I had a road trip some short time ago to the southern tier of Minnesota and Wisconsin, in search of advanced AP opportunities in these low-heat 4D and DD games. I was bankrolled for a 10% risk of trip ruin assuming straight counting, which is also a good opportunity due to the reasonable pen around here.
First day: landed in MSP and headed to Mystic Lake, examining the shuffles and playing the 4/1 shoes. Nothing interesting on the shuffles, pen was OK but it's a H17 store so no reason to stick around there too long. Left $300 up and was felled by a tremendous headache so I took a dozen aspirin and slept it off in the car before heading west.
Jackpot Junction- pretty much the same, but S17 and lower limits. Took my notes and headed out even.
Prairie's Edge- decided here was where I'd crash for the night so I played the place through. Had nice counts, decent pen and no heat, did my thing and left up $1XXX.
The next day: I went back to the Edge and gave most of it back. What a disaster. All of these casinos were quite crowded which made Wonging difficult, most of the loss was bleeding to death on low counts with a few unpleasant surprises on high ones. Turned out the dealer I had played the night before was blowing the shuffle so my analysis was worthless. Left disgusted but not defeated. Back to the Junction and and had more of the same, this time I kept getting good counts shoved up my ass with of course the count being trashed by the end of the hand. Paint falling everywhere but on me. Left tired and worn, and off to my next stop, Treasure Island near the WI state line. This is a good place to avoid, bad pen everywhere, no good advanced AP opportunities and I left down $900 for the trip. Talked my way out of a speeding ticket from a state trooper and found a place to stay closer to my final store of the trip, the Mighty Turtle in Wisconsin.
Next day at the Turtle. I switched cover acts from local degenerate to travelling businessman to defeat any rumors that might be following me and help cover the larger action I'd invariably be playing at the DD games. I would play a total of 12 hours there. Things started out crappy but after a break at the craps table things turned to gold. I crushed a 4D and a DD game in succession, getting around 300 hands per hour heads up from a dealer and had built up a mighty tower of chips. Up over $3K, no heat at all. Then in my final hour of play, I don't know what to call this kind of variance, but it was the most stark, cruel, give-me-all-your-money-and-go-home-you-sucker variance I have ever experienced. In one hour I gave it all back. Lost 10 big bets in a row at one point plus 4 insurance bets on top of them. Ploppy next to me was turning naturals as easy as I was busting stiffs. Frustrated and exhausted were I could not honestly say I was playing at an appropriate skill level I left, down only $300 for the trip although the swings made it feel like an unmitigated disaster.
That's not what I go on a road trip for, but the math tells me that it could have been much worse and still be considered normal and expectable. Oh well, that's variance. Next time, I'm going to resist the temptation of a very cheap air ticket and leave the small-market game research to the locals and the travelling pros and pick a venue where I don't have to travel an hour between stores.
First day: landed in MSP and headed to Mystic Lake, examining the shuffles and playing the 4/1 shoes. Nothing interesting on the shuffles, pen was OK but it's a H17 store so no reason to stick around there too long. Left $300 up and was felled by a tremendous headache so I took a dozen aspirin and slept it off in the car before heading west.
Jackpot Junction- pretty much the same, but S17 and lower limits. Took my notes and headed out even.
Prairie's Edge- decided here was where I'd crash for the night so I played the place through. Had nice counts, decent pen and no heat, did my thing and left up $1XXX.
The next day: I went back to the Edge and gave most of it back. What a disaster. All of these casinos were quite crowded which made Wonging difficult, most of the loss was bleeding to death on low counts with a few unpleasant surprises on high ones. Turned out the dealer I had played the night before was blowing the shuffle so my analysis was worthless. Left disgusted but not defeated. Back to the Junction and and had more of the same, this time I kept getting good counts shoved up my ass with of course the count being trashed by the end of the hand. Paint falling everywhere but on me. Left tired and worn, and off to my next stop, Treasure Island near the WI state line. This is a good place to avoid, bad pen everywhere, no good advanced AP opportunities and I left down $900 for the trip. Talked my way out of a speeding ticket from a state trooper and found a place to stay closer to my final store of the trip, the Mighty Turtle in Wisconsin.
Next day at the Turtle. I switched cover acts from local degenerate to travelling businessman to defeat any rumors that might be following me and help cover the larger action I'd invariably be playing at the DD games. I would play a total of 12 hours there. Things started out crappy but after a break at the craps table things turned to gold. I crushed a 4D and a DD game in succession, getting around 300 hands per hour heads up from a dealer and had built up a mighty tower of chips. Up over $3K, no heat at all. Then in my final hour of play, I don't know what to call this kind of variance, but it was the most stark, cruel, give-me-all-your-money-and-go-home-you-sucker variance I have ever experienced. In one hour I gave it all back. Lost 10 big bets in a row at one point plus 4 insurance bets on top of them. Ploppy next to me was turning naturals as easy as I was busting stiffs. Frustrated and exhausted were I could not honestly say I was playing at an appropriate skill level I left, down only $300 for the trip although the swings made it feel like an unmitigated disaster.
That's not what I go on a road trip for, but the math tells me that it could have been much worse and still be considered normal and expectable. Oh well, that's variance. Next time, I'm going to resist the temptation of a very cheap air ticket and leave the small-market game research to the locals and the travelling pros and pick a venue where I don't have to travel an hour between stores.
