Back-counting (Wonging) doesn't work.

[Automatic Monkey]

...Anyone have creative ideas or things they've tried to backcount successfully (ie, pretending to be on the cell phone, checking out the craps table while simultaneously backcounting)?

Best way- just bring a girl, and stand there making out while backcounting. Every once in a while you try to show off, by showing her what a high roller you are.

It works best if you actually pick up a girl in the casino for this technique. But we are card counters, so that might be the hardest part.

 

[shiznites]

Best way- just bring a girl, and stand there making out while backcounting. Every once in a while you try to show off, by showing her what a high roller you are.

It works best if you actually pick up a girl in the casino for this technique. But we are card counters, so that might be the hardest part.

Indeed I like where your head is at and could see this working out extremely well! Unfortunately thats a bit difficult, I would assume for most of us..

For now, I guess I'll just walk around on my cell phone.

 

[daddybo]

Indeed I like where your head is at and could see this working out extremely well! Unfortunately thats a bit difficult, I would assume for most of us..

For now, I guess I'll just walk around on my cell phone.

Hint young Lad..Girls like money. :whip: (how else do you think a hairy Monkey gets 'em) :laugh:

 

[Automatic Monkey]

Assuming you ALWAYS see that scenario which is comparable to the situation where the casino was using a modified shoe and removed 6 low cards AND you were aware of that gift.

The SCORE goes up to 17, still a very bad game. Cutting out an extra deck for is really mortal for a counter.

Whoa wait, a couple of things you're neglecting. One is you are talking about a game with very marginal rules, and having a High-Low TC of +1 doesn't quite overcome the house edge. With the S17, LS games I'm accustomed to, a TC of +1 is not something you ever walk away from. Game rules do affect entry and departure points.

The problem you have is that even though the TC is +1, you only have 2.5 decks left in which to do your damage with 1 deck less pen due to the late entry. Now let's suppose you were backcounting a 6/1.5 game with sufficient rules to allow you to enter profitably at TC= +1, and you got that count after 2 decks. Again, you have only 2.5 decks left to play. Would you walk away, or play?

 

[callipygian]

Sometimes I wish that backcounting were less popular so that people who do it wrong don't screw it up for people who do it right.

 

[misterx]

A solution could be to work in couple. A person backcount. If negative go away, if positive he seats at the table and make only a bet. Example if the count is +5 he bets $50, so the second person knows the count is 5 and enters inside while the first person go away. The two persons never speak eachother and are never at the same table.
Dangerous? Could it work?

 

[10JQKA]

Maybe it's not so bad, sometimes you can be walking by a table with a deck or so dealt out and you see a crateload of low cards down there. Why not play?

Because the hand before the count was most likely -15 and thats why there are a crateload of low cards down.

Mathmatically speaking if a lot of low cards are out it means the count is heading back to the mean, aka 0. Most likely meaning the count is negative.

 

[Blue Efficacy]

Because the hand before the count was most likely -15 and thats why there are a crateload of low cards down.

Mathmatically speaking if a lot of low cards are out it means the count is heading back to the mean, aka 0. Most likely meaning the count is negative.

So you're saying you'd rather jump in after you see the table littered in paint?

 

[QFIT]

Because the hand before the count was most likely -15 and thats why there are a crateload of low cards down.

Mathmatically speaking if a lot of low cards are out it means the count is heading back to the mean, aka 0. Most likely meaning the count is negative.

Umm, according to that logic, two hands before must have been +15.

 

[10JQKA]

Is the glass half full or half empty?

Do you assume the count is low because there are a lot of low cards coming out or do you assume the count must be just going high because a lot are out now.

In my eyes, this is a gamble, in a 6D shoe, with 1D gone and and 1.5D off the end you are playing 60% pen.

 

[21forme]

You don't assume anything. You use only the info you see. Anything before you walked to the table is the same as what's behind the cut card.

 

[Automatic Monkey]

Is the glass half full or half empty?

Do you assume the count is low because there are a lot of low cards coming out or do you assume the count must be just going high because a lot are out now.

In my eyes, this is a gamble, in a 6D shoe, with 1D gone and and 1.5D off the end you are playing 60% pen.

If you are convinced of that, you shouldn't play at all. How do you know the high cards aren't all behind the cut card? They're just as likely to be behind the cut card as on the next hand.

When you see cards dealt out, high or low, they are gone and that's all you need to know. Look up something called the True Count Theorem- it shows that the true count of a shoe tends to stay exactly where it is, while the running count changes. It's true the pen is decreased but when your advantage is already there you've got to play it. Otherwise you are walking away from a +EV situation into the -EV situation of a new shoe.

 

[monkeyraptor]

Another way to think about could be that the reason you don't want to play with 40% pen is that you're really unlikely to see any good situations. However, if you see a whole bunch of low cards come off then you know this is one of those rare times when it is good.

 

[Kenneth]

pen

It would be beneficial to consider what penetration really means.

 

[moo321]

Because the hand before the count was most likely -15 and thats why there are a crateload of low cards down.

Mathmatically speaking if a lot of low cards are out it means the count is heading back to the mean, aka 0. Most likely meaning the count is negative.

Not really true. The true count has no tendency to revert to zero, just the running count.

 

[10JQKA]

Not really true. The true count has no tendency to revert to zero, just the running count.

I may be being a little dense here and please correct me if I am wrong but surely if the running count has a tendency to revert to 0 then so does the true?



Also I very much see the point of taking what you can see at the table making this a good situation to sit down and play with the analagy of the cards behind the cut card.

 

[UK-21]

The TC is not a count is it? It's a product calculated from the RC, used simply to determine the increased number of high/low cards left in the shoe, averaged per deck. From that info we make assumptions and bet accordingly.
The cut card in the shoe will mean that it's rarely going to be the case that the RC is zero when it pops out as it's rare that all of the additional high/low cards have been distributed in front of the cut card and played out.

If when the cut card comes out the RC is still high (I've personally seen it at +10), then it means you've been assuming an advantage, and betting on this assumption, when in actual fact it was never there - the additional high cards would never have come into play.

What was the original point of discussion?

 

[QFIT]

I may be being a little dense here and please correct me if I am wrong but surely if the running count has a tendency to revert to 0 then so does the true?

TC is calculated as RC over decks remaining. If you have a count of +10, as you continue deeper, both the magnitude of the numerator and denominator will decrease. As a result, the TC will have a tendency to stay the same, not revert to zero. This makes sense as the TC indicates the richness of the remaining cards and there is no reason to believe the richness will decrease. On average, the excess tens will be evenly distributed.

 

[QFIT]

If when the cut card comes out the RC is still high (I've personally seen it at +10), then it means you've been assuming an advantage, and betting on this assumption, when in actual fact it was never there - the additional high cards would never have come into play.

Given known info, the advantage was there. That does not mean that the cards are all aligned favorably on either side of the cut card. The count could be low and the next hand a BJ. You still have a disadvantage based on known info.

 

[UK-21]

If when the cut card comes out the RC is still high (I've personally seen it at +10), then it means you've been assuming an advantage, and betting on this assumption, when in actual fact it was never there - the additional high cards would never have come into play.

Fair point. Read "may never have been there". Depends on the distribution of the remaining deck of course, and it's probable there'll be slugs of advantageous and disadvantages combinations of cards played out before the cut card shows.