Bad Streaks

#1
Hey guys, I'm new to this forum but I've been playing cards for years at Barona Casino in San Diego. Until recently, I've had a decent run, but as of now I've been in a bad losing streak. Literally 4 to 5 trips and nada.

They run a good game there but still I feel like something's amiss.

I'm aware of variance but at the end of the day should I just stay out for a while or keep at it since eventually it should end.
 

ZenKinG

Well-Known Member
#2
If you're counting and actually have an edge, you should be prepared for 200+ hour losing streaks, but as long as you keep at it, you should come out ahead. I'm in the middle of my longest losing streak ever at about 250 hours, but have done well overall.

If you're just using just basic strategy or whatever you do and don't have an edge, just be happy you had a decent run to begin with.
 

Ryemo

Well-Known Member
#3
Last year I had a 300+ hr break even period. I lost 45K in 185 hrs and it took the next 120 ish hrs to win it all back. That’s how this game goes.
 
#4
its not hard to count cards, it doesn't require a HIGH IQ just a basic math and you will do fine

things get tricky as Zenking mentions losing 250 hours clocked in can demolish your Bankroll to pennys and ontop of that you can get banned by the casino management if they feel you are a threat

thats pretty much what stops the 99.9% of counters bankrolls and barrings
 
#5
yes losing 45k, you have to have 45k to lose that much lol i have no idea what game Ryemo was playing if offered LS or a 6-8decker or even his max bets if his max bet was 100$ (which i doubt cause he seems to be a BJ guru on here) then that would mean he lost 400 or more max bets , best way to go in is 100 max bets and even then you can still lose it all during those bad periods or better yet lose 1/2 and followed by a barring , me being limited on so little tables id have little to no option but to move to vegas but im not willing to do all that cause i don't have the BR or even the act like a gambler i think they would spot me and id be hoping from casino to casino lol
 

Hell'nBack

Well-Known Member
#6
Ryemo said:
Last year I had a 300+ hr break even period. I lost 45K in 185 hrs and it took the next 120 ish hrs to win it all back. That’s how this game goes.

Well, a 5% drawdown isn't terrible. I know APs that have lost 50% of their bank during a horrendous run of miserable cards.
 

Ryemo

Well-Known Member
#7
It was much more than 5% of my bankroll, but it all worked out. After escaping 300 hrs of breaking even, I’ve been on an insane run. This game is filled with many highs and lows.
 

BoSox

Well-Known Member
#8
ZenKinG said:
If you're counting and actually have an edge, you should be prepared for 200+ hour losing streaks, but as long as you keep at it, you should come out ahead.
Stevel96a1 said:
things get tricky as Zenking mentions losing 250 hours clocked in can demolish your Bankroll to pennys and ontop of that you can get banned by the casino management if they feel you are a threat

thats pretty much what stops the 99.9% of counters bankrolls and barrings
Nobody is going to want to hear this, but we should all be truthful here. Let's discuss one very big reason why card counting ends up as a failure for the majority of people that tried doing it fulltime on their own. I am not saying this from experience as I was never a full- time player, I was, and still am a part-time very serious player, but that does not diminish the fact that I learned from reading thousands of threads from the best in the business.

Does the person who is attempting full time play have another source of income separate from gaming to cover living expenses? If not I do not think they completely understand what they are up against. Of course there are a few rare exceptions to everything like our own member KJ who when he first came out to Vegas was a workaholic averaging around 84 hours a week and living dirt cheap, and him being the honest person that he is will say he was very lucky that he did not start out with a big negative swing.

You have the edge, you ran the sims for a low ROR and you think you have this made WHAT. Small to midsize bankrolls REQUIRE A HUNDRED PERCENT reinvestment of gaming capital in order for the player to have a good to reasonable chance at success. Sorry, that is the fact. If for example over the last month the player won 3 k gaming and used 3 k for expenses he/she had a break even month. Can anyone see the difficulty in attempting this endeavor? Especially when a normal or bigger size negative swing hits and the player either must take on more risk to meet living expenses or, downsize the unit bet delaying the inevitable outcome. When you are playing with no risk the player does not have to worry about ROR. Life is not fair but the truth hurts sometimes.
 
#9
BoSox said:
Nobody is going to want to hear this, but we should all be truthful here. Let's discuss one very big reason why card counting ends up as a failure for the majority of people that tried doing it fulltime on their own. I am not saying this from experience as I was never a full- time player, I was, and still am a part-time very serious player, but that does not diminish the fact that I learned from reading thousands of threads from the best in the business.

Does the person who is attempting full time play have another source of income separate from gaming to cover living expenses? If not I do not think they completely understand what they are up against. Of course there are a few rare exceptions to everything like our own member KJ who when he first came out to Vegas was a workaholic averaging around 84 hours a week and living dirt cheap, and him being the honest person that he is will say he was very lucky that he did not start out with a big negative swing.

You have the edge, you ran the sims for a low ROR and you think you have this made WHAT. Small to midsize bankrolls REQUIRE A HUNDRED PERCENT reinvestment of gaming capital in order for the player to have a good to reasonable chance at success. Sorry, that is the fact. If for example over the last month the player won 3 k gaming and used 3 k for expenses he/she had a break even month. Can anyone see the difficulty in attempting this endeavor? Especially when a normal or bigger size negative swing hits and the player either must take on more risk to meet living expenses or, downsize the unit bet delaying the inevitable outcome. When you are playing with no risk the player does not have to worry about ROR. Life is not fair but the truth hurts sometimes.
You're telling me
 

psyduck

Well-Known Member
#10
Computer sim looks great because it never ran out of money and it can play a few billion rounds in a few minutes! In reality, well everyone knows...........
 

JJP

Well-Known Member
#11
psyduck said:
Computer sim looks great because it never ran out of money and it can play a few billion rounds in a few minutes! In reality, well everyone knows...........
Yep. We are all stars in the sims. When its real, hard earned money on the line, it can be a different story.

I have to give credit to these guys who've weathered several hundred hour losing streaks. I'm guessing these players had prolonged winning streaks before the long losing streaks, so they knew that it wasn't their game; it was just bad variance. But even so, at some point one has to wonder how long they can take negative variance.

I've only got about 50 hours of live play at this point. If after 200 hours, I am still down, I would have to seriously consider if I would keep playing. We can talk process all we want, but eventually, outcomes DO matter.
 

KewlJ

Well-Known Member
#12
BoSox said:
Of course there are a few rare exceptions to everything like our own member KJ who when he first came out to Vegas was a workaholic averaging around 84 hours a week and living dirt cheap, and him being the honest person that he is will say he was very lucky that he did not start out with a big negative swing..
While I agree with everything you stated BoSox, I do want to correct the record. The really lucky part of my career was the first few years, pre-Vegas, living in Philadelphia and playing Atlantic City. That was the period that I lived dirt cheap, sharing a fairly cheap apartment, and basically living on a diet of mac and cheese and peanut butter & jelly sandwiches, while I tried to grow my small and inadequate bankroll, which took 3 years. THIS was the point that even a mild negative swing would have wiped me out. I was very lucky that never occurred.

By the time I relocated to Vegas, I had managed to grow my BR to the point that I was spreading green to light black. Moving up in stakes to green chip level was actually the tipping point in that I started to get some heat in AC, where I had played unmolested at the red chip level for years. I realized I was going to need a much bigger rotation than AC had to offer.

It is true that my first year in Vegas, I logged a lot of hours. But I was alone in Vegas, (my partner followed me from Philly a year later), so I would be out of the condo 12-15 hours a day. Not all playing, as I mixed in meals and even occasion breaks to take in a baseball game. But I racked up a lot of play that first year or 18 months.

Anyway, I agree with the premise of what you are saying, just wanted to correct the details of my record.


BoSox said:
Does the person who is attempting full time play have another source of income separate from gaming to cover living expenses? If not I do not think they completely understand what they are up against.
I think this is a real important issue, especially since there have been a number of folks recently undertaking this playing fulltime or for a living.

I had some discussions (private and public) with Kim Lee at BJ21 about this. Kim Lee believed that for a fulltime playing, playing for a living, everything he owned, his complete net worth counted as bankroll. I always had trouble with this concept. That puts too much mental burden on a player, IMO. Or maybe it's just me that is not mentally strong enough, so it places extra mental pressure on me, when you hit one of those extended downhill runs.

I believe a better way is to separate out BR from living expenses and other finances. And that is especially true for guys starting out. I'll use Zenking as an example (sorry Zenking). I think he has like 45k remaining. I would set aside a year's living expenses (a cheap as possible), 10, 12, 15 grand and then make the remaining 30k, your BR and size bets, spread and ramp according to that. But you gotta be willing to lose most of that. You can't have the mentality that if you lose 5, 7, 8 thousand you freak out and stop playing, because if you do that you really are only playing to that 5, 7 or 8 k BR (freak out point) and basing your bets on the much larger amount, means you are really playing to an astronomical RoR. Suicidal RoR!

But the key is that as hard as it is, you have got to be willing to risk most of whatever amount you determine to be your BR. If you are not, then you are overbetting and almost guaranteeing the "ruin" part of RoR. I mean, maybe you set aside an extra 5k as emergency money, or stop when the BR gets down to that last 5 k, and say ok, I need to find a job and, and re-evaluate where I am and what I am doing and where I am going.

Your really not in the clear as far as playing for a living until you have grown your BR to 100k or close to it. Below that level, you have to really work at it.
 

KewlJ

Well-Known Member
#13
And I should add, that you have to self discover if you are mentally able to handle the swings as far as finances. You are going to experience 500 hour negative runs! (maybe even longer) The whole period, you are not losing. These runs usually work as Ryemo recently described: A couple hundred hours of losing a significant amount, followed by several hundred hours or slow recovery back to point zero. So After 500, 600 or more hours, you are right where you started, minus living expenses! :eek: You have to find out if you can handle this, because not everyone can.

But also as Ryemo recently described, you also have periods, hundreds of hours that you run amazingly well, many times above EV. :) If would be nice if we could schedule these runs and hit the positive run first, followed by a negative run and rebound. But that is NOT the way it works. :rolleyes:
 

BoSox

Well-Known Member
#14
KJ, I do not want you to be the last to know, I posted my post on the forum thinking it would make a good topic. Unfortunately, I was not thinking this through properly as it has caused a bit of some rehashing of old memories. I am truly sorry for that.
 
#15
KJ you mean to tell me if i ever get a hold of 10k, i am betting off going all in with 100 max bets oppose to losing 5k and quiting? infact you are saying if i am going to card count i should do so with a 10k or nothing otherwise its a bad gamble? am i in the ball park? (unless i am a young Kool jay, Yoshi, or a FLash, but i am probably a Billybjkid) lol
 

KewlJ

Well-Known Member
#16
BoSox said:
KJ, I do not want you to be the last to know, I posted my post on the forum thinking it would make a good topic. Unfortunately, I was not thinking this through properly as it has caused a bit of some rehashing of old memories. I am truly sorry for that.
No problem, BoSox. Will give me something to read when I get home shortly.
 

Ryemo

Well-Known Member
#17
I responded to BoSox’s post on BJTF, so I’ll repost here as well:

I think in order to play full time successfully you need a few things:

1) First, and most obvious, is be well funded. I don’t think 100 max bets will suffice in this situation.
2) Keep a very low RoR. Preferably under 2%.
3) Keep your expenses in check (personal and travel).
4) Play a lot of hours!
5) Keep your cover (costing EV) and tokes in check.
6) Build a network.
7) Try to lower your N-Zero as much as you can, whether it means widening your spread or playing better games.

If you lack in one or more of these categories, then try to compensate for it somewhere else. Example: if you have a hard time logging a ton of hours every year, then I think your focus should be on playing games with a very low N-Zero and try to keep your ROR as close to 0% as you can. You’ll need to keep your personal expenses very low too. If your bankroll isn’t as big as you’d like, then I think your goal should be to grind out an insane amount of hours, drop all cover and NEVER tip. Bankroll survival is your biggest concern at this point, not longevity. Tell me how your longevity looks when you bust out...

Idealy, every full time player wants to fit all of these categories, but if you can’t meet all those requirements, then you’ll need to make up for it somewhere else. I’m sure I missed a couple things, but this is what came to mind at the top of my head.
 

Ryemo

Well-Known Member
#18
KewlJ said:
Your really not in the clear as far as playing for a living until you have grown your BR to 100k or close to it. Below that level, you have to really work at it.
I agree with this.
 

KewlJ

Well-Known Member
#19
KewlJ said:
No problem, BoSox. Will give me something to read when I get home shortly.
Ok, I have read it. I am not going to comment on most of the attacks in that thread of a member who hasn't participated on the site for more than 2 years. I just think that is a pretty low thing to do (or allow).

But I do want to comment on the discussion of my recent health situation. Really? These people are going to discuss someone's health situation of which they know nothing about and got it all wrong. o_O And the owner is going to allow that? That seems a new low of low to me. But I guess I am not surprised.

I have been pretty open about my health situation last fall as it was going on. If someone wanted to discuss it, they could have popped in here and done so. But to just make shit up about someone's health and make up facts that are completely wrong....well I have already said it...that's the act of pretty small people.
 

KewlJ

Well-Known Member
#20
Stevel96a1 said:
KJ you mean to tell me if i ever get a hold of 10k, i am betting off going all in with 100 max bets oppose to losing 5k and quiting? infact you are saying if i am going to card count i should do so with a 10k or nothing otherwise its a bad gamble? am i in the ball park? (unless i am a young Kool jay, Yoshi, or a FLash, but i am probably a Billybjkid) lol
First, THAT is not what I said. You continue to read what you want to read or just interpret things incorrectly, not sure which? BUT yes, if someone has a 10k BR and sizes their bets, spread and ramp to that 10k BR, but quits after losing 5k.....then they were never really playing to a 10k BR. They were playing to a 5k BR, but sizing bets to a 10k BR. That is over-betting and almost guarantees ruin!

But the bigger issue for me of this post is your continuing attitude. Repeatedly using my name for one. There is a word for that and it is "doxing". And I am pretty sure, this is intentional on your part to cause me harm as far as playing.

This site has an ignore feature. I have never used it until now. But you are no longer worthy of my time. Bye bye, Stevel9ga1.
 
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