I have no intention of playing any game other than blackjack anytime soon I, was just curious as to which games can be beaten. In case there were certain games that can only be exploited under certain conditions like certain dealers or on promotional offers. I just wanted to know what to look for since I will be at the casino quite freqently. I also wouldn't mind finding a game that is close to even money or possible slightly plus EV so in the future I could play that game for a bit of cover.
Beatable games besides blackjack
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The 'even cards' subset advantage is relatively easy to 'count' and a player can expect to gain a 62% advantage approx 1 in 10,000 decisions. You can detect such a situation by assigning a value of +1 to odd cards. When (and if) your count reaches 160, you know that the average distribution of cards will give you a huge 62% advantage. The beauty of counting baccarat is that there is NO HEAT and although some other subsets are more difficult to monitor, you can record your count and subsets on the baccarat record sheet the casinos provide and no one will have a clue what you are up to! You can also 'sit in' and 'sit out' at will and use spreads of $10-$250K with reltively little heat attention. Also baccarat players are treated like VIPs at most casinos and can expect to earn more comps than BJ players which is an added bonus!
Here is John May's answer to the Griffin argument:
"While the greater part of what these highly respected theorists say is true, it is not impossible to create a card-counting system which can win to a greater extent on the tie bet.
For example, say there are no odd cards remaining in the pack. There are only 5 possible totals:-0,2,4,6,8. The odds of a tie are doubled. You have an advantage of 62% on average.
You can detect such a situation by assigning a value of +1 to odd cards. When (and if) your count reaches 160, you know that the average distribution of cards will give you a huge 62% advantage.
The optimal bet (the bet which best balances risk with returns) is 7.8% of your bankroll. The optimal bet size is so high because the bet is so favourable.
So, given initial bankroll of $50,000 you ought to bet roughly $3800. You would expect to win an amazing $2,356 on average each time you made this bet.
Unfortunately this very favourable opportunity occurs rarely. Assuming we make our last wager having seen all but a generous 8-13 cards we can calculate the opportunity by the following methods: The chance of 8 even cards appearing on the bottom of the deck is mathematically the same as 8 cards off the top. This is given by dividing 416 by 256 (total number of even cards) to determine the chance of one even card appearing, then multiplying this figure by the result of 415 divided by 255, and so on until we reach 404/244. Then take the probabilities of having this extreme subset occur for 8 through to 13 cards, add them up, then divide by 6. It turns out we will encounter an all-even subset roughly once in every 10,000 hands!
This represents an earning per hundred hands of roughly $24. Subtracting the effects of making 10,000 $5 (roughly 1% house edge) table minimum bank wagers, we see that the system earns roughly $19 per hour. Not bad perhaps, but not a particularly good return on investment when we consider the alternative earnings from blackjack and poker."
Here is John May's answer to the Griffin argument:
"While the greater part of what these highly respected theorists say is true, it is not impossible to create a card-counting system which can win to a greater extent on the tie bet.
For example, say there are no odd cards remaining in the pack. There are only 5 possible totals:-0,2,4,6,8. The odds of a tie are doubled. You have an advantage of 62% on average.
You can detect such a situation by assigning a value of +1 to odd cards. When (and if) your count reaches 160, you know that the average distribution of cards will give you a huge 62% advantage.
The optimal bet (the bet which best balances risk with returns) is 7.8% of your bankroll. The optimal bet size is so high because the bet is so favourable.
So, given initial bankroll of $50,000 you ought to bet roughly $3800. You would expect to win an amazing $2,356 on average each time you made this bet.
Unfortunately this very favourable opportunity occurs rarely. Assuming we make our last wager having seen all but a generous 8-13 cards we can calculate the opportunity by the following methods: The chance of 8 even cards appearing on the bottom of the deck is mathematically the same as 8 cards off the top. This is given by dividing 416 by 256 (total number of even cards) to determine the chance of one even card appearing, then multiplying this figure by the result of 415 divided by 255, and so on until we reach 404/244. Then take the probabilities of having this extreme subset occur for 8 through to 13 cards, add them up, then divide by 6. It turns out we will encounter an all-even subset roughly once in every 10,000 hands!
This represents an earning per hundred hands of roughly $24. Subtracting the effects of making 10,000 $5 (roughly 1% house edge) table minimum bank wagers, we see that the system earns roughly $19 per hour. Not bad perhaps, but not a particularly good return on investment when we consider the alternative earnings from blackjack and poker."
There is more than one situation which is favorable in baccarat. If you keep track of the exact composition of the shoe, you would be able to theoretically bet into any favorable tie situation at the end of the shoe. All evens, all tens (guaranteed win), all tens and two ranks that add up to ten, etc.
But again, not worth your time compared to blackjack.
But again, not worth your time compared to blackjack.
Find a dealer who exposes the next card before betting has closed. EV %6 when played properly. If not that, use the card they let you have to sequence all the 9's in a hand shuffled game and bet player when 9 is going to be the next card out. I have been able to apply neither of these skills in a casino but Im sure there are those who could do it.
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An AP craps skill can bring a 2-5% edge if you can roll on-axis at a consistent rate of 20%. But this is betting only on core bets and yourself...so it requires patience and/or fairly empty tables.
But just like callipygan alluded to earlier in the thread, this isn't like keeping track of cards and betting at the right time. It's a physical skill that has frustrated many.
good luck
But just like callipygan alluded to earlier in the thread, this isn't like keeping track of cards and betting at the right time. It's a physical skill that has frustrated many.
good luck
One underlooked Craps +EV is to find a Don't player that will not move their bet if a 6 or 8 is rolled or one who will pick up their Don't bet. Buy these bets when they say "No action on the Don't" or go to pick up their Don't bet.
Another is locking up the dollar. When someone isn't taking full odds on their Pass or Come bets, play the darkside for the same amout they are betting and when a 5 or 9 is rolled, give them x1 odds to put behind, therefore locking up a dollar for every $5 you have on the darkside. You only have a 100% chance of making 20% return after the 5,9 are rolled, everything else is still at the HE.
Another is to be a female player and have pervs give you money.
This sort of grifting is alot easier but alot less fun than perfecting a hardway set to make the 7 show up 1 in every 6.5 times to have an +ev.
Another is locking up the dollar. When someone isn't taking full odds on their Pass or Come bets, play the darkside for the same amout they are betting and when a 5 or 9 is rolled, give them x1 odds to put behind, therefore locking up a dollar for every $5 you have on the darkside. You only have a 100% chance of making 20% return after the 5,9 are rolled, everything else is still at the HE.
Another is to be a female player and have pervs give you money.
This sort of grifting is alot easier but alot less fun than perfecting a hardway set to make the 7 show up 1 in every 6.5 times to have an +ev.
Touche!
My sister had mastered the third advantage play after about three sessions after I introduced her to the wickedness of Dice (may as well have given her heroin). I ran right off to try it too but I find it harder than dice control. I suppose I just haven't found the right perv to give me money.
My sister had mastered the third advantage play after about three sessions after I introduced her to the wickedness of Dice (may as well have given her heroin). I ran right off to try it too but I find it harder than dice control. I suppose I just haven't found the right perv to give me money.
That is not +EV, it is a straight odds bet. You've hedged a 1 dollar win putting $4 on someone else's odds but all those 7's and Yo's on come out rolls will see the house taking 1.4% of your nickel DP bet... Unless your dice controlling sister throws come out 7's and YO's at a rate less than 2 times in 9... in which case she should be in on that DP action with you...
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Now you are not misquoted. Your 1st para says "one underlooked craps +EV...." Your second para starts with "Another is..." To most readers it would imply that it is another craps +EV play when the reality of the second play you discribed is that it is not +EV. The 5 & 9 are only going to be rolled 1 time in 9 respectively. It is a hedge that secures your one dollar win, nothing more. I understand that once you have rolled a non 7-yo-12 on the come out roll the Don't bet is then a favourite to win, but it was still a -EV wager you made, no free odds combination can change that.
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That depends on if you can find a mechanical slot with the In/Hold/Pay little windows. I did this quite a bit back in the mid 90's locally on the $5 slots. Never a big winner, but my limited (in the big scheme of things) came out +EV. So if you saw a machine without action for quite a while, and read the counters, you could get an idea. Divide In by 10 and read the Hold for average payout... if it got to In/8 that was a good one to try.
you can get a lot more than 2-5% if you're really skilled at craps. i'm shooting at about a +6 to +7% expectation and i know there are people in the teens and maybe even 20+. however, as big an edge as it seems compared to card counting, craps is a freaking slow game. the % edge is based on your total bet, which takes place over the entire course of your roll until you make your point/seven out, and you also can't be betting on random shooters.