Backed Off In Vegas.. How Much can I spread?

[White Guy]

I haven't been on this forum for a while due to lack of play, due to lack of time to play. I have a question for all the regular Vegas players out there though.

Last trip to Vegas I was backed off at a crappy off strip Casino with a mediocre game I was just playing to pass time while waiting for someone nonetheless. This winter and fall I am going to get caught up on all my work and want to put in a lot more time in Vegas. I will be there at least 40-50 days between Sep-Dec.

For longevity, in your experiences, how much money can I play with regularity without getting backed off? I know of a lot of 50-100 min games I would love to play a lot of but can I actually Spread 1-8 on DD or 1-12 on 6D without getting the heave ho really quick? Ideally I would like to get in at least 20 hrs in a weeks time with Min bets of 100-200. I don't want to get my face plastered all over town though. I am sure you regulars know which games I am refering too.

Thanks

 

[BJgenius007]

I haven't been on this forum for a while due to lack of play, due to lack of time to play. I have a question for all the regular Vegas players out there though.

Last trip to Vegas I was backed off at a crappy off strip Casino with a mediocre game I was just playing to pass time while waiting for someone nonetheless. This winter and fall I am going to get caught up on all my work and want to put in a lot more time in Vegas. I will be there at least 40-50 days between Sep-Dec.

For longevity, in your experiences, how much money can I play with regularity without getting backed off? I know of a lot of 50-100 min games I would love to play a lot of but can I actually Spread 1-8 on DD or 1-12 on 6D without getting the heave ho really quick? Ideally I would like to get in at least 20 hrs in a weeks time with Min bets of 100-200. I don't want to get my face plastered all over town though. I am sure you regulars know which games I am refering too.

Thanks

It really depend on the size of the casino. In Strip casinos, no one care if you spread $25 to $400 on the shoe game. But in off-strip casinos, money is much tighter. They could back you off if you spread $10 to $160.

 

[mjbballar23]

It really depend on the size of the casino. In Strip casinos, no one care if you spread $25 to $400 on the shoe game. But in off-strip casinos, money is much tighter. They could back you off if you spread $10 to $160.

10 to 160 is aggressive for a lot of off strip places

 

[kewljason]

I haven't been on this forum for a while due to lack of play, due to lack of time to play. I have a question for all the regular Vegas players out there though.

Last trip to Vegas I was backed off at a crappy off strip Casino with a mediocre game I was just playing to pass time while waiting for someone nonetheless. This winter and fall I am going to get caught up on all my work and want to put in a lot more time in Vegas. I will be there at least 40-50 days between Sep-Dec.

For longevity, in your experiences, how much money can I play with regularity without getting backed off? I know of a lot of 50-100 min games I would love to play a lot of but can I actually Spread 1-8 on DD or 1-12 on 6D without getting the heave ho really quick? Ideally I would like to get in at least 20 hrs in a weeks time with Min bets of 100-200. I don't want to get my face plastered all over town though. I am sure you regulars know which games I am refering too.

Thanks

I am confused about the "off-strip" reference. Are you looking to spread $100-$800 or $200-$1600 on DD and $100-$1200 or $200-$2400 on 6 deck games playing off-strip?? You are not going to be able to play those kind of limits off-strip for long. I play below your level (top bets mid black), but based on my experiences, you aren't going to be able to spread $200-$1600 on DD anywhere, for long. DD are pretty protected. With those kind of limits, you will need to stick to the bigger houses and will have to move around alot, and I still don't think you are going to get in 20 hours a week for 4 months.

 

[jnrwilliam]

I am confused about the "off-strip" reference. Are you looking to spread $100-$800 or $200-$1600 on DD and $100-$1200 or $200-$2400 on 6 deck games playing off-strip?? You are not going to be able to play those kind of limits off-strip for long. I play below your level (top bets mid black), but based on my experiences, you aren't going to be able to spread $200-$1600 on DD anywhere, for long. DD are pretty protected. With those kind of limits, you will need to stick to the bigger houses and will have to move around alot, and I still don't think you are going to get in 20 hours a week for 4 months.

How about spread $50-400/ DD at Vegas or outside Vegas ?

 

[kewljason]

How about spread $50-400/ DD at Vegas or outside Vegas ?

I can't make blanket statements about what is or isn't tolerated, as tolerance levels vary by individual stores, but yes you can find places where you can play that spread for reasonably short periods of time. (in my experience)

 

[Zerg]

I haven't been on this forum for a while due to lack of play, due to lack of time to play. I have a question for all the regular Vegas players out there though.

Last trip to Vegas I was backed off at a crappy off strip Casino with a mediocre game I was just playing to pass time while waiting for someone nonetheless. This winter and fall I am going to get caught up on all my work and want to put in a lot more time in Vegas. I will be there at least 40-50 days between Sep-Dec.

For longevity, in your experiences, how much money can I play with regularity without getting backed off? I know of a lot of 50-100 min games I would love to play a lot of but can I actually Spread 1-8 on DD or 1-12 on 6D without getting the heave ho really quick? Ideally I would like to get in at least 20 hrs in a weeks time with Min bets of 100-200. I don't want to get my face plastered all over town though. I am sure you regulars know which games I am refering too.

Thanks

I have been spending lots of time in Vegas recently playing some blackjack at about 75% of your betting level. Can't really speak on HL rooms here. I stick to the main floor on bigger casinos. If you are going to be playing 20 hours a week I would suggest you play some on the main floor too. 20 hours in HL rooms seems like a lot.

*Note that I this advice is may be slightly conservative. I have had zero back-offs and not much heat, so I am probably not playing as long as I could.

Some main floor thoughts:

Start small. Id say buy in for $500 and bet $25 even if you intend to place $1000 bets. Staff would be somewhat interested in you if you start at $100, not that interested at $25.

If your top bet is $500 or more, you are probably better off playing 2 hands all the time and dropping you top bet accordingly.

If your top bet is $500 or more, play a more "dynamic" bet ramp based on how much of the shoe is left. For instance if your top bet is $1000, it is TC 3, and there are just a few hands left consider betting $300 instead of $600. If you do this you can probably drop back down to $25 and stay for another shoe. If you go $600 Id take off when the shoe ends.

Short sessions, on to the next place after you get your big bets out is best. At least take a short break and switch tables.

Be real careful with double deck. Short sessions for sure. Here you should cut your spread down.

The floor person is your main concern. IMO on the main floor, you don't really need to worry about surveillance in shoe games (as long as your play short sessions and leave after big action.)

Wong a lot. If there are freshly shuffled games waiting for you, why ever play TC -1? By continuing to sit there over a freshly shuffled game, you are picking a game with worse pen and the equivalent of an extra .5 HE.

Play only good conditions and not just rules/pen. Play heads up if possible. Before sitting down, evaluate the chance of someone joining your game (crowded = higher chance.) If it is crowded, but there is one open $25 table and one $50 table, consider the $50 table. It really sucks/hurts win rate to get a good deck and have someone jump in. If the deck gets real good early consider asking the floor for a higher table min.

-Zerg

 

[kewljason]

I have been spending lots of time in Vegas recently playing some blackjack at about 75% of your betting level. Can't really speak on HL rooms here. I stick to the main floor on bigger casinos. If you are going to be playing 20 hours a week I would suggest you play some on the main floor too. 20 hours in HL rooms seems like a lot.

*Note that I this advice is may be slightly conservative. I have had zero back-offs and not much heat, so I am probably not playing as long as I could.

Some main floor thoughts:

Start small. Id say buy in for $500 and bet $25 even if you intend to place $1000 bets. Staff would be somewhat interested in you if you start at $100, not that interested at $25.

If your top bet is $500 or more, you are probably better off playing 2 hands all the time and dropping you top bet accordingly.

If your top bet is $500 or more, play a more "dynamic" bet ramp based on how much of the shoe is left. For instance if your top bet is $1000, it is TC 3, and there are just a few hands left consider betting $300 instead of $600. If you do this you can probably drop back down to $25 and stay for another shoe. If you go $600 Id take off when the shoe ends.

Short sessions, on to the next place after you get your big bets out is best. At least take a short break and switch tables.

Be real careful with double deck. Short sessions for sure. Here you should cut your spread down.

The floor person is your main concern. IMO on the main floor, you don't really need to worry about surveillance in shoe games (as long as your play short sessions and leave after big action.)

Wong a lot. If there are freshly shuffled games waiting for you, why ever play TC -1? By continuing to sit there over a freshly shuffled game, you are picking a game with worse pen and the equivalent of an extra .5 HE.

Play only good conditions and not just rules/pen. Play heads up if possible. Before sitting down, evaluate the chance of someone joining your game (crowded = higher chance.) If it is crowded, but there is one open $25 table and one $50 table, consider the $50 table. It really sucks/hurts win rate to get a good deck and have someone jump in. If the deck gets real good early consider asking the floor for a higher table min.

-Zerg

This is some good advice. Seems Zerg has a good grip on Vegas games. Especially the double deck advice. Double deck is a counter trap here in Vegas. Not all of course, but many are. In general terms they are watched very closely. Short sessions are a must.

Just a couple things I disagree with just a bit. One is spreading to 2 hands with bets of $500 or more. Spreading to 2 hands draws mega attention in my experience. However, I have also been spreading to 2 hands more often than I used to. But I just want to add that if you do spread to 2 hands, you really should consider exiting at the conclution of that shoe no matter what.

The second issue I disagree with a bit is "you don't need to worry about surveillance in shoe games". Some places yes. But some place no. and some places like Aria, you ONLY need to worry about surveilance. The heat comes from above, not from the floor.

Good post Zerg. Thanx for sharing your thoughts and good advice.

 

[aslan]

This is some good advice. Seems Zerg has a good grip on Vegas games. Especially the double deck advice. Double deck is a counter trap here in Vegas. Not all of course, but many are. In general terms they are watched very closely. Short sessions are a must.

Just a couple things I disagree with just a bit. One is spreading to 2 hands with bets of $500 or more. Spreading to 2 hands draws mega attention in my experience. However, I have also been spreading to 2 hands more often than I used to. But I just want to add that if you do spread to 2 hands, you really should consider exiting at the conclution of that shoe no matter what.

The second issue I disagree with a bit is "you don't need to worry about surveillance in shoe games". Some places yes. But some place no. and some places like Aria, you ONLY need to worry about surveilance. The heat comes from above, not from the floor.

Good post Zerg. Thanx for sharing your thoughts and good advice.

You can always play two hands without raising the heat level. And if you do play two hands at $500 each in a plus count, it really depends on the quality of the surveillance whether you can return, or how long before you can return. Some houses will be more likely to review your max bet shoe, while others will let you slip away without a review or note. In any case, you must leave immediately after such a shoe, unless you're one of those who likes to play until he gets the tap.

I recently played two hands at $300 each in a Delaware casino and at the end of the shoe I quit. However, my milk had not arrived. I sat through a shoe, still no milk, so I decided to play the next shoe. It was not a smart move. I had the distinct impression I had been made by something the dealer said, but will not know until the next time I return. In this case it was doubly stupid because I was playing rated. Becoming overconfident is a big problem. Thank God there are so many casinos around, so one mistake is not always that big a deal. It wasn't a Vegas casino, but the same principle would apply. Also, I seldom play rated in Vegas anymore.

 

[kewljason]

You can always play two hands without raising the heat level.

My bad. I thought Zerg was talking about spreading to 2 hands. His post clearly says playing 2 hands all the time. I should have re-read it. Personally, I don't care for always playing 2 hands. It esentially is a reduction in spread. I view it similarly to how I view cover. With an already very slim margin, I just don't like to give up any of that margin.

 

[aslan]

My bad. I thought Zerg was talking about spreading to 2 hands. His post clearly says playing 2 hands all the time. I should have re-read it. Personally, I don't care for always playing 2 hands. It esentially is a reduction in spread. I view it similarly to how I view cover. With an already very slim margin, I just don't like to give up any of that margin.

It's only a reduction in spread if you reduce each hand by 75%, not if you play both at 100% your max bet. Playing two hands at min bet is equivalent to a min bet of two units playing only one hand but with a reduction in variance. Please correct me if you think I'm wrong.

 

[Friendo]

Personally, I don't care for always playing 2 hands. It esentially is a reduction in spread.

I assume you're talking about the effect of the $25 table mininum, yes?

How depressing that this particular annoyance - the lack of tables allowing your bottom bet with two hands - does not disappear once you move up to green-chip play.

In a pair of sims I just looked at, the 2-handed version at the higher minimum - but same maximum - bet beat the 1-handed version by about 10% in SCORE, and quite a bit in win rate ( > double). This is essentially the difference between X to 16X with one hand and 2X to 2*8X with two.

Both sims assumed Wong-out at just below -1.

The downside is obviously the higher Kelly fraction of the two-handed version: it is roughly double, which is no small increase when you're talking about Kelly proportions!

 

[aslan]

I assume you're talking about the effect of the $25 table mininum, yes?

How depressing that this particular annoyance - the lack of tables allowing your bottom bet with two hands - does not disappear once you move up to green-chip play.

In a pair of sims I just looked at, the 2-handed version at the higher minimum - but same maximum - bet beat the 1-handed version by about 10% in SCORE, and quite a bit in win rate ( > double). This is essentially the difference between X to 16X with one hand and 2X to 2*8X with two.

Both sims assumed Wong-out at just below -1.

The downside is obviously the higher Kelly fraction of the two-handed version: it is roughly double, which is no small increase when you're talking about Kelly proportions!

Are you saying one must bet twice min bet on each of his two hands at the $25 level. I see that some places at the $10 or $15 level, but I have not had to do that at the $25 level where I play.

 

[Zerg]

2 hand explanation

The idea I was getting at is that imo if you play 2 hands at 500 and have been playing 2 hands the whole time, it is probably less heat than 1 hand of $1000. I may be wrong, it is just a feeling I have with no real proof. It is a leftover idea from my red chip days when my desired bet was btwn $150 and $200 but you get "checks play" at $100. Could play all day spreading 2 hands of $5 to $95. Back to our $500 to $1000 max bet example, play all hands is going to score slighly less than spreading to 2 when called for, but I am still happy to play all (well, wong but play 2 hands the entire time I'm playing) at $25 to $400+.

Also, thanks to KJ. It was mostly your posts that convinced me to play this shoe game hit and run style.

 

[moo321]

You have a max bet of like $1500? It's hard to lay that down, to be honest. Maybe you should get a couple of spotters?

 

[White Guy]

Thanks for all the advice.

Spotters would be great but I have had a hard time finding anyone to fit the bill.

It almost seems like a better strategy to play lower limits, maybe less than $500 max, in order to get more time in. Or premium DD games, play higher but spread less?

Interesting point too is I haven't really put a lot of time in @ Vegas but the last couple times I was there I ran into two of the same counters at the same games at different Casinos owned by the same Company. One night each of them were playing at a separate tables of the same game and each were playing one hand of 25 and then spreading to two hands of 300 when the count was up. Using NO COVER that I could see. Even dropping back down to $25 after ending a shoe at 2X 300 in one instance. Not sure how long that lasted for, it was a busy weekend though so maybe it wasn't a problem but it seemed crazy to me.

 

[White Guy]

Oh and Kewl J, to clarify I was talking about on strip games. The time I got backed off I was just playing red and green messing around at an off strip casino I was meeting someone at. I didn't even bet more than $80 I think. I guess it wasn't really a back off though. I was just told that I can't change my bet anymore but I was welcome to play. I obviously just left though.

It seems you play a lot I am guessing at to 25-3 or 400 dollar range?? Any issues with that? How much time are you able to put in?

Thanks