Betting strat.

[Q-Ball]

Hey, Im new to blackjack but am very interested in learning more. if ofcoures there is more to learn.
The only casino i have in my area has a 4 deck continuous shuffler which i assume makes card counting usless. So so far ive just been sticking to the basic stratergy. However ive thought about a betting stratergy and after much thought have decided i dont have the knowhow to predict statistically if i can win in the long term.
The betting strat is fairly basic, it only requires that u double ur bet everytime u lose. say u start out at 10 dollars. u lose your nect bet will b 20 40 80 160 so on. If u win just one game u will b up 10 dollars. i know just following this rule your almost garentied to win small amounts of money but in the long run u will lose 1 large sum which would counter all your winnings, (assuming the house has the edge) but what i cant calculate is blackjacks and doublings. look at it this way. if you have lost say 4 games in a row and your upto a 80 dollar bet. (your down 70 dollars) then lets say u get a blackjack you find urself up 50 dollars (black jack pays 1.5) or you have a chance to double and win your up 90 buks. this obviously increases exponetially as ur bets get larger. However once u reach ur bank limit. your finished.

i have estimated that with this stratergy u should have atleast a 85% chance to win 10% of the amount ur willing to risk assuming thers a 48% chance u win each hand. p=1-(0.52)^n p being the probability of losing n games in a row

Look if you have managed to understand what im saying i would like some helpful responces to my stratergy. Im not interested in being insulted in ne way. so if wat i have just said makes u infuriated by any means please just ignore this post.

 

[Q-Ball]

ok firstly i want to apologize for double posting. it seem to have told me i didnt have permision to post so i repeated the action and 2 posts popped up.

secondly after further reading of this forum i have discoverd that my last post is refuring to the progresive betting strat.

i would like to know if any one has crunched ne numbers.
ofcourse some of you guys are thinking ofcourse u will still lose in long run as the house still has the edge. but im thinking. that since ur increasing ur bet everytime u lose, it means ur blackjacks and doubles are significantly larger.

 

[shadroch]

what you are talking about is called the Martengale.Either google it or search any reputable gambling site and you'll see it is a discredited method that produces lots of very small wins followed by a killer loss.
Almost every beginner thinks it up and most have to prove to themselves its a losing effort.
Do yourself a favor and forget it now.

 

[Q-Ball]

thanx for ur advice.
i think i shal.
think ill move onto texas holdem poker. lol. atleast that isnt restricted by the unevoidable house edge

 

[mdlbj]

I am such an awesome holdem player.. Haha, only played a few tournaments.. Yet won them all. I never practiced yet can bluff, play and BS my way to the top.
When I need to kill time between sessions in LV, I play holdem no limit at the Paris.

 

[QFIT]

Martingale

The following, once posted by Cyrus, is the best explanation of the Martingale system I have ever seen:

"The doubling-up system is one of a class of systems that are sometimes called martingales. The origin of the term is given in the American Heritage Dictionary, New College Edition, which is the most informative definition I have seen on this. The word evolved from [the] similarly named village of Martigues in the Provence district of southern France, whose residents were viewed as peculiar and were roundly ridiculed with Gallic expertise. Their bizarre behavior included such things as gambling with the doubling-up system and lacing up their pants from behind.

To use the doubling-up system became known as gambling à la Martigalo (fem.), "in the Martigues manner", i.e. in a ridiculous manner."

 

[Brutus]

Their bizarre behavior included such things as gambling with the doubling-up system and lacing up their pants from behind.

that has enough elements in it to start a limerick

 

[Sonny]

after further reading of this forum i have discoverd that my last post is refuring to the progresive betting strat. i would like to know if any one has crunched ne numbers.

Plenty of people have:

http://www.bj21.com/bj_reference/pages/10537.html
http://www.bjmath.com/bjmath/progress/prog.htm (Archive copy)
http://www.bjmath.com/bjmath/progress/unfair.htm (Archive copy)
http://www.bjmath.com/bjmath/progress/prog1.htm (Archive copy)
http://www.bjmath.com/bjmath/progress/prog2.htm (Archive copy)
http://www.bjmath.com/bjmath/progress/bootmm.htm (Archive copy)
http://www.blackjackforumonline.com/content/betting_systems_martingale_progression.htm
http://www.blackjackforumonline.com/content/betting_systems_cancellation_progression.htm
http://www.blackjackforumonline.com/content/One_Million_Roulette_Experts.htm
http://www.blackjackforumonline.com/content/nonrandom_shuffle_blackjack_systems.htm

think ill move onto texas holdem poker. lol. atleast that isnt restricted by the unevoidable house edge

Poker players still have to put up with the house rake. There is no way to avoid it.

-Sonny-

 

[Kaiser]

The scary thing about the Martingale is how often the bloody thing works. When my friend tought me how to play blackjack last year, he just tought me to do this, like it was just the thing to do if you were a good player. So we'd go out and play, and we'd almost always have a good night. A couple times in one session I remember losing $5, $10, $20, $40, $80, then winning the $160 bet. My bankroll was so small that the $160 loss would have ended my night, but we had this "we'll never lose SIX hands in a row!" mentality.

I finally convinced him a month ago how stupid this system was, and he's back to regular betting. Losing six or more hands in a row happens infrequently enough that some casual players can go out for a half dozen short sessions and make money, thinking that they'll never lose enough in a row for them to be wiped out.

The funny thing is, now that I'm betting like a sane person, I've had plenty of losing streaks of 6, 7, or 8 hands (or more!). I shake my head sometimes thinking how screwed I'd be if I were betting using that effing martingale.

Stay away from that idiocy!

 

[golfnut101]

good for you Kaiser; a wise move indeed !