Basic Statistics

N

NewbieCC

Member
#1
#1
This last week I joined an on-line casino (Microgaming) that I had not played before. After 360 hands of BJ, I had met my wagering requirements and, I finished down 60 units. 60 units down is not unusual, I understand but it was strange because it was such a small number of hands and I was never up, just kept siding down, down, down. According to my calcs, this is -3.03 S.D. I came about this be using 1.1*sqrt(n) where n=number of hands played, an approximation used in Don Schlesinger's book. Is this correct? Am I also correct in assuming that this will happen approx. 1 out of 100 times?

Thanks,
NewbieCC
 
T

The Mayor

Well-Known Member
#2
#2
That is a lot to lose. But not that out of the ordinary.

I have played MG quite a bit. I suggest you do the circuit, and play lots of hands, you will not always take such a hit.

Double check your strategy, for MG it is not standard B.S., they offer a single deck game with a couple of weird rules (like splitting T's and getting an A is BJ). The complete strategy for MG is at (Dead link: http://www.thewizardofodds.com) _www.thewizardofodds.com_.

Good luck!
 
N

NewbieCC

Member
#4
#4
Thanks, Mayor. I am pretty anal retentive when it comes to checking out the rules, and finding the right BS chart. I have been playing from that very strategy chart from The Wizard of Odds.

NewbieCC
 
A

Adam N. Subtractum

Well-Known Member
#6
#6
1 in 100??? More like...

1 in 1000!!! Assuming a break-even game, your SD was 3.01435406698. Brief perusal of Wong's PBJ, Table 83, "The Area in the Tail of the Normal Distribution", allows us to deduce that this particular scenario had about a .1% chance of occuring.

I think you said you were using the BS charts from the Wiz's site, correct? If so , they are no doubt accurate, is it possible that you made any strategy errors during the course of your play? If not, I would be a little leery, _anything__ over 3 SD's smells funny to me...

ANS
 
R

Rob McGarvey

Well-Known Member
#7
#7
Re: Basic Statistics - correction

"Correction: It was 361 hands and I ended down 63 units."

I am often up over 63 units. If the game pays out 98.5% then I have your money! ;> Seriously, if this is a Micro site or a BOSS site, or any other reputable site out there, I doubt you go cheated. What was your deposit? Probably less than 1% of your real world bankroll. Try playing two hands of bj into a +5TC, double one, split the other, then doubling one of the split hands and watch the dealer blow you with 6 up 10 down and a 5 pulled.

When we win, it's skill. When we lose, we got cheated. ;>
 
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