Another does this work thread?

#1
So I am new to all of this and have never read a thing about card counting or this Martingale guy, but I came up with a betting strategy that i thought would be fun if nothing else which has really worked well. I'm not a big gambler so I wasn't betting a ton of money, but both weeks I was in St louis on business I went to the casinos most nights cause there isn't a lot of better things to do there. Both weeks I left with $1,200 in my pocket. So it got me thinking that either I'm lucky as hell or there is some math to my strategy. I've since played it online in fake games and at first i struggled because I wasn't respecting my bankroll which I have learned to do. Once i was able to do that I have turned $1500 into over $30,000 in the past couple of weeks. I'll tell you my strategy and why I think it might work and y'all can blow all the holes in it so i don't go and blow a bunch of money at the casino...

I start with let's say $500 and place a bet of $30. If i lose i double my bet and I continue to do that for 5 rounds. If I lose 5 times in a row, then i have lost most of the $500. At which point I pull out $500 more and start again. As I start to get some money going from this I methodocally increase my starting bets by $5 every time my chip stack has increased by $150 so I will still lose it all if I lose 5 in a row.

The trick here is to have a stopping point on the upside as well. Of course in a real casino you would have to switch tables as the betting amounts increase so you don't get caught by the max bet. My stopping point is when I have turned that $500 into $2000. I am tending to get to $2000 about one out of every 3.5 times I play which means every four times i go around I should be up about $250 on average.

The best way i can come up with to describe it is maybe the increased bets are giving me the opportunities to double down and get BJ on larger amounts even though i am only trying to win $30. If I lose 4 in a row and then get a BJ, then my chip stack jumps! I actually calculated the amount of extra money I was making from the BJ's and double downs for 800 hands and came up with about $1,500. The other thought I had was that it sort of combines the strategy of chasing your losses and increasing your bets as you win.

I've actually tracked it to see what it would look like if I decided to only stop whenever I had turned $500 into $50,000. So far i would have done that twice in the past week, which would have brought me $100,000 and there is no way I have lost 5 times in a row 1,000 times in the past week, cause I have just played a little here and there.

Thoughts??
 

Unshake

Well-Known Member
#2
bpastermack said:
So I am new to all of this and have never read a thing about card counting or this Martingale guy, but I came up with a betting strategy that i thought would be fun if nothing else which has really worked well. I'm not a big gambler so I wasn't betting a ton of money, but both weeks I was in St louis on business I went to the casinos most nights cause there isn't a lot of better things to do there. Both weeks I left with $1,200 in my pocket. So it got me thinking that either I'm lucky as hell or there is some math to my strategy. I've since played it online in fake games and at first i struggled because I wasn't respecting my bankroll which I have learned to do. Once i was able to do that I have turned $1500 into over $30,000 in the past couple of weeks. I'll tell you my strategy and why I think it might work and y'all can blow all the holes in it so i don't go and blow a bunch of money at the casino...

I start with let's say $500 and place a bet of $30. If i lose i double my bet and I continue to do that for 5 rounds. If I lose 5 times in a row, then i have lost most of the $500. At which point I pull out $500 more and start again. As I start to get some money going from this I methodocally increase my starting bets by $5 every time my chip stack has increased by $150 so I will still lose it all if I lose 5 in a row.

The trick here is to have a stopping point on the upside as well. Of course in a real casino you would have to switch tables as the betting amounts increase so you don't get caught by the max bet. My stopping point is when I have turned that $500 into $2000. I am tending to get to $2000 about one out of every 3.5 times I play which means every four times i go around I should be up about $250 on average.

The best way i can come up with to describe it is maybe the increased bets are giving me the opportunities to double down and get BJ on larger amounts even though i am only trying to win $30. If I lose 4 in a row and then get a BJ, then my chip stack jumps! I actually calculated the amount of extra money I was making from the BJ's and double downs for 800 hands and came up with about $1,500. The other thought I had was that it sort of combines the strategy of chasing your losses and increasing your bets as you win.

I've actually tracked it to see what it would look like if I decided to only stop whenever I had turned $500 into $50,000. So far i would have done that twice in the past week, which would have brought me $100,000 and there is no way I have lost 5 times in a row 1,000 times in the past week, cause I have just played a little here and there.

Thoughts??
Look at almost all of the other threads in the section titled "Vodoo." Betting systems don't work, check out http://www.blackjackincolor.com/useless4.htm .

Losing a hand doesn't really say anything about the next hand, you are still betting with a disadvantage.

Also check out the sticky at the top of the forum (http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showthread.php?t=7109) there are a ton of links further explaining betting systems.

Edit: Also, no math behind it you just got lucky :) Congrats.
 

kewljason

Well-Known Member
#3
unshake is right. There just is no progressive betting system that will overcome a game in which the house has an initial edge. PERIOD. Not on a long term basis. If there was, in this age of technology, don't you think it would have been discovered long ago.
 
#4
Unshake said:
Look at almost all of the other threads in the section titled "Vodoo." Betting systems don't work, check out http://www.blackjackincolor.com/useless4.htm .

Losing a hand doesn't really say anything about the next hand, you are still betting with a disadvantage.

Also check out the sticky at the top of the forum (http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showthread.php?t=7109) there are a ton of links further explaining betting systems.

Edit: Also, no math behind it you just got lucky :) Congrats.
I can fully see why the Martingale system would not work since if you ever lost 12 hands in a row like I have several time, then you would lose everything and then some. With my system though, you would have lost $1,000. Then you you go on a string of not losing 5 in a row again after that, then you make $1,500 and you're ahead.

I tend to agree that losing one hand has no indication on the next hand, although from what i have read losing streaks actually have a higher frequency than winning streaks, which makes sense.

I've read some threads that seem to indicate that there is no predictability to BJ, which is a joke, because nothing is more predictable in the long run. I can see why this betting system would have no value in any game I have found except in BJ. I think this has something to do with the BJ and double down opportunities that will present themselves while more chips are on the table. Does anyone know a good BJ simulator that I can actually place all of those criteria in and see what it comes up with, just out of curiosities sake? It would probably save me a lot of time of continuing to play this game.
 
#5
bpastermack said:
So I am new to all of this and have never read a thing about card counting or this Martingale guy, but I came up with a betting strategy that i thought would be fun if nothing else which has really worked well. I'm not a big gambler so I wasn't betting a ton of money, but both weeks I was in St louis on business I went to the casinos most nights cause there isn't a lot of better things to do there. Both weeks I left with $1,200 in my pocket. So it got me thinking that either I'm lucky as hell or there is some math to my strategy. I've since played it online in fake games and at first i struggled because I wasn't respecting my bankroll which I have learned to do. Once i was able to do that I have turned $1500 into over $30,000 in the past couple of weeks. I'll tell you my strategy and why I think it might work and y'all can blow all the holes in it so i don't go and blow a bunch of money at the casino...

I start with let's say $500 and place a bet of $30. If i lose i double my bet and I continue to do that for 5 rounds. If I lose 5 times in a row, then i have lost most of the $500. At which point I pull out $500 more and start again. As I start to get some money going from this I methodocally increase my starting bets by $5 every time my chip stack has increased by $150 so I will still lose it all if I lose 5 in a row.

The trick here is to have a stopping point on the upside as well. Of course in a real casino you would have to switch tables as the betting amounts increase so you don't get caught by the max bet. My stopping point is when I have turned that $500 into $2000. I am tending to get to $2000 about one out of every 3.5 times I play which means every four times i go around I should be up about $250 on average.

The best way i can come up with to describe it is maybe the increased bets are giving me the opportunities to double down and get BJ on larger amounts even though i am only trying to win $30. If I lose 4 in a row and then get a BJ, then my chip stack jumps! I actually calculated the amount of extra money I was making from the BJ's and double downs for 800 hands and came up with about $1,500. The other thought I had was that it sort of combines the strategy of chasing your losses and increasing your bets as you win.

I've actually tracked it to see what it would look like if I decided to only stop whenever I had turned $500 into $50,000. So far i would have done that twice in the past week, which would have brought me $100,000 and there is no way I have lost 5 times in a row 1,000 times in the past week, cause I have just played a little here and there.

Thoughts??
Go for it! Come back after you have tried your system with real money and tell us how you have done. Enough with bull---- syms. Keep it real dude. Be a man not someone with a paperass.
 

MoneyPlays

Well-Known Member
#6
Fuzzy Math

From the info you've given, 5 losses in a row would equal a dollar loss of $930. You're over-betting your bankroll and your knowledge of the game. Stick to the fake games.
 
#7
MoneyPlays said:
From the info you've given, 5 losses in a row would equal a dollar loss of $930. You're over-betting your bankroll and your knowledge of the game. Stick to the fake games.
True, sorry, I got mixed up cause I'm now playing with $1,000 bank rolls, but when I started I was using $500 at a time. Of course $15 would be the appropriate starting bet in that case.
 
#8
InPlay said:
Go for it! Come back after you have tried your system with real money and tell us how you have done. Enough with bull---- syms. Keep it real dude. Be a man not someone with a paperass.
Not sure if you missed the begining of what I said but I tried the real thing first and made 2,400. I would have to play for like a year non stop in a real casino in order to figure out if the system works, because luck one way or the other would have too much effect. online I can play games and 10 times the speed, so I can play for like a month and save myself a lot of time, or if a simulator actually would take all those parameters, then it would really save me some time. Besides, according to what most people here say I'd be a "stupid" man for putting any real money on this system.
 

rrwoods

Well-Known Member
#9
This thread is a gem -- bpastermack seems willing to actually *talk* about his system rather than simply vigorously defend it in the face of the math. Let's not all jump on him about "progressions are for suckers blah blah". I mean, yeah, progressions really are for suckers :laugh:... But bpastermack is willing to actually engage in intelligent discussion as to why. Don't quash that! It's what this subforum is for!
 

kewljason

Well-Known Member
#10
rrwoods said:
This thread is a gem -- bpastermack seems willing to actually *talk* about his system rather than simply vigorously defend it in the face of the math. Let's not all jump on him about "progressions are for suckers blah blah". I mean, yeah, progressions really are for suckers :laugh:... But bpastermack is willing to actually engage in intelligent discussion as to why. Don't quash that! It's what this subforum is for!
Yes, but he is trying to reinvent the square wheel. So what is the purpose of this "intelligent discussion"?? He thinks if he jumps off the bridge he can fly. We can't seem to convince him that he will plummet to his death as others before him and I don't think he can convince anyone of his unique aero dynamic skills. There's really nothing left except for him to jump. Good luck and let us know how it works out. :laugh:
 
#12
bpastermack said:
Not sure if you missed the begining of what I said but I tried the real thing first and made 2,400. I would have to play for like a year non stop in a real casino in order to figure out if the system works, because luck one way or the other would have too much effect. online I can play games and 10 times the speed, so I can play for like a month and save myself a lot of time, or if a simulator actually would take all those parameters, then it would really save me some time. Besides, according to what most people here say I'd be a "stupid" man for putting any real money on this system.
Just go for the whole banana. Don't worry it's your money. You will only know if it works on the whole banana if you go full steam ahead in a real world situation.
 

kewljason

Well-Known Member
#13
rrwoods said:
Except for the part where he wants to simulate it first to actually figure out whether it will work.
Whether he sims it or actually plays it out makes no difference to me. Just do it. Then come back and share the results. Just don't keep telling us that the world is flat.
 
#14
kewljason said:
Whether he sims it or actually plays it out makes no difference to me. Just do it. Then come back and share the results. Just don't keep telling us that the world is flat.
I'm still waiting for someone to tell me where something like this can be simmed??
 

rrwoods

Well-Known Member
#16
bpastermack said:
I'm still waiting for someone to tell me where something like this can be simmed??
You'll probably have to write the simulation yourself, as most (all?) existing blackjack simulation programs are designed to simulate counting systems.
 

sagefr0g

Well-Known Member
#17
bpastermack said:
I'm still waiting for someone to tell me where something like this can be simmed??
well, the software sageblackjack (no relation, lol) can do some forms of progression simulation.
i'm not sure if it could handle your scenario.
problem is i don't think it's being sold any more.
maybe on ebay?
 

rrwoods

Well-Known Member
#19
bpastermack said:
Does this guy work for the casinos or something??
Best comment I've ever seen about InPlay. Just ignore the guy.

Speaking of which... is there a "foe" feature on these boards? (Not to hijack the thread or anything...)
 
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