Best Odds for Matchplay

R

Rumondo

Member
#1
#1
So a buddy and I are going to a local casino in August and I've got a $90 dollar matchplay and he's got a $180 dollar matchplay.

Just curious what our best bet is for turning that into cash.

Since it's a one shot deal would I be better off throwing it down on a high + count in BJ (I usually have a 1k roll betting min of 10) or betting Red/Black and testing out the roulette wheel or any other even money bets that are out there? So if we use it in Blackjack for him especially he'd be putting a lot at risk if it turned into a double or split hand.

Thanks,
JB
 
bj bob

bj bob

Well-Known Member
#2
#2
Rumondo said:
Just curious what our best bet is for turning that into cash.

Thanks,
JB
Click to expand...
There are a few curve balls that a casino can throw at you regarding matchplay promos, so make sure you know the ground rules before slapping down that bet.
Most matchplay tickets are only good for even money bets, but occasionally the dealer slips up or just just doesn't care, so ask him prior to making the bet, i.e. will you get paid 3:2 on a BJ for both portions of your flat bet or just even money on the ticket half? If it's only even money don't play BJ with it. Also keep in mind that in BJ you're only going to win ~43% of all hands, no matter what the count.
The matchplays that I like to use are even money bets on single "0" roulette and field bets on a 3X table IF the house does in fact honor the 2x and 3x payoffs on the 2 and 12, so again make sure you get that clarified before you commit. Both of the aforementioned bets on single "0" and x2/3 field rolls have a HA of 2.77%.
Of course, the pass/ don't pass lines are probably the best odds for any matchplay with an overall HA of 1.4%, so pick your poison.
 
C

cardcounter0

Well-Known Member
#4
#4
If it is for even money bets only, you should bet it on Player in Baccarat.
If it can be used for non-even money bets, then straight up on a single number at Roulette (hopefully, single zero variety).
 
Doofus

Doofus

Well-Known Member
#8
#8
Go to the craps table, wait until a 4 or 10 is the point, and put the coupon down on the don't pass line. Some casinos will allow you to make this bet, most not. I've done it myself.
 
C

cardcounter0

Well-Known Member
#9
#9
Doofus said:
Go to the craps table, wait until a 4 or 10 is the point, and put the coupon down on the don't pass line. Some casinos will allow you to make this bet, most not. I've done it myself.
Click to expand...
Please let me know what casinos will allow you to do this, immediately!!!
 
S

shadroch

Well-Known Member
#10
#10
Its not a matter of a casino allowing you,its a matter of an employee not knowing any better.
I've had dealers let MPs ride until I lose a bet. I once had a dealer let me put up a MP as my bet when I split Aces,but the pit boss caught it before i got my card.
Dealers don't seem to get much training regarding MPS.
 
C

callipygian

Well-Known Member
#13
#13
bj bob said:
How so? my good Rhinoness. It's close to a 50/50 shot on red/ black, even/ odd.
Click to expand...
The basic premise is that the match play doesn't add to your losses, so a large payout is better than a small payout, even if the odds of winning are poor.

For example, assuming you have a 1 unit match play,

The EV for a single-number bet on roulette is:
EV = P(win)*WinAmount - P(lose)*LossAmount
EV(roulette1) = 1/38*(2*35)-37/38*1 = 33/38 = +0.868

The EV for a red/black bet on roulette is:
EV(roulette18) = 18/38*(2*1)-20/38*1 = 16/38 = +0.421

The EV for an don't pass line bet in craps is:
EV(crapsDP) = 949/1980*(2*1)-976/1980*(1) = 922/1980 = +0.466

So while the don't pass line would give you the best chance of winning, the single-number bet on roulette - IF ALLOWED - would have the highest EV. This is exactly why many places limit match plays to even money bets only.
 
EasyRhino

EasyRhino

Well-Known Member
#14
#14
bj bob said:
How so? my good Rhinoness. It's close to a 50/50 shot on red/ black, even/ odd.
Click to expand...
yep, I meant doing 90 $1 bets on a single number on roulette. That way you'd get the higher EV of single number bets, plus the lower variance of more trials.

It would also be excruciatingly boring, better suited to online play. (where it's STILL excruciatingly boring if the software is restricting you to 500 spins at a time)
 
bj bob

bj bob

Well-Known Member
#15
#15
Yeah, but...

The only matchplays I've ever seen are for even money bets only, in which case one could play roulette, but only the 1:1 payoffs such as even/odd, red/ black. Same with craps, flat bet on pass/ don't. As previously posted I would drool over a MP promo that allowed odds bets. You better be ready to pick me up at the airport in that case. I do, however think that don't pass lay trick might work, sounds like a nice prank to pull on a moronic crew.:grin::grin:
 
ChefJJ

ChefJJ

Well-Known Member
#16
#16
Doofus said:
Go to the craps table, wait until a 4 or 10 is the point, and put the coupon down on the don't pass line. Some casinos will allow you to make this bet, most not. I've done it myself.
Click to expand...
Seriously ?!? :confused: You found a casino/dealer/box man that let you put a wager on the Don't Pass after the come out roll? :devil: The come out roll is the only point where the house has an advantage on that bet and they just let you get by like that.

Just like cardcounter said, tell us where!!!

BTW, try putting on the Pass Line for the come out and then picking it up if the number travels :cool:
 
Q

quipper

New Member
#17
#17
Rumondo said:
So a buddy and I are going to a local casino in August and I've got a $90 dollar matchplay and he's got a $180 dollar matchplay.

Just curious what our best bet is for turning that into cash.

Since it's a one shot deal would I be better off throwing it down on a high + count in BJ (I usually have a 1k roll betting min of 10) or betting Red/Black and testing out the roulette wheel or any other even money bets that are out there? So if we use it in Blackjack for him especially he'd be putting a lot at risk if it turned into a double or split hand.

Thanks,
JB
Click to expand...
If you want to guarantee a win, then put the $180 MP on the pass line, $270 on don't pass, and $9 on 12. You will win either $81 or $90.
 
bj bob

bj bob

Well-Known Member
#18
#18
quipper said:
If you want to guarantee a win, then put the $180 MP on the pass line, $270 on don't pass, and $9 on 12. You will win either $81 or $90.
Click to expand...
Now there folks is a winning strategy. Good man! :cool2:
 
Doofus

Doofus

Well-Known Member
#19
#19
ChefJJ said:
Seriously ?!? :confused: You found a casino/dealer/box man that let you put a wager on the Don't Pass after the come out roll? :devil: The come out roll is the only point where the house has an advantage on that bet and they just let you get by like that.

Just like cardcounter said, tell us where!!!

BTW, try putting on the Pass Line for the come out and then picking it up if the number travels :cool:
Click to expand...
The last time I did it was Planet Hollywood, back in April if memory serves. Of course the guy rolled the point and I made zippo.
 
C

Cardcounter

Well-Known Member
#20
#20
Craps!

When I get a matchplay I use it to bet the passline a bet an even money bet. Than I take the odds for fun and to gamble when nobody has an advantage. I take the odds for entertainment purposes and to look more like a gambler. After my matchplays are up I will roll a couple more token roles and than get back to blackjack.
 
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