the one thing i like about your tact of quiting when you are ahead is that you end up having more 'firepower' as a result in that the profit could be added to your bankroll.
there are two problems with this tact as i see it (and i'm a quiter when i'm ahead counting player [stop play at within one standard deviation above my expected value]).
problem 1. how do you determine how far ahead is enough? in other words lets say you are ahead and quit but unknowingly if you had continued play perhaps your winning streak would continue or let us say you are winning and playing then quit too late and in the process lose some of what you won. what is the magic quit number?
problem 2. you quit when you were ahead so for that session you can proclaim the victory of beating a negative expectation game........... but of course there is always tomorrow. and every tomorrow you will be facing once again that same negative expectation game. what happens if tomorrow you never get ahead? how deep do you allow yourself to sink before you quit? here again you might have some stop loss point but now you don't know that the very next run of hands may have been winner for you. this is the never ending problem if you as a basic strategy only player are going to be faced with as a 'regular' indulger of the game of blackjack.
it is difficult to draw a distinction between long-term and short-term. there is a formula that is called NO. i believe the NO formula can in a sense determine when you are likely to reach a long-term expectation result. i may be wrong in my recollection but i believe counters tend to reach their NO at around ten thousand to forty thousand hands more or less. i guess a way of looking at it is the NO is the point where the statistics relevant for the manner of play and the nature of game begin to present in the way predicted by the expected value and expected standard deviation. so in a statistical sense your current "good luck streak" meaning you shall lose soon is meaningless in the short term. but in the long term there shall be a tendency for the "good and bad luck" to represent via standards of deviation about the expected value that holds sway for the manner of play and nature of the game (this ala the normal distribution graph that would represent the statistical results of long term play of the game). unfortuanately for the strictly basic strategy player the expected value is a negative number which represents a loss of money where as the card counter's expected value is a positive number which represents a gain of money.
best regards,
mr fr0g
there are two problems with this tact as i see it (and i'm a quiter when i'm ahead counting player [stop play at within one standard deviation above my expected value]).
problem 1. how do you determine how far ahead is enough? in other words lets say you are ahead and quit but unknowingly if you had continued play perhaps your winning streak would continue or let us say you are winning and playing then quit too late and in the process lose some of what you won. what is the magic quit number?
problem 2. you quit when you were ahead so for that session you can proclaim the victory of beating a negative expectation game........... but of course there is always tomorrow. and every tomorrow you will be facing once again that same negative expectation game. what happens if tomorrow you never get ahead? how deep do you allow yourself to sink before you quit? here again you might have some stop loss point but now you don't know that the very next run of hands may have been winner for you. this is the never ending problem if you as a basic strategy only player are going to be faced with as a 'regular' indulger of the game of blackjack.
it is difficult to draw a distinction between long-term and short-term. there is a formula that is called NO. i believe the NO formula can in a sense determine when you are likely to reach a long-term expectation result. i may be wrong in my recollection but i believe counters tend to reach their NO at around ten thousand to forty thousand hands more or less. i guess a way of looking at it is the NO is the point where the statistics relevant for the manner of play and the nature of game begin to present in the way predicted by the expected value and expected standard deviation. so in a statistical sense your current "good luck streak" meaning you shall lose soon is meaningless in the short term. but in the long term there shall be a tendency for the "good and bad luck" to represent via standards of deviation about the expected value that holds sway for the manner of play and nature of the game (this ala the normal distribution graph that would represent the statistical results of long term play of the game). unfortuanately for the strictly basic strategy player the expected value is a negative number which represents a loss of money where as the card counter's expected value is a positive number which represents a gain of money.
best regards,
mr fr0g
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