Beware: Forum Virgin

nofoolin · Sep 18, 2008

"What it is?"

Thanks for having me as a new member here. Been reading a lot - lovin' every minute of it!

I have a family, and thanks to the blessing given me by my spouse, I am pursuing a part-time to maybe-possibly-later full-time career in blackjack. My initial goal is a simple $2K/mth take-home, and while I'd like to make much more, I don't have wild dreams of becoming a millionaire playing blackjack. I think $10K/mth would suffice in the coming years. Maybe I'm crazy. :yikes:

Lookin for some advice, more importantly consistent advice: I've ordered a total of 13 used books in the last 2 weeks, including Mill Doll BJ, BJFB, Prof BJ, Beat the Dealer, World's Greatest BJ Book, Uston on BJ, and others; but in doing some research, I've also come across and bought some books that want to de-bunk the card-counting "myth". I will read them all over the next couple weeks regardless, but I want to know what's really going on out there in BJ these days, if counting really (really?) works, etc. I have absolutely no problem studying my rear off to learn ANY strategy so long as it really works and is somewhat efficient. I am a numbers person, so I believe that I could learn and implement any system.

I've got BS down cold. That was the simplest thing ever to memorize and actually play out during a game. I've been playing again for a couple weeks now, just betting table minimums and playing BS. The games offered in my area of the Midwest are (1) Double-Deck (DD?), $15 Min, $500 or $1000 Max; (2) 6-Deck (6D?), $5/$10/$15 Min, $500 Max; (3) 21+3 - not interested. All games follow the same rules: dealer hits soft 17, double-on-anything, double-after-split, no surrender, BJ pays 3:2, insurance. The most I could lose in this venture and be OK is a meager $2K right now, but will naturally be increased with winnings.

Please help! I welcome the comments of anyone, especially you senior and executive members (ZG, your interview was awesome - it made me think of even more questions in planning my BJ path):

(1) What's the most effective but also efficient system to use? If that one proves to be too tough, what's a simpler alternative?
(2) What should my average, min, and max bets be assuming a total bankroll of 2 G's?
(3) What is a safe risk-of-ruin to assume?
(4) Other books to read?
(5) I've got a clean-cut appearance (nice jeans and polo shirt most of the time) and a professional, respectful demeanor - will this aid or hurt me in avoiding heat? Any suggestions?
(6) Is there anyone here making consistent money at BJ - right now? Theory is great, but is anyone proving that theory today?
(7) How soon should I expect to be able to start achieving my goal of $2K/mth? (I can go out virtually any night I want, and I have lots of time to study - it seems reasonable to me that I should be able to make $200-$300 per session, 7-10 times/month).

Thanks everybody for reading my short story, and I thank you all in advance for the big help you'll be!!

P.S. - What are tags?

SystemsTrader · Sep 18, 2008

Ok while I like your enthusiasm, I guess I will be the first to burst your bubble. Making an easy 2k a month is very difficult and almost impossible with a tiny bankroll of $2000, you are basically expecting a monthly return of 100%. Blackjack is a grind and the swings that go along with the wins and losses are huge and require a tough psyche to handle it. With your tiny bankroll your risk will be astronomical with backcounting alone you can expect to make maybe $4 or $5 an hour with a high risk of bankroll failure. Being realistic you would be better off getting a job at McDonalds if you are in this for the money. Blackjack is not easy money and takes a lot of dedication if you want to be successful at it. My suggestion is keep saving money until you have about 10k minimum but more preferably then maybe you can expect to make about about $20/hr but you won't be able to keep hitting the same casinos over and over again before they toss you out. So now travelling would have to be involved which creates a new problem with added expenses which eat heavily into your EV. Since you are buying all these books maybe invest in simulator like CVCX and run the numbers yourself to see if blackjack will be a worthwhile adventure for you or not.

Sonny · Sep 18, 2008

nofoolin said:

Start with something simple like HiLo or KO. They are easy to learn and very powerful compared to other systems.

nofoolin said:

Minimum = $0
Maximum ~ $20

nofoolin said:

There is no such thing. As long as your RoR is higher than 0% there is the possibility of losing it all. You will have to settle for relative safety.

The amount of risk you are willing to take is a personal decision. For example, a 5% RoR gives you a 1-in-20 chance of going broke. Are you comfortable with that? How about something closer to 1-in-100? Where do you feel comfortable? It’s up to you.

nofoolin said:

Get through the 13 you have first, then you’ll have a better idea of what direction you want to go after that.

nofoolin said:

It probably won’t affect you at all if your max bet is $20 and you’re only earning $5 per hour. The casino probably won’t even notice you.

nofoolin said:

Yes, there are lots of people. Most of them just use it as a hobby or to earn some supplemental income. It’s not something that most people can make a living from.

nofoolin said:

It could take you 6-12 months of practice before you are ready to go to a casino. It will take at least another 2-3 months of casino experience before you are ready to bet serious money on your skills. Use that time to learn as much as you can about the game and keep adding money to your bankroll. Read through the Frequently Asked Questions thread and the Free Counting Resources thread to get things started.

-Sonny-

EasyRhino · Sep 18, 2008

a) You don't know it yet, but you're being very, very greedy. "All you want is $2k a month" from playing a game? That's a minimum wage job.

b) Read the books you're getting. Especially add Blackjack Attack (Schlesinger) the pile. Then come back. It should give you a better idea of risk and expected winnings.

To give you a sneak preview, a $2k a month expecation would possibly require a $25,000 bankroll and 80 hours a month of play (backcounting, $250 max bet)... and there would still be significant risk of losing it all.

HarryKuntz · Sep 18, 2008

nofoolin said:

"What it is?"

Thanks for having me as a new member here. Been reading a lot - lovin' every minute of it!

I have a family, and thanks to the blessing given me by my spouse, I am pursuing a part-time to maybe-possibly-later full-time career in blackjack. My initial goal is a simple $2K/mth take-home, and while I'd like to make much more, I don't have wild dreams of becoming a millionaire playing blackjack. I think $10K/mth would suffice in the coming years. Maybe I'm crazy. :yikes:

Lookin for some advice, more importantly consistent advice: I've ordered a total of 13 used books in the last 2 weeks, including Mill Doll BJ, BJFB, Prof BJ, Beat the Dealer, World's Greatest BJ Book, Uston on BJ, and others; but in doing some research, I've also come across and bought some books that want to de-bunk the card-counting "myth". I will read them all over the next couple weeks regardless, but I want to know what's really going on out there in BJ these days, if counting really (really?) works, etc. I have absolutely no problem studying my rear off to learn ANY strategy so long as it really works and is somewhat efficient. I am a numbers person, so I believe that I could learn and implement any system.

I've got BS down cold. That was the simplest thing ever to memorize and actually play out during a game. I've been playing again for a couple weeks now, just betting table minimums and playing BS. The games offered in my area of the Midwest are (1) Double-Deck (DD?), $15 Min, $500 or $1000 Max; (2) 6-Deck (6D?), $5/$10/$15 Min, $500 Max; (3) 21+3 - not interested. All games follow the same rules: dealer hits soft 17, double-on-anything, double-after-split, no surrender, BJ pays 3:2, insurance. The most I could lose in this venture and be OK is a meager $2K right now, but will naturally be increased with winnings.

Please help! I welcome the comments of anyone, especially you senior and executive members (ZG, your interview was awesome - it made me think of even more questions in planning my BJ path):

(1) What's the most effective but also efficient system to use? If that one proves to be too tough, what's a simpler alternative?
(2) What should my average, min, and max bets be assuming a total bankroll of 2 G's?
(3) What is a safe risk-of-ruin to assume?
(4) Other books to read?
(5) I've got a clean-cut appearance (nice jeans and polo shirt most of the time) and a professional, respectful demeanor - will this aid or hurt me in avoiding heat? Any suggestions?
(6) Is there anyone here making consistent money at BJ - right now? Theory is great, but is anyone proving that theory today?
(7) How soon should I expect to be able to start achieving my goal of $2K/mth? (I can go out virtually any night I want, and I have lots of time to study - it seems reasonable to me that I should be able to make $200-$300 per session, 7-10 times/month).

Thanks everybody for reading my short story, and I thank you all in advance for the big help you'll be!!

P.S. - What are tags?

Oh dear, have you just watched 21?

EyeHeartHalves · Sep 18, 2008

Hey Newbie,

Your post is good. I think you are probably very smart. If you learned BS cold already, you probably "love the game" already. Believe it or not, that love for the game is the number one requirement for making it in blackjack. Major requirement Number Two--a tough mind like the previous poster said. You should realize right now that there will be MANY MONTHS (some may be consecutive) in which you lose a couple thousand dollars as a part-time player. In fact, my first full month as a full-time player, I lost a bundle! YOU MUST BE ABLE TO MENTALLY WEATHER SUCH FINANCIAL FIRE-STORMS. (And if you're married, your wife must have a strong mind as well.)

Maybe I should give you a little more clarification on "tough mind"? Have you ever gotten into a real fight and lost? Have you ever spent a night in jail? Have you ever worked for the military, spent time on an inner city street, worked on a farm or hunted down an animal that weighed more than 200 lbs.? These are very extreme examples of "tests" but what I'm really trying to ask you--ARE YOU STREET SMART? (DON'T ACTUALLY ANSWER THIS QUESTION IN THE THREAD--ANSWER IT TO YOURSELF AND YOUR WIFE IF NEED BE.)

Your major malfunction at this time may not be your mental readiness or your bankroll (financial readiness). Your major problem is your "expectations". As a part-time Red Chipper, my expectations were the same as your's. I ONLY WON $500 THAT YEAR!!! My expectations were wrong!!! Still, I wasn't convinced until I ran dozens of simulations with some expensive blackjack software.

Let's say you have $15,000 (which you don't) and you want to spread from 15 to $300 at 6D/h17 or $150 at DD/h17 with a RoR less than 5%. If you did, let's say your AIB is around $30 and you have a 1% edge. Let's also say that you get away with 2,000 hands per month (which I don't think you will). Just this math alone predicts about $600/month--salary--NOT $2K--AND THESE ARE NOT CONSERVATIVE STATISTICS! Come to grips with this example now or later.

"Does CC'g really work?" C'mon, I'm not going to answer that question. Why do you think I'm talking to you like this? Do you think I just want to bait $2,000 from your pockets and into the casinos' coffers? Do you think I want to see you lose money to casinos? Or, do you think I'd like to see you and many others viciously rape the casino industry?

I think we need to talk about your B/R some more. A "part-time player" would have what Arnold Snyder calls a "Replenishable Bankroll." If you only can start with $2K, you should have a replenishable bankroll. Meaning, you have a full-time/day job with enough salary to replenish your blackjack bankroll after losses. How much do you need? Well, even a part-time player should have less than a 5% Risk-of-Ruin (RoR). Without performing proper simulations, I'd guess that that's about 1,000 units. Now, for more clarification--what I call units is your smallest bet (which you would be making when you have a disadvantage). If you never-ever play at a disadvantage, you might be able to get away with 100 units? I wouldn't know. I've never been a "back-counter." So, now, we're talking about $15,000. You have $2K. Thus, you need to be able to replenish (both financially AND MENTALLY) $13,000 within about 12 months. Now, unless you and your wife make at least $52,000 per annum without kids, I doubt that a $15,000 replenishable bankroll is a realistic EXPECTATION.

After this analysis, I will suggest that you become a "back-counter" to begin with. I say this because I have a feeling that you're going to play blackjack no matter what we say and I want you to have the lowest RoR possible. If you don't care about risk, you should still probably become a back-counter if you only have $2,000. (The EV may be higher as well.) For me, that was not the case.

Other Issues:
(1) The "Tens Count" or "Insurance Count" is the most efficient for betting insurance only. Unbalanced/multi-parameter advanced point counts such as RevereAPC or UstonAPC are the most efficient for playing decisions. The Thorpe Ultimate Count (TUC) is the most efficient for bet sizing. The Insurance Count may also be the most efficient system available for the "Lucky Ladies" side-bet.
(2) This question is too vague. Plus, we already hinted at the complexity of this question.
(3) Less than or equal to 5% for the part-time player and less than or equal to 1% for the full-time player.
(4) Burning the Tables in LV by Ian Andersen; Blackjack Secrets by Stanford Wong; Bj. Attack (3rd ed.) by Don Schlesinger; Blackbelt in Bj. by Arnold Snyder; and about a dozen others as you travel along your path--you will decide which to buy and read.
(5) Keep reading.
(6) Yes, me and a few others on this site--some moreso and some less so.
(7) My "expected value" is still less than $2K/month and I've been playing for years. It's pretty close but not quite and very few months of my life ever were in excess of $2K-EV/month.

You're welcome.

PS: Tags are the values assigned to different cards via specific counting systems. When you hear about newbies practicing counting down a deck in less than 30 seconds, this is what they are practicing. They're trying to get the tag values of their mind on an almost subconscious level.

--Halves

cardcounter0 · Sep 18, 2008

another point -

You list the rules and conditions for the blackjack games in your area, but you are missing the most important point when it comes to counting and making money ---

How deeply do they deal into the deck before shuffling (ie - penetration)?

The following three things can overcome bad rules and bad games and still enable you to make a profit counting in blackjack:

1. Penetration
2. Penetration
3. Penetration

nofoolin · Sep 19, 2008

Wow, wow, and wow.

Gentleman,

Thanks for all your input! I said maybe I was crazy!! You are right though, EyeHeartHalves, I am going to play anyway!

EyeHeartHalves said:

BUT I will be as smart as I can be, get VERY good first, and NOT OVERBET MY BANKROLL - good idea?

Now, just a few more questions:

SystemsTrader said:

What is backcounting? Sorry to bore you all, but I haven't seen this term in any of the 3 books I've read yet.

Sonny said:

I feel very comfortable with a 5% RoR - even though Stanford Wong says counting cards is not gambling, it's still a gamble, eh? Am I willing to accept a normal risk? Hell YES. But I'm going to work my tail off to do whatever I can to prevent that from happening.

Sonny said:

Will they notice me winning $5/hour for 20 hours per month? That's 5 nights a month @ 4 hours per session. I'm hoping not. My plan is to spread my playing time around to the 4 area casinos, playing about 20 hours/month at each.

HarryKuntz said:

Yes, dear, my wife and I both watched it. But we watched it BECAUSE of our love for BJ - we didn't grow to love BJ from watching the movie. The glamour and power doesn't excite us. We love BJ, and want to make some money at it! (But I still truly appreciate your post dear - really).

EyeHeartHalves said:

What is AIB?

EyeHeartHalves said:

As demonstrated above, I think I will achieve well over 2,000 hands per month. At an average of 50 hands per hour, that only takes 40 hours per month, or 10 per week, or 2-3 sessions of play. I do get your whole point, though, I'm just saying that this will not be something I stick my toe in - I'm in baby!! With the help of all of you, I will at least be as smart as I possibly can with it!

EyeHeartHalves said:

I really appreciate that. I will not expect more, and I will not overbet my bankroll.

EyeHeartHalves said:

I do not have a replenishable bankroll (I do not make enough at my job the way it is). I have come to grips that I may REALLY lose my bankroll, and if I do, then I'll just have to be done playing BJ for a while, in this stage of my life anyway. Perhaps I can work some PT jobs (at McDonald's, perhaps?) to build my bankroll back up for the future.

EyeHeartHalves said:

I do not have the "Lucky Ladies" option in my area. What's the best (or best couple?) all-around count systems then, considering that I have a low BR but lots of time to study and play?

EyeHeartHalves said:

Thanks for the example. May I ask, what's your bankroll now, how many hours per month do you play, and what's your typical bet or bet range (is this called a "spread"?)?

cardcounter0 said:

I haven't paid much attention on the DD tables yet, but in the 6D games, it seems to be about 67% or perhaps a little more (It looks like they insert their little yellow card a little over 4 decks back. Of course, we could play 20 cards past that point if it comes out at the beginning of the hand.). I'll do some more research and focus on tables that offer better penetration.

I really appreciate all the quick responses guys. This information and reality check will prove just as valuable as the books I will have soon read.

Have a good'ne!

EasyRhino · Sep 19, 2008

And seriously, you're asking a lot of good questions, but I recommend hitting a book or two because they're betting at laying groundwork for such edjumacational things.

callipygian · Sep 19, 2008

Some of my responses are duplicates of previous posters, but you wanted consistent advice, so I'll reinforce for the sake of consensus.

nofoolin said:

Hi-Lo, Red 7, or KO. If any of those are too tough, I'd suggest not card counting.

It doesn't get any easier than those, and they're 90% as good as the best ones available (i.e. you don't get much more with increasing complexity).

nofoolin said:

Minimum = $0, Maximum = $20 or $25.

nofoolin said:

It's personal. It depends on how badly you want your $2,000 to grow vs. how much you can risk it all. If you're a serious card counter, you'll probably want something like 1% ROR.

As someone pointed out, 0% ROR is only possible if you do not bet.

nofoolin said:

There are a lot of variables that go into this calculation, so I'll try to show you how it's done and let you fill in the numbers.

1. The first calculation you'll need to do is what your bankroll will need to be to support $2,000/month.

1.1 How many hours will you be playing per month? Call it H (for hours); you'll need 2000/H dollars per hour on your venture.

1.2 How many hands can you play in an hour? This is dependent on the conditions, but 100-200 hands/hr is normal. We'll call hands per hour R (rate of play), and you'll need 2000/(H*R) dollars per hand.

1.3 What is your EV? Most good counters can achieve a +0.01 to +0.02 EV, which is units/hand. This will mean you need to win 2000/(H*R*EV) dollars per unit.

1.4 Now you need to find out how many units you will need. I outlined my bankroll estimation formula in this thread; nobody's commented on it positively or negatively so I don't know how accurate it is. There are other calculators available, but they're kind of black box, so you have to trust someone else's formula.

http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showthread.php?p=91617

1.4.1 What is your variance? Depending on your style of play, this will range between 2 and 3 units/hand. I'm going to call this m to be consistent with the thread.

1.4.2 You can estimate your bankroll with the formula B = (z*m)^2/(4*EV), where z is the number of deviations to get to your ROR. A 1% ROR (z = 2.3) or 0.1% ROR (z = 3.0) can be estimated from the chart.

All things considered, you'll need a bankroll of 2000/(H*R*EV)*(z*m)^2/(4*EV) dollars, where each of the variables should be plugged in to suit your realistic situation (avoid putting in fantasy scenarios, you're not kidding anyone except yourself).

This should come out to be somewhere between $10,000 (high hours per month, high hands/hr, cautious play, and higher ROR) and $20,000 (low hours per month, low hands/hr, aggressive play, and lower ROR).

2. Now that you know what bankroll you need, the next step is to figure out how long it will take you to get to that bankroll from where you are now. In other words, we're calculating how long it will take to earn 2000/(H*R*EV)*(z*m)^2/(4*EV) - 2000 dollars with your current strategy.

2.1 We'll assume the number of hours you put in is constant, or that H' = H, where X' is now the quantity that you'll need while building your bankroll to the $2000/month level.

2.2 R' is the rate at which you play hands while building your bankroll. If you're Wonging, which you probably have to, this is going to be lower than R (assuming you're not Wonging or Wonging less if you're playing more seriously).

2.3 EV' is the strength of your game on a meager bankroll. This will be closer to 0.01 than EV because you can't spread very much.

2.4 Your unit for a $2,000 bankroll will have to be $5, unless you want to accept a very large ROR.

Now, we get to finally calculate M, the number of months it will take to reach your target bankroll.

M*H'*R'*EV'*5 = 2000/(H*R*EV)*(z*m)^2/(4*EV) - 2000

or

M = [2000/(H*R*EV)*(z*m)^2/(4*EV) - 2000]/(H'*R'*EV'*5)

Knowing nothing else about you, I'm going to estimate your winrate at about $5-$10/hr, which means you'll be playing for 6 months to a year to build that sort of bankroll.

nofoolin · Sep 19, 2008

EasyRhino said:

You meant "they're better at laying groundwork...", right?

Speaking of books, I just ran downstairs and picked up my copy of Stanford Wong's Professional Blackjack. On page 78, he says this, "If you avoid the too-busy times of day and play two hands at once whenever the pack is favorable, my guess is that your expected win per hour is about 1.5 times your standard bet size."

The key word here, of course, is "guess". His guess seems to be way off what you guys are all telling me. Is Wong smoking crack? He includes a table that shows if my standard bet size was $25, my BR was $2500, and I played 16 hours, I should make $600. That's pert near $40/hour (now can you see why I may have been over-confident at the beginning?). Where does this breakdown? Is he just plain wrong?

Thanks again everyone!!

nofoolin · Sep 19, 2008

Sweetness

callipygian said:

Some of my responses are duplicates of previous posters, but you wanted consistent advice, so I'll reinforce for the sake of consensus.

Hi-Lo, Red 7, or KO. If any of those are too tough, I'd suggest not card counting.

It doesn't get any easier than those, and they're 90% as good as the best ones available (i.e. you don't get much more with increasing complexity).

Minimum = $0, Maximum = $20 or $25.

It's personal. It depends on how badly you want your $2,000 to grow vs. how much you can risk it all. If you're a serious card counter, you'll probably want something like 1% ROR.

As someone pointed out, 0% ROR is only possible if you do not bet.

There are a lot of variables that go into this calculation, so I'll try to show you how it's done and let you fill in the numbers.

1. The first calculation you'll need to do is what your bankroll will need to be to support $2,000/month.

1.1 How many hours will you be playing per month? Call it H (for hours); you'll need 2000/H dollars per hour on your venture.

1.2 How many hands can you play in an hour? This is dependent on the conditions, but 100-200 hands/hr is normal. We'll call hands per hour R (rate of play), and you'll need 2000/(H*R) dollars per hand.

1.3 What is your EV? Most good counters can achieve a +0.01 to +0.02 EV, which is units/hand. This will mean you need to win 2000/(H*R*EV) dollars per unit.

1.4 Now you need to find out how many units you will need. I outlined my bankroll estimation formula in this thread; nobody's commented on it positively or negatively so I don't know how accurate it is. There are other calculators available, but they're kind of black box, so you have to trust someone else's formula.

http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showthread.php?p=91617

1.4.1 What is your variance? Depending on your style of play, this will range between 2 and 3 units/hand. I'm going to call this m to be consistent with the thread.

1.4.2 You can estimate your bankroll with the formula B = (z*m)^2/(4*EV), where z is the number of deviations to get to your ROR. A 1% ROR (z = 2.3) or 0.1% ROR (z = 3.0) can be estimated from the chart.

All things considered, you'll need a bankroll of 2000/(H*R*EV)*(z*m)^2/(4*EV) dollars, where each of the variables should be plugged in to suit your realistic situation (avoid putting in fantasy scenarios, you're not kidding anyone except yourself).

This should come out to be somewhere between $10,000 (high hours per month, high hands/hr, cautious play, and higher ROR) and $20,000 (low hours per month, low hands/hr, aggressive play, and lower ROR).

2. Now that you know what bankroll you need, the next step is to figure out how long it will take you to get to that bankroll from where you are now. In other words, we're calculating how long it will take to earn 2000/(H*R*EV)*(z*m)^2/(4*EV) - 2000 dollars with your current strategy.

2.1 We'll assume the number of hours you put in is constant, or that H' = H, where X' is now the quantity that you'll need while building your bankroll to the $2000/month level.

2.2 R' is the rate at which you play hands while building your bankroll. If you're Wonging, which you probably have to, this is going to be lower than R (assuming you're not Wonging or Wonging less if you're playing more seriously).

2.3 EV' is the strength of your game on a meager bankroll. This will be closer to 0.01 than EV because you can't spread very much.

2.4 Your unit for a $2,000 bankroll will have to be $5, unless you want to accept a very large ROR.

Now, we get to finally calculate M, the number of months it will take to reach your target bankroll.

M*H'*R'*EV'*5 = 2000/(H*R*EV)*(z*m)^2/(4*EV) - 2000

or

M = [2000/(H*R*EV)*(z*m)^2/(4*EV) - 2000]/(H'*R'*EV'*5)

Knowing nothing else about you, I'm going to estimate your winrate at about $5-$10/hr, which means you'll be playing for 6 months to a year to build that sort of bankroll.

Wow, that's a lot of complex math. Although I couldn't reproduce what you just wrote, I do get your train of thought. What I get from this is that I could obtain the needed bankroll in 6-12 months, maybe sooner if I'm willing to accept a higher RoR. That is encouraging, to say the least. A slow game plan is better than no game plan.

And thanks for providing the consistent advice - that IS what I'm looking for - real-world, current stuff. The only thing I don't like about all these books I'm reading is that they're all almost thirty years old! A lot has changed, I reckon!

EyeHeartHalves · Sep 19, 2008

Yes,

Honestly, I think that most of your books are worth what you paid for them except PB. This book has stood the test of time and you will still find yourself "running into the other room at night" to check a particular reference in it, years from now. My copy has to be picked up very carefully or else all the pages will fall out of it, scattering on the floor.

He is however, a bit optimistic. He's not exactly "wrong."

"Back-counting" is another term for "wonging-in." "Wonging-out" is simply "wonging-out."

My first weekend as a proficient CC'r, I used Hi-Lo. I turned $300 into $3,600 in a single weekend. I got very lucky and cocky. That was the only time I ever used Hi-Lo. I then switched to Halves and have been using it for years now. By the way, I went on to lose $2,800 of that $3,600 that year. How does that sound, Crazy?

AIB meant average-initial-bet and is probably what Wong referred to as a "standard bet" and with some styles of play, is equivalent to twice your unit size. Also, within that narrow-minded style of play, unit size is equivalent to your smallest bet and equivalent to the table's minimum bet. This was the style that I adopted when I started out but I don't recommend it. (Also, my "AIB" was equal to my "Win-Rate".)

--Halves

EasyRhino · Sep 19, 2008

nofoolin said:

Wong's not wrong, there's just a misunderstanding.

"standard bet size" is also sometimes called a "unit". For beginner purposes, it's your minimum bet. A win rate or 1 or 2 units per hour is common. The max bet is a multiple of the unit. Let's say 10x, or $250.

And to suppot this, you're talking about a bankroll of $20k-$25k.

Depressing isn't it?

cardcounter0 · Sep 19, 2008

Yuck! That means it is break-even or not even beatable. You can forget all about Stanford Wong's optimal win rate. Or forget about playing all. Back counting would be the way to go.

So your first step would be to search and find the dealers that cut 1 1/2 to 1 deck off, instead of 2 decks. Second step would be to find the times that you can play heads-up versus crowded tables.

Blackjack is one of the hardest ways to make an easy $2000 a month.
:laugh:

callipygian · Sep 19, 2008

nofoolin said:

Dammit, you said you were a math guy.

nofoolin said:

Food for thought: a Las Vegas dealer earns in the ballpark of $40,000 to $100,000 a year, depending on what casino they deal for. For a normal 40-hour work week (I don't know what their schedules are), that works out to $20/hr to $50/hr. I'm pretty sure 99% of card counters would earn more money dealing than being dealt to.

If you want to maximize your money, you're probably better off picking up a second job tutoring SAT's or MCAT's or something. The only reason why you should build your bankroll with card counting is if you need the practice.

zengrifter · Sep 19, 2008

Welcome. Start here - Card Counting, The REAL Truth is... -VIDEO

Shwam · Sep 20, 2008

zengrifter said:

LOL.

10char.

jimpenn · Sep 20, 2008

NoFullin - Get a job real job.

It's my opinion that only 1% of people in this forum (most likely less) can make a living playing backjack. (Shoe Games) Too many bumps in the road attempting to find games with good rules. Forget about single, DD games because very rarely, if ever will you find them in your new local casinos. The expenses alone travelling to locations that have good DD games will far exceed your 1% advantage playing perfectly. I'm retired and financially secure with a replaceabe BR at will, but emotional and mental stress is now starting to take it's toll. In my local area two new casino's reported substantial losses this past quarter and both now are unplayable because of penetration. When they both started they were cutting 1 1/2 - 2 and now it's 2+. (8D games). In addition, both are approximaely 100 miles round trip requiring $20 in gas expense daily, not counting additional car maintence over annual necessities. In February 2008 I started keeping a legit log or wins/losses including expenses associated with playing. In February I started with a $10,000 BR playing a $10 unit. I enjoyed an inflated good run during the first three months increasing my BR too $14,000. Reality soon hit and it's been going down. Today my BR is $5,900 and I've lost control. I'm now steaming more often because I lost emotional control. In short I'm attempting to spin straw into gold losing pocket BR in mere minutes. Within the last week I lost control twice and won both times. First, last hand prior to leaving I sent table max of $500 one day, and played a $200 final hand hitting a blackjack ending with a win of $150 leaving both days with a win under $200. Too crazy for me the ups and downs. I'm off to Key West for the winter next month relaxing and drinking daily with the locals I've know for the past 10 years. In short, I don't believe shoe games can be beat to the point of even coming close to making a living with a $25,000 BR. Of course this is my opinion and could care less of what professsed "winner's" comments will be. You can't get there from here!

callipygian · Sep 20, 2008

jimpenn said:

I agree with the "making a living" part, but I think they can be beat, and they can be beat soundly.

You need Wonging, a high concentration of decent shoe games, and a good pair of walking shoes.

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