But what if you would have initial amount of money for free? When you start playing your chance of winning or loosing $200 are 50-house edge/50. Now what I'm wondering is if house edge can be offset by fluctuations that happen in the game all the time. If you've already won $60 you do have better chance to win than when you've started the game. let's say you put aside these 60 and use it as a last step in your progression. Now chances of winning $200 playing $10 $20 $60 are higher than playing $10 $20. But when you lose you lose not $30 but $90. $60 out of these $90 however, are your winnings. Now let's say you've lost these $90. What are the chances that it will fluctuate in your favor again? Well the same as when you started the game.

The bottom line....I really need to run sim and see what happens

 

[21gunsalute]

Ok. Let's make some assumptions here. You bet $10 if you lose bet $20. Do you agree that you have the better chance of winning $10 than losing $30?...

You need to understand an important concept here: Winning or losing the previous hand has no bearing on whether you win or lose the next hand! Therefore, you still have a better chance of losing the $20 bet than you do winning it. Your expectation is to win 43% of your hands if you play perfect BS (much less if you don't). It doesn't matter how much you wager on the hand. It doesn't matter if you won or lost the previous hand. It doesn't matter if you've won 10 hands in a row or lost 10 hands in a row. Streaks will surely happen, but there is no relaible way of predicting them. There is no way of knowing if a streak will continue for 1 more hand or if it will stop, and that goes for any streak, even a streak of 1 win or loss. Basing your next bet on whether you won or lost the last bet is nothing but foolhardy.

 

[MangoJ]

The bottom line....I really need to run sim and see what happens

yaddayadda....

You should get a pencil.
Step 1. Formulate your betting system so that there is no question about what to bet at any time.
Step 2. Write all combinations of wins and losses of, say, 5 hands in a list. Ignore pushes and doubles/splits. Hint: those are 2^5 = 32 possible sequences.
Step 3. Apply your betting system to each of those sequences. Be very strict in following your betting system (as on the paper you know your future wins/losses, when betting in a real game you don't know). Note down the total win or loss in that sequence.
Step 4. Calculate the probability of each sequence. If you have 5 hands, multiply 0.505 for each each loss occuring, and 0.495 for each win occuring in that sequence with at least . For the sequence WWLWL it would be 0.495*0.495*0.505*0.495*0.505 = 0.030931313
Step 5. Add up all probabilities. How close do you get to 1.000000000 ?
Step 6. For each sequence, multiply the probability with the win/loss, call that the expected win/loss.
Step 7. Add up all expected wins/losses, and divide by the number you got in Step 5.

I bet my house (and my wife:laugh that (if steps followed correctly) your resulting number will be NEGATIVE.