AP Craps: Measuring Skill

[ChefJJ]

My fellow APs-

My perspective on measuring skill in craps with regard to Advantage Play is apparently a bit different that the accepted norm out there. But I am always looking to learn from others who do their own thing. How do you measure your AP craps skill?


For instance, I look for the proportion of confirmed on-axis rolls to total rolls...with consistency being a must. This is relatively simplistic I've been told, but it allows me to do my thing and accurately calculate my edge over the house if I stick to the core bets applicable to the situation.

Obviously this is a BJ board, but I appreciate the expertise of many members here. :joker:

good luck

 

[callipygian]

How do you measure your AP craps skill?

Well, in the long run, it's just money won. :grin:

I'm not an AP craps player, but I'll confirm mathematically that your approach (tracking on-axis rolls and proving you're non-randomly throwing the dice) is much better than tracking a low-probability throw (e.g. 7 or worse yet 12) and proving you're non-randomly throwing/avoiding 7/12's. You will need fewer trials to prove something which has a 50% chance of happening than to prove something which has a 5% chance of happening.

This whole line of reasoning has multiple applications - gambling, stock market, pharmaceutical clinical trials, etc. Proving or disproving that a 0.0001% chance goes up (or down) is essentially impossible statistically.

 

[ChefJJ]

Well, in the long run, it's just money won. :grin:

Now I can get on board with that!

I always appreicate your point of view.

good luck

 

[SleightOfHand]

Maybe its just me...

but I think that your technique should have been the more standard way (For axis rollers anyway). It seems to be common sense that it doesn't matter what the individual outcomes are as long as you are rolling the dice right.

 

[Brock Windsor]

....I'll confirm mathematically that your approach (tracking on-axis rolls and proving you're non-randomly throwing the dice) is much better than tracking a low-probability throw (e.g. 7 or worse yet 12) and proving you're non-randomly throwing/avoiding 7/12's. You will need fewer trials to prove something which has a 50% chance of happening than to prove something which has a 5% chance of happening.

This whole line of reasoning has multiple applications - gambling, stock market, pharmaceutical clinical trials, etc. Proving or disproving that a 0.0001% chance goes up (or down) is essentially impossible statistically.

An on-axis roll for both die would randomly occur 44.4% of the time correct? My preferred method for tracking dice is to use a hardway set and track the performance of each die while making the delivery as mechanical as I can. Admittedly I have had very little success.
BW

 

[callipygian]

An on-axis roll for both die would randomly occur 44.4% of the time correct?

Yes.

Assuming that you can track each die individually, and be able to tell if you are (for example) throwing the right die correctly but the left die randomly, there is also AP potential there as well, but obviously not as good as if you can control both.

 

[Automatic Monkey]

An on-axis roll for both die would randomly occur 44.4% of the time correct? My preferred method for tracking dice is to use a hardway set and track the performance of each die while making the delivery as mechanical as I can. Admittedly I have had very little success.
BW

The only way I can think of to control dice that makes sense in terms of physics is to put so much spin on them that the angular momentum swamps out any other change in momentum that results when the dice hit the felt. Think of it as a spinning top; no matter how it hits the ground it ends up spinning the same way. But being dice are so symmetrical unlike throwing tops, I don 't know if it will do much good. Dice control may be an interesting idea that doesn't hold up in reality.

 

[standard toaster]

The only way I can think of to control dice that makes sense in terms of physics is to put so much spin on them that the angular momentum swamps out any other change in momentum that results when the dice hit the felt. Think of it as a spinning top; no matter how it hits the ground it ends up spinning the same way. But being dice are so symmetrical unlike throwing tops, I don 't know if it will do much good. Dice control may be an interesting idea that doesn't hold up in reality.

this is something i have expiremented with for a little while. Its pretty simple if you take one die and hold it in a fashion in which it will turn only end over end and flick your wrist creating a fast spin the die will seem to cut off the outside numbers reducing the available numbers from 6 to 4.

I agree with the chef on the way to measure ap skill. I never though the ratio of 7's was a very usefull one and he got me thinking into the on axis throws. This is how I have been evaluating my throws. Another thing that I do in practice is use only the hard way set. This way if you record your results you shoud begin to easily see if you are influencing the dice in a desired way by comparing the ratio of hard sets to soft.

 

[ChefJJ]

this is something i have expiremented with for a little while. Its pretty simple if you take one die and hold it in a fashion in which it will turn only end over end and flick your wrist creating a fast spin the die will seem to cut off the outside numbers reducing the available numbers from 6 to 4.

Doing that with both dice reduces the probabilities from 36 to 16...thus, the basic premise of AP Craps play!

good luck

 

[standard toaster]

Doing that with both dice reduces the probabilities from 36 to 16...thus, the basic premise of AP Craps play!

good luck

I have never attempted this in a casino but do they allow throwing it in this fashion?

 

[bjcounter]

Most casinos will let you set dice. THey won't say much if you hit the back wall. They like a lot of contact, but the smaller, the better, of course. I played (or bet should I say, no AP craps player here) at the Rampart, (way off strip). Saw another guy throw about 9 throws, setting the hard way. He was just left of the stick man and was right handed. I hopped in, with $10 on pass, and $50 on odds when he sevened out. I bet the middle. Started with $200, walked out with over $750. He threw forever. He bounced it once off the felt, then a slight hit on the wall. He controlled the axis spins very well from what I could tell. I bet if they had the fire bet, he would have hit it.

 

[ChefJJ]

I have never attempted this in a casino but do they allow throwing it in this fashion?

Just like bjcounter said, HELL YEAH.

But just like we've learned in implementing blackjack AP techniques, cover play is key. Quick setting, toking, etc. are all important parts of extended AP craps play.

good luck

 

[mk1]

Just like bjcounter said, HELL YEAH.

But just like we've learned in implementing blackjack AP techniques, cover play is key. Quick setting, toking, etc. are all important parts of extended AP craps play.

good luck

yea last night i was doing dice control for the first time did pretty well as for how long i held the dice for. but later towards the evening the pit boss was like "you gotta bet, or else we're gonna pass by you on the dice, you cant only roll".. i understand this but in my mind i was like i dont want to bet on just any ole bozo the clown to win money on. i would wait to bet on consistent shooters and i analyze the table of who's good and whos just throwing the dam thing. cause if i wanted to lose money i'd just play roulette or better yet give the casino everything.
and those players who roll consistent happens to be 2 players in front of me so i just wait.. so chef jj how do you go about in this? what to do in these situations besides just throwing money away?
plus i think what gave me away is that i know i took long setting the dice...( i lost $45 ..i bought in for $60)

 

[ChefJJ]

mk1,

Just like in training yourself to count the cards down quickly, you need to practice setting the dice quickly. A full understanding of the dice themselves can help you be quick...don't give the house another reason to give you a hard time. :flame:

You ask what I do to avoid spending a lot of money on random shooters. Here are my alternatives, listed in order of most desirable:

1. Find an empty or nearly-empty table. It's somewhat hard to do during peak times or when looking for low limits. But this is your best bet to keep the dice in your hands.

2. Leave after you shoot, then come back or hit another table, saddling up close to where the dice will be soon.

3. Take a bathroom break after you shoot...a long one. Ask for the crew to mark your spot. It also helps to take a walk around to break up the monotony of standing.

4. Just make Pass Line bets, with Odds if you like.

good luck

 

[mk1]

mk1,

Just like in training yourself to count the cards down quickly, you need to practice setting the dice quickly. A full understanding of the dice themselves can help you be quick...don't give the house another reason to give you a hard time. :flame:

You ask what I do to avoid spending a lot of money on random shooters. Here are my alternatives, listed in order of most desirable:

1. Find an empty or nearly-empty table. It's somewhat hard to do during peak times or when looking for low limits. But this is your best bet to keep the dice in your hands.

2. Leave after you shoot, then come back or hit another table, saddling up close to where the dice will be soon.

3. Take a bathroom break after you shoot...a long one. Ask for the crew to mark your spot. It also helps to take a walk around to break up the monotony of standing.

4. Just make Pass Line bets, with Odds if you like.

good luck

hey chef jj,
i really appreciate your incite of the game. Although i am relatively new to craps i find it more appealing to BJ.. I mean Bj is still my game and is still my money maker(not at moment since i've been playing craps now that im on spring break)but i find this new experience fun since im finally understanding of how to play it. Yea i admit it was really confusing at first but since my grandfather and i went to vegas i have a better understanding of it. and i know it can be beaten, thats why i want to get dice control down. i enjoy reading your blogs and applied some tactics to my game. look forward to reading more and keep us updated.

ps. with a bouncy table how do you throw the dice? less arc right?

 

[ChefJJ]

ps. with a bouncy table how do you throw the dice? less arc right?

That's what works for me. :joker: In either case (low or high trajectory), less velocity is key.

good luck

 

[ragroller]

chef , are you suppose to throw the dice and make them land closest to the wall?

 

[mk1]

i think it depends on the dealers and boxman, if you can get away without hitting the wall by all means take it. but if you just make the dice tap or "kiss" the wall than that'll be good also, just as long everythings on axis. i believe aiming for a spot 6 inches from the wall is good that way it'll backspin and perhaps tap the wall.

 

[ChefJJ]

ragroller,

I'll preface this opinion like I should with every other one: what I answer with is what is tried and true for myself. There are other opinions out there obviously, but remember that you must find your style...which will probably need to be adapted to the particular table's conditions. OK, enough with that crap... :devil:

If you are asking about where the initial landing should be, always consider the table itself. At my usual tables, which are not springboards by any means, I have two primary landing zones depending on which side I'm throwing from.

Stick Left: far end of the Come box, near the Don't Pass Line. This is actually around 1 foot from the wall or so, which works well with a low-trajectory "runner" if the joint is bouncy.

Stick Right: Don't Come box. To accommodate a different throwing motion, my throw line is angled away from my body. This landing zone is closer than the other, and can accept a higher-arc shot.

Obviously, these are my desired landing areas...in my favorite couple casinos, the table surfaces are moderate and can accept either a low- or high-arc shot. So my preference is usually SR, but I work on both sides in case of alternate conditions or if I am ineffective with one vs. the other that day.

Not meaning to gloat :joker:, but having a full-size table to work on lately has been indispensable. But it is a moderate-bounce table, so I prefer to stay away from those joints that have either old-school deadwood or new, crappy trampoline tables. :flame:

good luck

 

[takinfromindians97]

ap craps

i also go by each dice being on axis and where they end compared to where i set them. I use different color dice so i can track each result from each die. depending on how bad it pitches and how it stays on its axis.