Another long run question

[sagefr0g]

Quote:
Originally Posted by Kasi
I guess you and he mean if he played 50% of the N0 hours at a 300 hour N0 game (150 hours) and 50% of the N0 hours in the 600 hour N0 game (300 hours). Not 50% of my total hours played devoted to playing each game.

.........

Love to hear from you/anyone, the people actually doing this stuff on a regular basis, go about determining N0, if at all, how important they think it is as something to measure results by etc etc.

no, i meant 50% of your total hours played devoted to each game. your overall N0 would be 450. if you split your time equally between these two games in overall hours, you will have some overall expectation (some combination between the two games types), standard deviation (some combination between the two games types), and thus N0. it would take you 450 hours to reach one blended standard deviation in EV. now that i think about it, the blended N0 is not 450 hours because you need to weight EV by 50% each and then VARIANCE by 50% each (and then take the square root of this variance) before calculating the blended N0... but still my overall point still stands - you weight your various game types by % time you play them out of your total playing time, and then you calculate a blended EV, Std Dev, and N0.

as for me and what i use N0 for, i pretty much use it for count system, game and playing style selection. even way before i reach N0 i am constantly comparing my results with EV and do not wait until i reach one std deviation of EV just to say, "Ok, ive now reached the long run and only now is it time to compare my play vs EV".

so Kasi maybe we find out how this sorta thing works. i'm at a loss but see the questions and ideas about it. might be interesting for the BJINFO Team effort with all our method of attack venues and all?

 

[Kasi]

as for me and what i use N0 for, i pretty much use it for count system, game and playing style selection. even way before i reach N0 i am constantly comparing my results with EV ...

Makes sense to me. That's all I meant in the first place lol.

 

[Kasi]

Quote:
Originally Posted by Kasi
I guess you and he mean if he played 50% of the N0 hours at a 300 hour N0 game (150 hours) and 50% of the N0 hours in the 600 hour N0 game (300 hours). Not 50% of my total hours played devoted to playing each game.

.........

Love to hear from you/anyone, the people actually doing this stuff on a regular basis, go about determining N0, if at all, how important they think it is as something to measure results by etc etc.

so Kasi maybe we find out how this sorta thing works. i'm at a loss but see the questions and ideas about it. might be interesting for the BJINFO Team effort with all our method of attack venues and all?

Well to do that blended stuff we'd need a sim for each avenue of attack to be completely accurate. If a guy uses indexes, different EV. Different count, different EV. etc. We're just hoping such things won't make a material difference over lots of hands lol. We only got the one plan lol. That game's N0 is 44,200 hands.

But, like rukus, we'll measure our results alot more frequently than that lol.

 

[QFIT]

Well to do that blended stuff we'd need a sim for each avenue of attack to be completely accurate. If a guy uses indexes, different EV. Different count, different EV. etc. We're just hoping such things won't make a material difference over lots of hands lol. We only got the one plan lol. That game's N0 is 44,200 hands.

But, like rukus, we'll measure our results alot more frequently than that lol.

CVData handles both blending separate games and changing bets and strategies according to current bankroll. N0 is calculated.

 

[Kasi]

CVData handles both blending separate games and changing bets and strategies according to current bankroll. N0 is calculated.

Of course it would. Not that even I thought it would lol.

Don't even have it and I love it.

Would this work for calculating a lifetime N0 - add up the dollar EV per hand and dollar variance of every hand you've ever played and then take the square root of the variance? Now that I think about it I guess it wouldn't be an N0 per se but you'd know at least if your results had reached it or exceeded it?

 

[Stylee]

So it seems every time I post I get closer to explaining what I'm trying to say. I think I got it now. The input has helped so much but I'm still stuck on one thing. The NO will occur at X moment, or after X hands when luck evens out for the style and betting you are playing. As for blending the different NO, after every hand played your bankroll changes depending on whether you win or lose, but the amount of money you have does change(other than pushes, but whatever). Doesn't that mean a new set of variables to be considered into your new goal? If an NO for one game with a bankroll of 5k is 50,000 hands for example and you lose the first hand on a 5 dollar table, isn't the NO for that same game with a bankroll of $4995 different? I may be confused, but I don't see how the long run or NO is a valid milestone or goal lol. It will even out if you play one way for a large number of hands, but thats not really possible is it?

I think thats as best as I can say it

 

[rukus]

So it seems every time I post I get closer to explaining what I'm trying to say. I think I got it now. The input has helped so much but I'm still stuck on one thing. The NO will occur at X moment, or after X hands when luck evens out for the style and betting you are playing. As for blending the different NO, after every hand played your bankroll changes depending on whether you win or lose, but the amount of money you have does change(other than pushes, but whatever). Doesn't that mean a new set of variables to be considered into your new goal? If an NO for one game with a bankroll of 5k is 50,000 hands for example and you lose the first hand on a 5 dollar table, isn't the NO for that same game with a bankroll of $4995 different? I may be confused, but I don't see how the long run or NO is a valid milestone or goal lol. It will even out if you play one way for a large number of hands, but thats not really possible is it?

I think thats as best as I can say it

N0 is completely independent of bankroll. it is solely a function of your game's EV and standard deviation.

 

[Stylee]

am I getting NO, the long run, and ROR horribly confused?

 

[Kasi]

The NO will occur at X moment, or after X hands when luck evens out for the style and betting you are playing. ...If an NO for one game with a bankroll of 5k is 50,000 hands for example and you lose the first hand on a 5 dollar table, isn't the NO for that same game with a bankroll of $4995 different?

Like rukus said it's independent of roll. So like if you have 5K and choose to bet 1 unit at any TC say +2 and +3 and and 2 units at all counts higher than that, N0 would still be the same 50,000 hands. Whether your unit was $1000 or $1. Your ev per hand and stan dev per hand in terms of units remains the same and it doesn't matter if your $5K represents a 5 unit roll or a 5000 unit roll. But obviously your risk of losing $5k is much higher with a 5 unit roll compared to 5000 units lol.

It's just a theoretical number that some people choose to define as "long-run" because your EV = 1 stan dev - in other words it's assumed it's likely your skill is real and the results are much harder to explain by "good luck".

Other people prefer to use a more conservative point when EV has overcome 2 stan deviations as their definition of "long run".

Naturally by then you've also added more units to your roll making it even more unlikely to lose everything from that point forward because it would take a lot more "bad luck" ie a much more rare event to lose it all from that point forward.

Maybe around that point where it gets "pretty likely" you will win money forever.

Just a theoretical point to keep in mind while playing I guess.

ROR sort of depends alot more on units in bankroll - like you'd rather have 5000 than 5 lol.

Basically all this nonsense comes down to EV and stand dev at some point without which you can't calculate any of it. That's what sims are for.

Hope that helps a little.

Keep thinking about it!

 

[Stylee]

Kasi that answers my questions as far as I can tell. Makes a lot of sense put that way. Thanks for the help (but yeah, I still am thinking about it lol)

 

[blackjack avenger]

Welcome To Fantasy NO

Well I guess I just view it as each game has it's own unigue N0. One day you're playing a game with an N0 of 600,000 hands and the next day one with an N0 of 5000 hands. Just seems simpler to keep track of each different game separately.

If you play a game spreading $10-$160 with $10K, the next day play the same game spreading $50-$800 with the same $10K, the next day play either spread, or another, to a $100K roll because you got rich the N0 for that game is the same number of hands in all those cases and hasn't changed at all as long as you bet the same 16 units in the same place.

If you play each weekend at 1000 hands a second with a 10% ROR, you'll lose your original roll 1 weekend in 10. If with a 90% ROR, 9 weekends in 10.

But at least you'll know which has happened in a half-hour lol.

You can keep track of each game separately, can be difficult in the world.

Yes, the NO would remain the same for each game when you play the same but just change units. However, once you start the new style of play with your windfall money you are not starting over you have already spent time playing. The win/loss is booked, the time to long run is booked. However, because you were betting smaller when you first started playing those hands contribute little to your NO or win/loss totals and the weight of those early hands decrease over time.

I did say that you would play the 1000 hands a second correctly; one hand at a time, so it's very very unlikely that you would go broke and highly likely that you would do extremely well. Given this fantasy scenario. I would consider setting my bets to half Kelly and resizing frequently. Let the compounding begin!:whip:

 

[blackjack avenger]

In The World

Quote:
Originally Posted by Kasi
I guess you and he mean if he played 50% of the N0 hours at a 300 hour N0 game (150 hours) and 50% of the N0 hours in the 600 hour N0 game (300 hours). Not 50% of my total hours played devoted to playing each game.

.........

Love to hear from you/anyone, the people actually doing this stuff on a regular basis, go about determining N0, if at all, how important they think it is as something to measure results by etc etc.

so Kasi maybe we find out how this sorta thing works. i'm at a loss but see the questions and ideas about it. might be interesting for the BJINFO Team effort with all our method of attack venues and all?

It's not that hard.
If the ror is low and consistent then they can play a wide variety of games and styles.

2 examples:

A player plays different games but their ror is always half kelly 1.83%

or

If their ror is all over the place, then so can the results.

A player plays different games but their ror is sometimes half kelly 1.83%, sometimes full kelly 13.53% and sometimes double kelly 36%. The players results will cluster around double kelly.

The first style of play is probably preferable.

The best way to play in the world would be to probably have a consistent ror and play the best games you can find. If faced with a variety of games, play them the best you can with a consistent ror.

 

[Kasi]

Yes, the NO would remain the same for each game when you play the same but just change units. However, once you start the new style of play with your windfall money you are not starting over you have already spent time playing. The win/loss is booked, the time to long run is booked. However, because you were betting smaller when you first started playing those hands contribute little to your NO or win/loss totals and the weight of those early hands decrease over time.QUOTE]

Betting smaller might be insignificant to win/loss, especially in dollars, but could carry a heavy weight for a long time as far as N0 is concerned.

Example - I bet $1-$8 expecting to win 0.0029 units per round or 29 cents per 100 hands. My stan dev is 2.848 units per round or $2.848. My N0 is 967,785 hands. I play them. My EV is $2802 and so is 1 stan dev. I've played 1,699,527 units since the EV is 0.165% and the avg bet in units is 1.756.

Then I play a game that's supposed to win 0.033 units per hand. With a stan dev of 1.484 units and an EV of 2.614%. I spread 1-2 with a $400 unit. I/m supposed to make $140 per hundred hands seen. My N0 is 2083 hands for this game with only 1.244 avg bet units. My EV is $27000 and so is 1 stan dev. But my EV is only 2600 units instead of 1.7MM. And 1 sd is only 68 units.

I've never been good with x's and y's kind of stuff, I need to use numbers so it's just an example. Not even sure if it's in any way relevant to your point lol.

In the first game I'm winning 10 times fewer units per hand played with twice the stan dev in units per hand but a win rate in $'s 400 times higher in the second game.

N0 only depends on the win rate per round in units and the stan dev per round in units to get N0 in hands to be played. I think that's the definition of it. (sd per round or hour in units divided by win rate per hand or hour in units and then square that.)

Low ROR's, high ROR's won't change a thing as far as when N0 occurs. ROR only effects your chances of lasting that long.

Hey your cheating on that 1000 hands a second stuff resizing your bet