Are AP`s just advanced ploppies?

[plainplayer]

Every member that posts a reply to this thread should ask themselves why they originally started to play this card game.
I do not believe anyone thought it would be a smart "investment", "off the top", so to speak.

I took an interest so that I could consider the math in several serious ways, and thereby decide whether it was possible to make a living with it, if the need should have arisen. Whether that was an intent for "investment," I'm not sure I could say precisely.

 

[UK-21]

Back to the original question . . . along the lines of "are APs really just ploppies under an illusion of superiority over the mass of players" or something to that effect (my words)?

I think it depends. Would a proficient card counter who played a +EV game but poured all of hi/hers winnings back into the slots be considered to be a ploppy/gambler? Provided it was only his/her winnings, it might be a case that s/he's using the casino's money to increase the volume of play in the hope of hitting a jackpot and winning 000,000s. If he/she never uses his/her own money to play-EV games does that make him/her a gambler?

I think the difference between a ploppy and an "ap" (small letters) are the words "knowledge" and "expectation".

To be socialable I throw the odd few quid across a roulette table. I've no doubt when I do this I will lose what I stake, and consider it paid for entertainment. Very occasionally I'm pleasantly surprised when I end up with more than I started with. I know this is an unbeatable -EV game, and my expectation is to lose what I stake.

As to "knowledge" it depends what you do with it. If you've done your homework you should know the numbers, but that doesn't mean your not prepared to carry a high RoR at BJ and bet higher than, say Kelly level, in the expectation of winning big. It doesn't always work out of course, and the basic odds are you'll lose the next hand rather than win it. But if you know this, it becomes a matter of choice rather than chance. If you know the risks and are still prepared to over-bet your life savings, then you've got a problem - you're not a ploppy per se, but a problem player (I won't say gambler as I assumed the person would know the risks, and some would argue if you know and understand the risks then it's not gambling).

Does this all make sense?

 

[Machinist]

I resent that

Gambling is betting money on an unknown outcome. Anyone who doesn't like that definition can take it up with Webster. APs gamble, make no mistake about it. There is no guarantee of a positive result.

statement! I don't gamble. In fact i cant remember the last time i lost any money back to a casino. I have been playing on their money for the last 16 years. They have made me a nice living.
Here's how i figure it .. If you can walk into a casino and find nothing of + EV to play and then walk out without betting a dime, then you dont have a problem. I walk into plenty of stores and walk right out after an hour of looking around. There is no thrill in casinos, its a living ,, its a job...I know the numbers, i know my expectations for a given AP play.
NOW!!!! lets say i find a PLAY from heaven!!!!!!!!!! Yes my heartbeats a little faster!!!
And i do enjoy giving a store a good screwing. Day after day!!! But as soon as that play is gone, i move on till another is found.
I think alot of BJ APs do gamble a smidge here and there, and a 1,2,3,4% edge is pretty small.....the risk is definitely there compared to a much larger edge in the high double digits or more. So do BJ APs gamble on the game???? There is risk...but to call it gambling ??? I dont think so if you compare it to your typical ploppy play...

Machinist

 

[plainplayer]

Gambling is betting money on an unknown outcome. Anyone who doesn't like that definition can take it up with Webster.

I did, and the only technical quibble I'd offer is that http://www.merriam-webster.com/ says "uncertain" outcome, not "unknown." It's uncertain only insofar as I don't know exactly how big the almost always entirely positive outcome will be.

That said, I don't regard what I do in BJ as gambling in any sense other than a very technical one. The movie "21" is a dreadful place for philosophy, but I do like the Spacey line, "This isn't gambling. It's money management." Last evening, I turned 1 pile of $300 into 2-plus piles of $300 in barely an hour. I would have been alarmed if I'd done worse. I knew what I was doing and I got the result I expected. That's just money management, exercising an understanding of the problem set before me, taken to its predictable end.

 

[sabre]

Last evening, I turned 1 pile of $300 into 2-plus piles of $300 in barely an hour. I would have been alarmed if I'd done worse.

Well, you're quite clearly hole-carding with 100% accuracy at a minimum, and more likely doing things even more advanced (or illegal) giving you edges well into the 25+% range. For us lowly recreational counters playing with a 2% or so edge, you'll have to understand despite having a positive expectation, we are susceptible to a lot of volatility in our results and are at the mercy of variance and luck. I suppose I'd be fine with not calling what you're doing gambling, since your edge is so high and variance is so low that you're guaranteed a positive outcome each night. But it's just disingenuous to believe that straight counting isn't gambling.

 

[plainplayer]

*sigh*

I should have known better than to say that, in that way, in the public forums.

All right...

First thing, spare me (and all of us) the casting of aspersions about doing anything illegal. I play a totally, completely, and utterly straight game.

Second thing... I will almost certainly regret this, and you can all damn me to hell if you must but: I don't count. I don't have to.

 

[Blue Efficacy]

However you get your edge, it's still gambling. It's not as big a gamble if you hole card or whatever you do to get your advantage, but gambling nonetheless!

 

[Machinist]

Sir you are wrong

However you get your edge, it's still gambling. It's not as big a gamble if you hole card or whatever you do to get your advantage, but gambling nonetheless!

Ask any casino..look at any bill board..and it is called GAMING :laugh::laugh:
I do not gamble i game???? gameble....gamer... gamist...?????

Machinist

 

[sabre]

Second thing... I will almost certainly regret this, and you can all damn me to hell if you must but: I don't count. I don't have to.

Sorry for the insinuation, but there really aren't a lot of situations/AP techniques that give you such high edges that failing to win several hundred in a short amount of time would be "alarming". Even ace tracking with 100% accuracy doesn't fall into that category. Congratulations on finding one, and I hope you milk it as long as possible.

 

[plainplayer]

Sorry for the insinuation

No apology was needed, but thank you anyway. I fumbled over a comment that was intended just to contrast gambling and money management, and it was my own damn fault.

 

[blackchipjim]

Ap vs Ploppy

I'd like to clear up a common misconception with this example. Two players wanting to play bj walk into the casino. One looks around and notes the playablility of the games all things considered and one doesn't. One player sizes up either to play or leave based on know factors the other sits down at the first table that suits his fancy. One player sees no opportunites to exploit the other doesn't know or care he's there to gamble.To anyone who is thinking of becoming an AP good for you. It's not hard to be one but, to be a good one is another matter that takes time and practice. No AP is a advanced ploppy they are just at a level of competence that they are at. A true AP is constantly striving to learn and become more competent in his quest to have a better edge over the casino. Any competent AP will tell you that it's a ongoing learning process and he is always open to new theories and ideas.

 

[tezzadiver]

Hi All,
What started off as a joke thread actually pulled off some very interesting replies.

A big thank you to all for your replies as it was very interesting to see how AP`s in general feel about the gambling aspect.

Don`t be to pissed with me............... English humour and all:laugh:

 

[Count Backula]

advantages

This point may be trivial, but I just wanted to throw it out there that a 4-5% advantage does not really exist in blackjack by card counting. Let's say you play the excellent Bellagio double deck, using a level-two system with full indices, and a 100:1 spread (SCORE = ~160, according to CVCX). That will still give you only a 3.1% advantage. And that's about as good as it gets.

If you play a good rules SD game like at Barona (rule of 5), it's also a 3.1% IBA. If you could somehow convince them to give you something silly like rule of 8, then yes, your edge is now 7.0%.

If you play a strip rules 6 deck game with (yikes) half a deck cut off, your edge is now 3.4%.

So as you can see, even edges in the 3% range is only possible with a combination of good rules, unbelieveable pen, and ridiculous spreads. And since you can't really maintain that win rate for long, it's really only a theoretical discussion.

So yeah, advantages in the 2 to 3% range is possible for straight counting, for short periods of time. But 4-5%, no.

 

[Jack_Black]

This point may be trivial, but I just wanted to throw it out there that a 4-5% advantage does not really exist in blackjack

I assumed he meant HCing which would give you about 12% edge, but only when you can find it, and even then it is not every hand played. estimating that maybe 1% of your total playtime would have this 12%, thus knocking down your total average to 4-5%.

 

[tezzadiver]

This point may be trivial, but I just wanted to throw it out there that a 4-5% advantage does not really exist in blackjack by card counting. Let's say you play the excellent Bellagio double deck, using a level-two system with full indices, and a 100:1 spread (SCORE = ~160, according to CVCX). That will still give you only a 3.1% advantage. And that's about as good as it gets.

If you play a good rules SD game like at Barona (rule of 5), it's also a 3.1% IBA. If you could somehow convince them to give you something silly like rule of 8, then yes, your edge is now 7.0%.

If you play a strip rules 6 deck game with (yikes) half a deck cut off, your edge is now 3.4%.

So as you can see, even edges in the 3% range is only possible with a combination of good rules, unbelieveable pen, and ridiculous spreads. And since you can't really maintain that win rate for long, it's really only a theoretical discussion.

So yeah, advantages in the 2 to 3% range is possible for straight counting, for short periods of time. But 4-5%, no.

In the high-lo system for every TC Plus one we get an average extra advantage of 0.5%. Correct me if I`m wrong but a true count of plus 10 should give us an advantage of 4.5 %. Assuming we start at disadvantage of -0.5%.

Obviously these counts are quite rare.

 

[tezzadiver]

In the high-lo system for every TC Plus one we get an average extra advantage of 0.5%. Correct me if I`m wrong but a true count of plus 10 should give us an advantage of 4.5 %. Assuming we start at disadvantage of -0.5%.

Obviously these counts are quite rare.

Or am I missing something?

 

[Automatic Monkey]

In the high-lo system for every TC Plus one we get an average extra advantage of 0.5%. Correct me if I`m wrong but a true count of plus 10 should give us an advantage of 4.5 %. Assuming we start at disadvantage of -0.5%.

Obviously these counts are quite rare.

Well yeah, I suppose you can backcount any game and play with an advantage as high as you want depending on your entry point. Not very effective though, especially given that tables with max bets high enough to justify playing only a couple of hands a session tend to be NMS.

 

[Sucker]

After four pages of anecdotes & opinions, no one has really satisfactorily answered the OP's original question: "Are AP`s just advanced ploppies?".
AP is an acronym that stands for "advantage player". So I would think that the definition of AP is quite OBVIOUS.The definition of "ploppie" is someone who is NOT an advantage player.

It appears to ME that; according to these two definitions, there are only two possibilities: Either you are an AP, or you're a ploppie.

Oh wait - There is a THIRD possibility: You don't gamble at ALL.

 

[UK-21]

In the high-lo system for every TC Plus one we get an average extra advantage of 0.5%. Correct me if I`m wrong but a true count of plus 10 should give us an advantage of 4.5 %. Assuming we start at disadvantage of -0.5%.

Obviously these counts are quite rare.

I don't think it's a straight line effect, more of an S-curve effect (or so I'm told) - the higher or lower the count, the less the difference in %advantage/disadvantage between points. Read this somewhere but can't remember where. Something to do with the possibilities of the dealer gaining the advantage of the additional high cards as well.

Even at an extreme high-count, where all of the remaining cards are tens, although the advantage would appear to be huge, in fact there isn't one - as both the dealer and the player are guaranteed to pull 20s, thereby pushing.

 

[assume_R]

I don't think it's a straight line effect, more of an S-curve effect (or so I'm told) - the higher or lower the count, the less the difference in %advantage/disadvantage between points. Read this somewhere but can't remember where. Something to do with the possibilities of the dealer gaining the advantage of the additional high cards as well.

Even at an extreme high-count, where all of the remaining cards are tens, although the advantage would appear to be huge, in fact there isn't one - as both the dealer and the player are guaranteed to pull 20s, thereby pushing.

http://www.blackjackincolor.com/truecount2.htm