Hey David,
Dyepaintball12 said:
Hey guys,
I am writing a paper on why Casinos lose more money by anti-counter measures than they would if they didn't use them, and am wondering if anyone has any information that could help me.
I am already using "Advantage Play for the Casino Executive" which helps alot.
Thanks,
David
I'm not skeptical about helping you. My only fear was that you are casino personnel. Now, I think I would want casino personnel to know the following facts. First of all, most bj players (ploppies) don't know BS. Most BS players are not proficient card counters with knowledge of strategy point deviations or an eyeball for deck estimation. Most proficient card counters do not properly size their bets according to their small bankrolls and retain discipline enough to play at an advantage at all times.
Lets call the proficient CC's with proper money management and discipline, "AP's." I'm estimating that only 1-in-1K to 1-in-10K of all bj players are AP's. Furthermore, I'd guess that it's a lot closer to 0.01% in 2008 as opposed to 0.1% in 1978. I'm going to guess that the average ploppy plays against a -1% edge in 2008 as opposed to a -2% in 1978. I'm also going to guess that most AP's are not proficient with a concept called advanced techniques (AT's). Therefore, let us estimate that less than 1% of all AP's are proficient with AT's. Let's say these elite soldiers play with a 5% advantage and normal AP's play with a 1% advantage. Now let's draw a mathematical map of this hypothetical ecology (Also, let's side on conservatism for the sake of the casinos):
100,000 bj players are in a hypothetical set of many casinos. Say all of MGM for one day and they all bet an average of 100 hands of bj.
99,000 are ploppies and bet an average of $25 against a -1% edge for 100 hands. [House Cum. Take (HCT) = $2,475,000.]
500 are perfect BS players but know nothing else, betting $25 against a -0.5% edge for 100 hands. [HCT = $2,481,250.]
400 are proficient CC's with bad money management skills, betting $50 with a +0.25% advantage for 100 hands. [HCT = $2,476,250. (They took MGM for $5K today.)]
99 are proficient CC's with proper money management skills, betting $75 with a +1% advantage for 100 hands. [HCT = $2,468,825. (These soldiers took MGM for $7,425 today.)]
1 CC with proficient AT's, betting $100 with a 5% advantage for 100 hands. [HCT = $2,468,325. (This prodigal took'em for $500 today.)
So, this latter group of 500 proficient CC's cut into the casino's take of close to $2.5M by 0.52%. Now, what if penetration on these games was 5/6 instead of 4.5/6? Well, they would 11% LESS OFTEN! As you can see, the House Take wouldn't change much. They would now be playing 111 hands as opposed to 100 but let's say the Take only increased by 10% because of those darn CC's? [HCT = $2,715,157. (An increase far exceeding the previous take?)]
SO, LESSENING PENETRATION IN A MANUALLY SHUFFLED GAME IS A STUPID IDEA FOR A CASINO CORP. MGM HAS ALREADY IMPLEMENTED THIS STRATEGY.
Well, what if they switch every single game to an ASM? Let's say they can now increase to 110 hands per day (10%). No edge changes except they temporarily eliminated the prodigal who was taking $500 and did not replace him. However, 100 ploppies who were averaging $500 per hand just got up and went to a different casino where they're not hit with a hurricane of cards without end. [The take went down by $49,500 and then up by 10% to $2,674,925.] This is good for the casino, right?
ASM MAKES IT HARDER FOR 0.2% OF ALL CARD COUNTERS AND MOST HIGH ROLLING PLOPPIES WHILE INCREASING OVERALL CASINO TAKE BY ABOUT 10%. HOWEVER, THE MACHINES COST MILLIONS OF DOLLARS, ANNUALIZED. YOU WILL LOSE MOST OF YOUR HIGH ROLLERS. HET HAS ALREADY IMPLEMENTED THIS STRATEGY AND IT WORKED WELL FOR THEM.
Let's look at "NMS". This may have cut 10% of all proficient CC's down to a 0.5% edge as opposed to a 2% edge. So, say 50 of them were averaging $60 per hand with a 2% advantage. That's a difference of $4,500 but now your players are playing about 5% less hands. Say they're now playing 95 hands. Plus, you would double or triple the amount of "trackers" and "sequencers" (those 5% dudes) because it's good for them. So you're really only saving $4,000 but then losing about $120,000.
NMS MAKES IT HARDER FOR ABOUT 10% OF ALL CARD COUNTERS AND A LITTLE BIT (5%) OF ALL YOUR PLAYERS. THIS IS AN EXTREMELY STUPID IDEA FOR A CASINO CORP. TRMP HAS ALREADY IMPLEMENTED THIS STRATEGY.
I could go on and on about every single countermeasure but alas, it's time for a conclusion. If you are thinking that casino corporations are IDIOTS WHEN IT COMES TO RUNNING A GAMBLING HOUSE, YOU ARE CORRECT! What you're not realizing is that they don't want to gamble! THEY WANT EVERYONE TO BE A PLOPPY WITH 1% AGAINST THEM, EVEN IF THIS MEANS THERE WILL ONLY BE 50k OF THEM INSTEAD OF 100k. WITH THE HELP OF SOCIALIST GOVERNMENTS THIS IS ALREADY THE WAY IT IS IN OTHER PARTS OF THE WORLD. THEY DON'T UNDERSTAND WHAT WE DO AND IT SCARES THEM. If the customer base of all casinos goes down by 50% (and it will if the gambling public thinks that any and all games are absolutely "unbeatable"), many corporations will go bankrupt. They're all too scared to switch all games to CSM but they all want to. Why, they fear us and I say, "Boo! This little bother's watching you too."