Any chance for +EV for a 21+3 game?

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embryostud

Member
#1
#1
Per the wizard of odds, the house edge on a 21+3 game is 3.24% with a new 6 deck shoe. I would assume at some point with the count, the EV will turn to the player's advantage and become a profitable endeavor. By my thought process, it should be both positive counts and negative counts where it shifts. I would think the worst case scenario for this side-bet is a count of 0, with a truly balanced shoe, but anywhere other than that and the chances for 3 of a kinds, and straights, begins to creep up. Any thoughts to where the point of playing this is? Many thanks...
 
KenSmith

KenSmith

Administrator
Staff member
#2
#2
Back when this game first appeared I did some analysis. The side bet does become favorable, and sometimes substantially so. However, I decided there wasn't a convenient counting system that would reliably determine when you had an edge.

If you're primarily playing the blackjack game and just looking for extra opportunities to make a side bet, this might be feasible at extreme counts but I don't know for sure.
 
moo321

moo321

Well-Known Member
#5
#5
Hmm. If there was an overbalance of one suit, there'd be more flushes. An overbalance of middle cards (5-10) would give more straights. And a disproportion of any rank of card would tend to give more three of a kinds.

Maybe a team keeping separate counts of some kind? Probably not worth it, though.
 
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embryostud

Member
#7
#7
The way I was thinking about it was flushs should fall with a "normal" distribution... Unless specificaly counting suits- Ughhhh! (no thanks, no more room in my mellon for that too) Therefor not really an exploitable opportunity... However, at a true count of x, be it either negative or positive, the incidence of trips and straights should fall at a greater rate than in a balanced shoe...

Now it may be that count is so extreme it's not mathematically worth even considering, but if you are playing there anyway, then why not consider another opportunity for an advantage. Slante.
 
U

Unshake

Well-Known Member
#8
#8
embryostud said:
The way I was thinking about it was flushs should fall with a "normal" distribution... Unless specificaly counting suits- Ughhhh! (no thanks, no more room in my mellon for that too) Therefor not really an exploitable opportunity... However, at a true count of x, be it either negative or positive, the incidence of trips and straights should fall at a greater rate than in a balanced shoe...

Now it may be that count is so extreme it's not mathematically worth even considering, but if you are playing there anyway, then why not consider another opportunity for an advantage. Slante.
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You may not have to use a suit count in addition to another count to make the side bet beatable. I believe another suit based side bet is beatable to some extent (and sometimes depending on the pay table) by using only a count for suits. Although 21+3 doesn't look it'd be worth it..
 
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