basic questions about basic strat

#1
Been practicing BS. Seems pretty simple, just common sense for the most part. At first I didn't realize why it was a good decision to double at certain times. Like always at 11 except for when the dealer has an ace. But I thought about for a second, and now it makes sense to do that, because if you get a face card then you win, and if you get a weak card you can still hope for the dealer to bust. So, yeah, I'm pretty sure it's as simple as that but there's still a few other things that I'm just not seeing. Like why is it generally not good to split fours? Why should you not split nines if the dealer is showing 7? Is it because if the dealer has a face card then you automatically win? and if not you just hope for a bust? Just little things like that I'm still working on. Sorry if these little simple questions seem silly but I want to make this BS basic knowledge to me, a second nature.
 

shadroch

Well-Known Member
#2
BS is the result of billions and billions of hands played on computers to see which move makes you the most money.Sometimes its not the way that will win the highest percentage of the time,but the way that makes the most money. It sounds like a contradiction,but its really not.Here is an example.
You have Ace/Seven vs a 3.If you stand pat,you'll win 58% of the time,while Doubling Down results in you winning 55%. So why does BS say DD?
Take 100 such hands,played at $10 each. If you stand you win 58 for $580 and lose 42( $420) for a net gain of $160.
If you Double Down the hundred hands,you win only 55 for $1100 and lose 45($900) for a net gain of $200.
You just made $40 by losing an additional three hands.Pretty good work if you could do that fulltime,eh?

This example is taken from Blackjack Bluebook,an excellant guide for beginning players.
 

GeorgeD

Well-Known Member
#3
BS isn't always common sense.

Smoetimes a spot is defensive to make a bad situation better. People love 8's cause they get a chance to split. Well, don't woot when you see those 8's .... you got a 16! Hit 2 8's against a dealer 9, 10 or A and you'll lose $52 for every $ $100 bet. Split the 8's into two hands and you will lose about $43 per $100 bet. Still sucks, but saves you $9. I think that analysis considers that you may get a 4 one one 8 and double your 11.
 

callipygian

Well-Known Member
#4
Also realize the mnemonic about assuming unseen cards are 10's is basically false. If you're going to double, the chances of you hitting a 10 is less than 1/3. So to assume that your hard 11 will be doubled to 21 and the dealer 7 will be a dealer 17 is untrue 89% of the time.

Thinking of the dealer's hole card and your next dealt card as a 10 is a useful memory tool for hard hands, but is completely useless when it comes to soft hands and split hands. The bottom line is what shadroch said - computers have analyzed billlions of hand combinations, and that's what basic strategy is based on.
 

Mimosine

Well-Known Member
#5
Rook said:
Like why is it generally not good to split fours?
again, as previous people have posted, it's all in the math.

but i'll take a crude crack at your 4's.

you have a 4,4 = 8

how many cards get you to a pat hand of 17-19?
9,10,j,q,k,A
how many cards get you on your way to a pat hand of 20-21?
2,3
how many cards give you a potential stiff 12-16?
4,5,6,7,8

now let's look at those 4's as a pair to split:

4

let's look at it differently

how many cards help you?
3,4,5,6,7, ~A
then you'll have to hit again with anything from 7-11.

you will be able to double if you get a 6 or 7, unless the dealer has a 5/6 up, then a 5 will get you to 9.

how many cards hurt you?
2,8,9,10,J,Q,K,T, ~A?

so the way i look at this, from a crude non-mathematical first approximation, only against really weak dealer cards like 5 or 6 do you stand a shot at making some $$$.
 
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