Any successful Progression Players?

Kasi

Well-Known Member
#41
ihate17 said:
Your method will not give you a huge win on a shoe and is measured nearly by just how many hands you won and not how much money you won.ihate17
No big deal but it's based on how often u will win how much betting in a certain way compared to, perhaps flat-betting or card-counting, with a certain bankroll.

Would u double ur bankroll more often in 2 hands card counting or betting a progression?

How do u want to play x hands in a lifetime given a winning goal of y?
 

jack.jackson

Well-Known Member
#42
jack said:
I actually been practicing with a pretty cool progression in a 2 deck. After about thirty hours i am virtually even.

Im actually counting with a pe. of .68 to enhance my play of hands with about 67% pen.

System:
Code:
                  1        Players at table: 7, 6, 5,   4, 3, 2, 1
             -2                             -6 -4,-2,   3, 5, 7, 1
                  3
             -4 
                  5
             -6
                  7
Heres how it works, Once you win a flat bet go to 3units, win again, go to 5, win again go to 7. Win or lose 7. Start over.

If you lose the 3u bet or the 5u bet, resort to the neg. progression.

Play the neg. progression until you win a hand OR lose the -6 unit then start over!

Example: 1u,W, 3u,W, 5u,L 2u,L 4u,W Start trial over.

Small exceptions: If you win double on 3u, but lose 5u, consider it a push and replay 5u,
note: Always resort to neg prog especially if you lose double on 5u.

Resort to neg prog, if you lose double on 7u bet, even if you win the double 5u, bet.

Players at table: The # of players at the table indicate which bets we let carry over at the shuffle.

Example: Theres four people at the table and i won the last hand before the shuffle. My first bet of the top will be three.

Or say theres five people, and i lost my 2u[neg,prog] bet and the dealer shuffles. Start trial over. You would only go to 4u, if their were 6 or 7 players.

Or say their was 2 people and you win the 3u bet, and the dealer shuffles. You would only go to[carry over] the 5u bet, if their were 3 or more players.

Conclusion: Im pretty sure that you need a pe. of .70 or better to make this work. This is what lead me to the AX count. When broken down by 4 its +7 vs -6 : 0 +4+5+6+8+5 000 -6 Which has a pe. .70 and a potential PC. of 1 when using multi-params. Of course, theres easier ways to go about getting a pe. at or over .70

My main reason for this is for cover betting:joker:
Well after a few weeks of learning this new count +1+1+1+2+3+2+2+1-1-3 and using the sam case index genereator for my playing strategy. I now have the highest PE. possible .70 (without multi-params,of course) actually by using exact fractions it is possible to bring your pe slighty higher to .704
Ive decided to put my polaric scheme to the test. Being careful not to make any mistakes. Playing a face up 2D game with decent rules and decent pen. 3PLYRS.(After 2HRS im ahead.)
Obviuosly, further testing is imperative. Every 50 hrs ill post my results!

Note: Exactly how much a facedown game hurts your EV(pe) Im not sure.
I know that if i break even. Then using multi-params would put me ahead. Perhaps Just using MP for the 7's and maybe the A's(separately) Good rules and nice pen are always helpful as well.

Wish me luck:eyepatch: Ill keep ya!>>>>>>>> POSTED
 

jack.jackson

Well-Known Member
#43
2 decks:

Code:
                    1       Players at table: 7, 6 ,5, (4)  3, 2 ,1
                -2                           -6 -4 -2  (3)  5, 7 ,1
                   (3)                 ______________________________
                -4                 *OR possibly?       (1)  3, 5, 7
                   *5???
                -6
                    7
Well,
after much debate and confusion. And even more trial and error. Ive got it narrowed down to two possibilitys. The reason i believe for this! Could quite possibly be, because both ways are correct?
However, if thats true! Would it also be true that one way has to work specifically with the other??? Is it possible that one of the two ways is contingent upon wether the game is dealt face up or not? Having said that. I have it posted to what i believe is to be at least one of the correct ways.

The correct way:
What exactly i mean by the correct way is if i make a flat bet and WIN we go to (3) units. Now, IF we lose our (3) unit bet and ONLY our (3) unit bet do we resort to the negative progression. NOT the 5?? unit bet as previously assumed. But i still consider THIS, as an alternative option. Is this correct? or just a mere option? MY question remains vexed. When i compare it to the difference in the trial or to flat betting.

Players at table:
Thou i have it posted as to what i believe is to be the correct way. The numbers below the line are to be only cosidered as an alternative possibility.
(see players at table: in previous post) even though this option may or may not be right contray to the other option.

Slight change in scheme:
After some hours of playing this pogression i noticed there was a flaw in the betting scheme. Besides the fact, that i would resort to the negative progression when i lost my 5 unit bet.( Now i restart the trial over when i lose the 5 unit bet) Further analysis, has led me to believe that i should only resort to the negative progression ONLY when i lose the (3) unit bet.
It is now contingent upon wether or not i win or lose double my bet.(Splits,DD)
Its easy enough to remember that we ONLY go to the negative progression when we lose the (3) unit bet. Right! But what happens if we were to lose double on the (3) unit progression(or 5and7). Glad you asked, the answer is sound and simple. Restart trial. If you win it, proceed as planned. Thats the good news.
The bad news is what happens after we lose our (3) unit bet and also lose double our bet in the negative progression. You guessed it, you proceed to the next step. (If you was to win double or single bet. Start trial over.)Note: that this is opposite of the positive. The reason for this(though not showed) is in comparison with flat betting.

A few examples:(10$units)X2 means double.

10L,10L,10W,30W,50W,70W or L start trial over.

10W,30W,50X2L,start trial over.( W,proceed to7)

10L,10W,30X2W,50W,70X2,WorL,start trial over.

10W,30X2L,start trial over.

*neg prog.
10W,30L* 20W,start trial over.

10W,30L,20L,40W, STO.

10W,30L,20X2L,40X2W,STO.

10W,30L,20L,40X2L,60WorL,STO.

And of course if was resorting to the negative progression when we lost the 5 unit bet it would be done the same way. But in these examples im not.

In my next post ill display the differences vs flat betting as opposed to vs trial. And will also post my detailed results in 50 hrs of play from now using this detailed method.
_____________________________________________________
A FOGGY DAY IN VIETNAM: Led ZEPPLIN:cool2:
 
#44
Why not just double your bet on winning shoes:

As it has been proven many times in long term play, progressions and regressions based on the last hand do not work and many are very complicated and still produce bad results, and I have tried many so I will outline my strategy once again for those that may have missed it in my last post. Lately I have been playing it on double decks which has a slightly lower house advantage. The ONLY betting strategy that works for me is to simply double your bet while winning on a shoe, either six deck or double deck. Example: Base it on a per shoe basis, when winning on that shoe then double your bet(bet $20) and keep it doubled as long as winning on that shoe returning to your base bet($10) when even or losing on the current shoe. Per session bankroll is 60 times your base bet($600 for typical day session and buyin at $200 per table). Now go out and use this simple but effective strategy and start winning again. I am not bragging just stating my positive results using this strategy in many sessions and many hrs of casino play, and want to give everyone what I believe can produce wins in most sessions and it has produced an overall net win for me which makes BJ fun again....
 
#45
Double bet when ahead

Hi David,

I tried your method of doubling my bet once when up in any shoe.

First I won 20 units, now I am down 60 units and am not sure whether to continue playing. It seems easier to lose 20 units than to make 20 units with this method as the number of losing shoes are greater than the number of winning shoes.

If the cards are 50-50, I slowly lose units because I often lose the first time I double my bet. This takes away the small edge gained of winning more on favorable shoes. In other words, at these moments, I feel the small house edge work against me.
 

Sonny

Well-Known Member
#46
Kenw said:
It seems easier to lose 20 units than to make 20 units with this method as the number of losing shoes are greater than the number of winning shoes...In other words, at these moments, I feel the small house edge work against me.
Unfortunately, the small house edge will be working against you no matter what system you are using. You may be able to win more often than you lose, but you will still lose the same amount of money in the long run. Just use a system that gives you the most enjoyment (and comps) for your money.

-Sonny-
 
#47
The double the bet when ahead on the shoe strategy

Did have a session loss this weekend, although nothing would have worked due to unfavorable tables and card flow and for long stretches would lose most of the hands. No system would have worked. Still winning with this double when ahead per shoe strategy about $500 net in 12 sessions, but the four consecutive losses and quit table strategy using only level bets has done better for comparative sessions so will proceed with that one.
 

jack.jackson

Well-Known Member
#48
jack said:
Code:
                    1       Players at table: 7, 6 ,5, (4)  3, 2 ,1
                -2                           -6 -4 -2  (3)  5, 7 ,1
                   (3)                 ______________________________
                -4                 *OR possibly?       (1)  3, 5, 7
                   *5???
                -6
                    7
Well,
after much debate and confusion. And even more trial and error. Ive got it narrowed down to two possibilitys. The reason i believe for this! Could quite possibly be, because both ways are correct?
However, if thats true! Would it also be true that one way has to work specifically with the other??? Is it possible that one of the two ways is contingent upon wether the game is dealt face up or not? Having said that. I have it posted to what i believe is to be at least one of the correct ways.

The correct way:
What exactly i mean by the correct way is if i make a flat bet and WIN we go to (3) units. Now, IF we lose our (3) unit bet and ONLY our (3) unit bet do we resort to the negative progression. NOT the 5?? unit bet as previously assumed. But i still consider THIS, as an alternative option. Is this correct? or just a mere option? MY question remains vexed. When i compare it to the difference in the trial or to flat betting.

Players at table:
Thou i have it posted as to what i believe is to be the correct way. The numbers below the line are to be only cosidered as an alternative possibility.
(see players at table: in previous post) even though this option may or may not be right contray to the other option.

Slight change in scheme:
After some hours of playing this pogression i noticed there was a flaw in the betting scheme. Besides the fact, that i would resort to the negative progression when i lost my 5 unit bet.( Now i restart the trial over when i lose the 5 unit bet) Further analysis, has led me to believe that i should only resort to the negative progression ONLY when i lose the (3) unit bet.
It is now contingent upon wether or not i win or lose double my bet.(Splits,DD)
Its easy enough to remember that we ONLY go to the negative progression when we lose the (3) unit bet. Right! But what happens if we were to lose double on the (3) unit progression(or 5and7). Glad you asked, the answer is sound and simple. Restart trial. If you win it, proceed as planned. Thats the good news.
The bad news is what happens after we lose our (3) unit bet and also lose double our bet in the negative progression. You guessed it, you proceed to the next step. (If you was to win double or single bet. Start trial over.)Note: that this is opposite of the positive. The reason for this(though not showed) is in comparison with flat betting.

A few examples:(10$units)X2 means double.

10L,10L,10W,30W,50W,70W or L start trial over.

10W,30W,50X2L,start trial over.( W,proceed to7)

10L,10W,30X2W,50W,70X2,WorL,start trial over.

10W,30X2L,start trial over.

*neg prog.
10W,30L* 20W,start trial over.

10W,30L,20L,40W, STO.

10W,30L,20X2L,40X2W,STO.

10W,30L,20L,40X2L,60WorL,STO.

And of course if was resorting to the negative progression when we lost the 5 unit bet it would be done the same way. But in these examples im not.

In my next post ill display the differences vs flat betting as opposed to vs trial. And will also post my detailed results in 50 hrs of play from now using this detailed method.
_____________________________________________________

Unfortunately and once again ive had to scratch every thing and start over. Ive realized that wether the count is pos or neg and if we win or lose a double or split, will in fact, dictate which bets we make. Because negative progressions our based on the players bankroll and positive progressions are based on the casinos bankroll it makes sense the negative progressions are somewhat contingent whether the count is positive or negative and wether we win or lose double or bet. Below is a relevant, but brief display of which bets are contingent of the count (negative or positive) coupled with the contingency of wether we win or lose double our bet. 10$ increments.

Code:
           Remember win you win we go to the 30$ bet. Win proceed to 50$ bet. Lose, resort to negative progression.
  Note: This is not contingent of the count.
                     Trial     vs      Flatbet:        Difference

      WL            -20                 0               -20

     WLL            -40               -10              -30

    WLLL            -80               -20             (-60)*

     *Provided the RC is 0> you procedd to the last of the    negative progression which is 6(60$) Win or lose restart.(Results not shown) Note: if its below 0 you restart. 

    WWL           -10               10               (-20)*

   When you win twice in a row you will now be making the 50$ bet. Win, proceed to last one (70$) * If you lose the 50$ bet, only proceed to negative progression(20$) if the count is 0> Note: if below 0 restart.

   WWLL       -30                 0                -30

 WWLLL        -70               -10              (-60)*

   * The same as above. Only procceed to the last negative progression bet(60$) if the RC is 0> IF NOT, restart.

   I would also like to re-point the fact that if we lose double on our 30$ and 50$ bets. This is a mandatory restart. And remember, you only resort to the negative progression if you lose the 30 and 50 and ONLY the 50$ bet is contingent of the RC 0>

 Below shows the contingency of the RC and wether we win or lose double on the first negative progression bet(20$)  From the top.

    WLLX2      -60            -20            (-40)*
   
  Remember theres only 3 bets in the negative progression  20,40,60. and if you win any bet in the negative progression you restart.* If you lose double on the first negative bet (20) only proceed to the second one(40$) bet, if the RC is 0> IF NOT restart. Important note: If the count justifys a 40$ (RC 0>) Win or lose the 40$ bet, RESTART.(Results not shown) Do not proceed to 60$

 From the top:

       WWLX2        -50            -10             (-40)*
  
     Same as above.

   Note: If you ever lose double on the second progression bet (40$) right! This is also a mandatory re-start. Proceeding to step 3 (60$) is NOT contingent of the count!

                                      1  2  3  4+
       1          Player at table:   (7  6  5  4  3  2  1)
    -2                              (-6 -4 -2  1  3  5  7)
      (3)                                    + 5  6  7  8=36
    -4
      (5)*                  *contingent of RC
    -6
       7
Sorry about the format, i didnt realize it was going to do that. Anyway the count dictates our next bet when we compare it to flat-betting. As long as it doesnt exceed the next bet. But when we compare it to the trial our bets our not contingent of the count. Just when the difference is equal to or less than the next bet in the negative progression. For example, when we make our 3rd positive progressive bet *(50$) and lose were only down -10$ not -20$ like when we lose our 30$ bet and there fore since were down 20 in the trial and the difference in flatbetting we automatically resort to the negative progression(20$) unless we lose double on 30 of course.
But when we lose our 50$ bet your only down -10 but your still down -20 when we compare it to flatbetting. Thats why this bet is contingent of the RC count ( 0> or higher.

I know the scheme is correct. Im still unsure of the 1 of 2 way about which bets we let carry over at the shuffle. Players at table:

Anyway starting from this very minute. Im gonna give it the test. Playing a face-up two-deck game, 3plyrs,DAS, H17, 67% pen, RSA, game. Ill post my results every 24 hrs of play.

PS: Its actually a very simple scheme to use. Its not nearly as hard as it looks.
 

ihate17

Well-Known Member
#49
The semi martingale blues

I am playing a typical rule double deck game with great pen and doing well first heads up and then with one other player at the table. Between us this lady sits down and buys in for $3,000. She bets and loses first $100, then:$200,$400, $800, $1500 and table max $2,000. She keeps taking stacks of hundreds from her purse and now having reached table max she decides to reverse herself, going down to $1500, $1000, and $500 before she places a $200 bet, gets a blackjack and wins her first hand. Now she leaves all $500 out and loses and follows that up with $1000 and $2000 loses before generating a CTR and leaving the table.
Her hands were typical of anyone in a negative variance situation. Every stiff that she hit landed up busting, when she had 18 or 19, the dealer had 20 and when she got dealt a 20 the dealer had a natural.

ihate17
 

GeorgeD

Well-Known Member
#50
Don't be singing the martingale blues ///

ihate17 said:
I am playing a typical rule double deck game with great pen and doing well first heads up and then with one other player at the table. Between us this lady sits down and buys in for $3,000. She bets and loses first $100, then:$200,$400, $800, $1500 and table max $2,000. She keeps taking stacks of hundreds from her purse and now having reached table max she decides to reverse herself, going down to $1500, $1000, and $500 before she places a $200 bet, gets a blackjack and wins her first hand. Now she leaves all $500 out and loses and follows that up with $1000 and $2000 loses before generating a CTR and leaving the table.
Her hands were typical of anyone in a negative variance situation. Every stiff that she hit landed up busting, when she had 18 or 19, the dealer had 20 and when she got dealt a 20 the dealer had a natural.

ihate17


She ain't got a nickle.
And should’ta played this game.
She is outta luck.
Outtaaa luck, playin this game.

She got the Martingale blues, baby,
The Martin, Martin, Martingale blues.
She got those Martin, Martin, Martingale bluuues.



** With apologies to ELIZABETH SHUE & BO DIDDLY
 

Kasi

Well-Known Member
#51
Well, it's late, and I'll no doubt regret it tomorrow, but, sure, I consider myself a successful progression player.

I say that for no other reason than, that there's not much else I can think of, other than the use of various mild progressions from time to time, that explains the fact my actual payback exceeds an assumed flat-bet payback by over 1% in over 200,000 hands using only and nothing-but BS.

Pretty much using only negative progressions of some kind, most of the time using none at all, never really caring if I won "alot" of money. I always hated losing $100 more than I enjoyed winning $1000. Just me I guess lol.

Mostly, I'm just curious, assuming, if one can, that the above is true for just one second, whether one actually believes it or not, although I actually have recorded each hand, otherwise how would I actually know?, whether all the "voo-doo" naysayers out there are in any way the least bit surprised that, by varying one's bets in any way at any time that one wants, one is exceeding a flat-bet payback by that much (it's only a little bit over 1%) over that many hands?

Starting unit bankroll varied by quite a bit in case it matters. Also, it was over many different games with many different rule-sets.

Or, would you say, the results are in line with what you think is a very reasonable and achievable result using progressions and therefore not surprising at all?

Sure, I'll lose money in the long-run, not disputing that, but, if I flat-bet the next 200,000 hands, I'm probably still ahead of EV. And, most likely, the way I figure it anyway, actually still showing a profit.

Anyone out there really care that playing the next 400,000 hands at a profit is "voo-doo" simply because if you played 1,000,000 hands you'll probably (actually, only, might) lose?

Or, put another way, could one of you "voo-doo" naysayers please, just once, say just how many hands you estimate a progression player might last varying one's bet anyway they want with an X-unit bankroll playing what game?

The key here is, and I freely admit it, that I never rigidly adhered to one "system" always betting whatever exactly the same way. I played with a series of finite bankrolls betting how I saw fit to either lose my finite bankroll or win a little.

So, ultimately, perhaps un-simmable but, still, overall, I get the feeling that how long one might last is, generally-speaking, perhaps greatly under-estimated, especially given modest goals.
 
#52
Define

1. How do you define a successful system? How many hours, hands, dollars etc?

2. If you've been testing a system at low dollar bets, when would you have the confidence to test it at a higher level?

I have a successful progressive system, but I'm not experienced enough to know if it's validated.
 

Sonny

Well-Known Member
#53
ScottVegas said:
1. How do you define a successful system?
It is one that gives the player an advantage over the house. It must overcome the house edge and give the player a mathematical edge.

ScottVegas said:
How many hours, hands, dollars etc?
Most computer simulations go for 2 billion hands or more in order to get an accurate estimate of the player’s advantage. You could get away with less but the results would not be as reliable.

ScottVegas said:
2. If you've been testing a system at low dollar bets, when would you have the confidence to test it at a higher level?
Only when the system was mathematically validated. I don’t like to risk my money on a system that I don’t have complete confidence in. I probably wouldn't even use small bets until I knew what to expect.

-Sonny-
 
#54
Sonny said:
It is one that gives the player an advantage over the house. It must overcome the house edge and give the player a mathematical edge.



Most computer simulations go for 2 billion hands or more in order to get an accurate estimate of the player’s advantage. You could get away with less but the results would not be as reliable.



Only when the system was mathematically validated. I don’t like to risk my money on a system that I don’t have complete confidence in. I probably wouldn't even use small bets until I knew what to expect.

-Sonny-

That's a good answer. Thanks.

Does the mathematical validatation take into account (the power of) trends and quitting when on top?
 

aslan

Well-Known Member
#55
Kasi said:
Well, it's late, and I'll no doubt regret it tomorrow, but, sure, I consider myself a successful progression player.

I say that for no other reason than, that there's not much else I can think of, other than the use of various mild progressions from time to time, that explains the fact my actual payback exceeds an assumed flat-bet payback by over 1% in over 200,000 hands using only and nothing-but BS.
We all know that betting progressions are long-term losers. It has nothing to do with luck; it's mathematics. But that doesn't mean that each and every person who uses them will lose.

Is there such a thing as a lucky person? I say, "Yes!" With the billions of people who live on this earth, the odds are that one or a few of them will, just by chance, experience success in all of their major economic decisions, if not their minor ones as well. Therefore, I can easily believe that you are a successful progression player. It has everything to do with mathematics--the mathematics of luck.
 
#56
FUHGEDABOUDIT said:
Does anyone on this site believe they have had success using Positive Progressive Betting?
i dont get why people ask these questions.. fudge, lets say 2 people on here swore by this system and had been using it for months, would you then use it? think about how easy casinos would find out about these systems (60+ years ago).. alls you need to do to beat the casino is keep doubling your bet until you win, or similiar, thats it? casinos would have put a stop to that real quick.. NO MATTER HOW YOU BET, BETTING ALONE IN ANY PATTERN WILL NEVER BEAT THE CASINO, YOU WILL ONLY LOSE MORE MONEY
 

Sonny

Well-Known Member
#57
ScottVegas said:
Does the mathematical validatation take into account (the power of) trends and quitting when on top?
Yes, it takes into account that both will cancel themselves out in the long run. Essentially they have no power at all. Leaving when you are ahead does not protect you from losing it back the next time you play. The winning trends will be canceled out by losing trends, and since you cannot predict them you will play them both equally. The mathematical validation is what exposes these beliefs as myths and shows why any system that uses them will eventually fail. In order to pass a mathematical analysis the system must be effective, not just lucky.

-Sonny-
 
#58
Sonny said:
Yes, it takes into account that both will cancel themselves out in the long run. Essentially they have no power at all. Leaving when you are ahead does not protect you from losing it back the next time you play. The winning trends will be canceled out by losing trends, and since you cannot predict them you will play them both equally. The mathematical validation is what exposes these beliefs as myths and shows why any system that uses them will eventually fail. In order to pass a mathematical analysis the system must be effective, not just lucky.

-Sonny-
A system can only be evaluated mathematically?

Can it be tested at the tables? How much winning would it take for a successful progressive system?
 

Sonny

Well-Known Member
#59
ScottVegas said:
A system can only be evaluated mathematically?
How else could it be done? Even if you keep track of the hands manually, you still have to analyze the results mathematically.

ScottVegas said:
Can it be tested at the tables? How much winning would it take to validate a successful progressive system?
Using a mathematical analysis is the only way to be confident in your answers. It could be tested at the tables but the results may not be very reliable. There’s really no point in analyzing something if the results aren’t accurate. And even then, it could take several lifetimes of play compile sufficient results for an accurate analysis. That is why many people use computer simulations to analyze games. A computer can play billions of hands in an hour while a human can only play about 100-200.

-Sonny-
 
#60
Sonny said:
How else could it be done? Even if you keep track of the hands manually, you still have to analyze the results mathematically.



Using a mathematical analysis is the only way to be confident in your answers. It could be tested at the tables but the results may not be very reliable. There’s really no point in analyzing something if the results aren’t accurate. And even then, it could take several lifetimes of play compile sufficient results for an accurate analysis. That is why many people use computer simulations to analyze games. A computer can play billions of hands in an hour while a human can only play about 100-200.

-Sonny-
How much winning at the tables would a successful system have?
 
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