Basic Strategy surrounded by not BS

Neo · Jul 31, 2006

I haven't been able to get a good answer to this question:

"Can the plays of other players change your EV?"

This one happened to me last night. I'm 2nd in from third base with a hard 20, easy stand. 3rd base has a 15, the dealer is showing a Ten. And he stands!!
The delear flips a 5, also having a 15. Draw a 6 to 21, and everyone at the table looses.

If the 15 had followed BS, everyone probably would have won.

However, let's look at another play, same guy. I've got an 11, the dealer is showing a 6. I double down, draw a 4 to 15. 3rd base is looking at a hard 12. And he DOUBLES DOWN. WTF? I was thinking. He draw an 8 to 20. The dealer flips over a 7, for 13, draws a ten to bust. If third base had obeyed BS, everyone would have lost to a dealer draw to 21.

Anyone got any notes, links, or explanations of other players play changing your odds?

Thanks, this is driving me nuts.

stinkus · Jul 31, 2006

This is just my opinion and observation. How they play there hand does not affect my EV. The number of times they save the table is usually about equal to the number of times they screw over the table. The only EV I perceive them to be hurting are their own. Example, they have a 15 and dealer is showing a 10, they decide to stand instead of hit if the dealer already had a natural then it doesn't affect your hand at all. Now just as many times as they make a silly hit when they shouldn't and steal your good card they also steal bad cards at times as well so in my opinion all of their plays even out for YOU.

tedloc · Jul 31, 2006

Read this article from Fred Renzy

Dealer's Hand
2 - 10

5 - 10 10 - 5
3rd Base You

9 - 10
Next 2 cards

Let's just have a little peak at the dealer's hole card, shall we? As you can see, it's a 10 giving him 12. But let's not stop there. You see, I've just bribed the dealer into flashing us a glimpse of the next two cards in the shoe? They're a 9 and a 10, but he flashed them so quickly that we couldn't tell which card was first and which was second.
Now you know everything there is to know except for the final outcome. So, I ask you again. How do you want the third baseman to play his hand? Notice that if he hits, no matter which card comes first, he loses. And if he stands, he's got a 50-50 shot at winning. So, obviously, hitting would be a horrible play -- for him. But how does that affect your chances?
If the third baseman stands like you probably want him to, and the 9 is first out of the shoe, the dealer makes 21. But if the 10 comes first, the dealer busts. Now, instead, what happens if the third baseman hits? Well, when the 9 comes first, the dealer gets the 10 and busts. But if the 10 is the first card out, the dealer makes 21 with the 9. Now, I'm going to ask you one last time. How do you want the third baseman to play his hand?
Can you see that while hitting his hand is the wrong play for Mr. 3rd Base, your odds to win remain the same no matter what he does? That's absolutely true because your chance to win really doesn't depend upon whether the 3rd baseman plays his hand right or wrong but upon which card is first out of the shoe. Many times it won't matter whether the dealer gets the first or the second card –- they'll either both make him or break him. But when it does matter, you never know which blind card you want him to get. Therefore, being all hung up over whether the 3rd baseman stands or hits is just plain silly.
Now, your immediate response to the above scenario may be that it only works this way because of the particular hypothetical situation that I've set up. Well then, go ahead and replace the dealer's hole card with any other you wish. Also replace the next two cards in the shoe with any others, as well. You'll find that whenever it makes any difference at all, it always come down to that same question of whether the first or second card out of the shoe is better for the dealer. And if you think you know the answer to that question in advance, then I want to gamble against you all day long!

Mikeaber · Jul 31, 2006

Neo said:

NEO, you have answered you own question. A "bad" player will help you as often as he will hurt you. Play your game and don't let the play of others impact your attitude. If it does bother you, find another table. You've got to get past kind of thinking though because you will regularly encounter those situations.

edited "A "bad" player will help you as often as he will help you"...sorry!!!!!!!

stinkus · Jul 31, 2006

You want an interesting experience. Go play spanish 21 using spanish 21 basic strategy. Basic strategy for spanish 21 when a dealer stands on soft is to ALWAYS hit on 12 and 13, even against a dealer 5 or 6. Talk about strange looks you will get and how mad people will get at you. Once i had a hand where i had 13 v a dealer 6 and i said hit me, the dealer asked if i was sure i said yes hit me, again he asked if i was sure and again i said yes i'm sure, he went to say something one more time and i said look i am sure i want a hit. He said ok and hit me and anyone that questioned me i simply said its my money and i will play it how i want to. I used to argue that they should read a book on strategy and how Spanish 21 is different then regular blackjack etc.... but they never wanted to listed so now i jsut go with the i am a moron and will play my money how i want. They give me a funny look, play incorrectly and lose their money much faster than i usually and walk away muttering how come they are losing more then me when they play correct and i don't.....
Try it.
Stinkus

bryan_in oregon · Jul 31, 2006

Card clumping

The one thing people like that might effect is the Card clumping (if you belive in it). Say they hit a small hand but after getting 4-5 cards they stop at 14 because they are scared to hit again. Where if they had hit again maybe taking 2 more small cards to get to 17+, those cards are picked up and put with the discards at the end don't move that far from each other in the shuffle. With a couple of people right next to each other with small cards that magnifies. Then you get a shoe where everyone at the table is dealt small cards for 3 hands, you know that the 10's are coming up and raise your bet up.

zengrifter · Jul 31, 2006

bryan_in oregon said:

Wrong, do not beleive in it - its bull. zg

Neo · Jul 31, 2006

Thanks Guys

Thanks Guys, you've help eliviate this from my mind, so I can just go on playing like I play.

A friend and I are going to play tonight at a $5 table to preform an experiment. He's been watching me on a few trips and following BS he keeps critisizing my play (even though he watches me walk away a winner a lot).

The two plays that drive him nuts are hitting 12 vs a 2 and hitting 16 vs a 7.

I already know those are the smart plays, but can't convince him of it. (Since I almost always bust on those--but hey, you gotta do what has the best EV!!)

We'll both sit down with identical bankrolls and play the same number of hands and see whose "winning" after the session. It'll be fun and it's good to know that I don't have to worry about his "bad plays" messing me up

Thanks again and wish me luck tonight!!

ZMan · Jul 31, 2006

Neo said:

You're on the right track. Stick with Basic Strategy - trust the math that it is based on.

Re: your "see whose winning" comment above...
Even if you play perfect BS and your friend plays by his gut feeling or whatever, SOMETIMES your friend will have a winning session and you will have a losing one.

Re: your "bad plays" comment above...
True, other "bad plays" will help you as often as they hurt you. It's just easier to remember the ones that screwed you.

Good luck!

shadroch · Aug 1, 2006

For those of you who spread your bets greatly-Is your bet spread ever affected by an unpredictable player? Would you hesitate to make a larger bet if the 3b guy is known to double on 12.

Mikeaber · Aug 1, 2006

shadroch said:

Nope. Wouldn't change a thing for me.

Sonny · Aug 1, 2006

shadroch said:

Yup! Sometimes my bets will "spread" to another table. :laugh:

-Sonny-

avs21 · Aug 1, 2006

Sonny said:

You care how bad people are playing? I just move tables when people are so bad that everytime they get something other than 17-21 they take forever and slow down the game.

ihate17 · Aug 1, 2006

Best to just get used to it

If you are looking for a table where basic strategy is played properly, you best bet is to play heads up with the dealer.
Perhaps it is old age creeping in, but as the years have gone by it seems that the number of bad players has increased greatly.

As said before, bad players will help or hurt you evenly over the long run but human nature will cause you to remember the hurts much more than the helps. What that bad player really does is hurt himself.

ihate17

Doc · Aug 1, 2006

There's a pretty good discussion of this fallacy on page 117 of KO blackjack for anyone who has the book and is wondering about it.

nc-tom · Aug 1, 2006

shadroch said:

No your bet spread is based on your count, and the table conditions playing the best way that you know how.If the play of other players does not matter then it DOES NOT Matter.Thats the way I would look at it.

Automatic Monkey · Aug 1, 2006

avs21 said:

I do too. About 25% of the time, when a player is playing really bad at the table, I swear under my breath and stomp off to another table. Usually this happens after a bunch of aces and 10's come out. Can't explain it, must just be a coincidence.

Mikeaber · Aug 1, 2006

Automatic Monkey said:

Yes, and since this is in "Blackjack General" it must be pure frustration with the idiots at the table! If it were in "another category" I'd say that I'd fallen victim to that same frustration! In fact, it frustrated me so badly once at a very large casino in Kansas City, that the Pit Boss came running after me with a comp for two at any restaurant in the Casino and urged me to come back after "the blithering idiots" left!

Amazing! After "cooling off" and getting a good meal, I did indeed find a seat at another table in that same pit! I was really disappointed that I didn't get a spot at the same table with those who so thoroughly steamed me earlier. I would like to have had an opportunity to show them that there were no hard feelings....until...well, it's a vicious circle.

sagefr0g · Aug 1, 2006

shadroch said:

no i would think nothing of it infact the diversion would be amusing. i've seen several players do that where the dealer hollers out DOUBLING ON HARD 12. funny thing was both times the dudes won their doubles

. but what will get me up from a table is if another player has such distracting behavior that i'm in trouble of losing my concentration

.

best regards,
mr fr0g

shadroch · Aug 1, 2006

Okay- another question about unpredictable players.

You have a big bet out.Dealers showing a .Player has 13,and says to hit him. Ever offer to buy his hand,to protect yours.

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