black jack - is it worth it?

[mr black]

Hi

i have recently been bit by the black jack bug, have been learning basic strategy and hi-lo count. my only worry is whether it's worth it.
after some research it seems to me that you have to have a huge bankroll (like $20,000), you have to be willing to risk it all, you have to play thousands of games before being relatvily sure of some kinda income and when all this is done you don't earn more than you would by taking some extra shifts at work.

so before i move on to more advanced strategies like shuffle tracking, sequensing and key card cut it would be nice to hear from some experienced players what to expect. For instanse what is an advanced players edge approximatly when mastering the previous mentioned methods?

I'm thinking about starting practising poker instead, it seems like a better business. The reason why I favor black jack is that there are less human variables present. You know how the dealer plays and you know with a given strategy you will win in the long run. Roulette also caught my attention but it seems unbeatable. the people who claim they have a way of visually predicting where the ball lands reeks of scamers.

hope to get some inputs
cheers

 

[Brutus]

personally, I play blackjack with spare time only.

 

[Brock Windsor]

My only concern with poker is the chance that cheating and collusion are common place. This would erode a great deal or all of your edge. A lot of the blogs and books on cheating nowadays talk about the various scams teams are using in poker live and online. I don't believe I've ever been cheated at blackjack, poker on the other hand I've been suspicious many times. Neither will yield much profit if you can't dig up a little bit of financing. Build your bankroll with those extra shifts at work.
BW

 

[sagefr0g]

i was initialy interested in card counting and maybe some other AP stuff as a way of supplementing my retirement income. thought it would be a fun and easy way to quickly make some money. alas the reality of the situation was different.
turned out i didn't have what it takes, couldn't stomach the fluctuation, not willing to risk enough for the possible gains, don't have the patience to count through what seems like endless negative advantage situations, don't have easy access to joints with 'better' games. stuff like that worked to make me decide foughgetaboutit. still got the blackjack bug though. still like foolin with it all though. still tryin and hopin to come out ahead of the curve.
it's kind of nice just knowing that with a little chump change on hand it's likely i might win enough most often to pick up on a Wendy's baked potatoe or two and still have the chump change in my pocket.

 

[GeorgeD]

Couldn't have said it better myself, Sage. I'm especially not willing at this point in my life to risk $10K or so even if played perfectly.

i was initialy interested in card counting and maybe some other AP stuff as a way of supplementing my retirement income. thought it would be a fun and easy way to quickly make some money. alas the reality of the situation was different.
turned out i didn't have what it takes, couldn't stomach the fluctuation, not willing to risk enough for the possible gains, don't have the patience to count through what seems like endless negative advantage situations, don't have easy access to joints with 'better' games. stuff like that worked to make me decide foughgetaboutit. still got the blackjack bug though. still like foolin with it all though. still tryin and hopin to come out ahead of the curve.
it's kind of nice just knowing that with a little chump change on hand it's likely i might win enough most often to pick up on a Wendy's baked potatoe or two and still have the chump change in my pocket.

 

[callipygian]

I'm thinking about starting practising poker instead, it seems like a better business.

If you're interested in gambling as a business, I suggest you go to dealer school and learn how to become a dealer. They make from $50,000-$100,000 per year with tips.

If you're not gambling for fun with money you can easily save/accumulate, you probably shouldn't be gambling at all. The pros on the board can correct me if I'm wrong, but usually what happens is that people start off with a small bankroll and small stakes, and become professionals AFTER they grow their bankroll and realize they can make more money gambling than they can at a regular job.

 

[mr black]

hey, thanks for the responses.

I'll start by saying that i'm not in it to become a pro. just to make some extra money on the side (and i hate everything casinos stand for so dealer school is not even an option for me )

but I must admit I am in it for the money too so I would hate sitting 12 hours several days in a row collecting chips to finance the bus ticket home. so i guess my question is what's it gonna take to win an amount of money that makes casino trips make some kind of financial sense?

 

[matt21]

hey, thanks for the responses.

I'll start by saying that i'm not in it to become a pro. just to make some extra money on the side (and i hate everything casinos stand for so dealer school is not even an option for me )

but I must admit I am in it for the money too so I would hate sitting 12 hours several days in a row collecting chips to finance the bus ticket home. so i guess my question is what's it gonna take to win an amount of money that makes casino trips make some kind of financial sense?

hi mr black,

you are probably not going to like what i am going to say:

from what i understand so far it is not realistic to expect to make some "extra money on the side" by playing AP blackjack. Only in the long run (stating it really really simple: several hundred to thousands of playing hours is where long run starts to happen) can a card counter expect to make money with some degree of certainty. And to survive for the long run you will need a decent size bank roll, let's say 1,000 units of your minimum bet so if you have a $5-$60 spread then you need a bankroll of $5,000. However with $5 minimum bets you should not expect to make more than $5-$7.50 per hour IN THE LONG RUN in GOOD PLAYING CONDITIONS and only IF YOU PLAY WELL.

It will be possible for you to make a lot more money in the short run (I made just under $5,000 early on) but you could equally lose a lot initially - this is basically positive or negative variance from the expected return - or you could call it 'luck' or 'bad luck'.

If you want to make $20 per hour then you would need to play with $20 min bets and will require a $20,000 bankroll and so on.

You should look at black-jack as a business opportunity (and unfortunately a very time consuming one). But it would be hard work.
You should not look at card-counting as a way to make some extra money on the side due to the fluctuations that you would encounter.

I have only been counting for about 8 months and have a lot less experience and knowledge that many many posters on this forum so they may well pick holes into what i said above

Hope that helps

 

[ChefJJ]

It's great as a profitable hobby.

 

[BJinNJ]

Look to the Long Run

In Carlson's "Blackjack for Blood" Dr. J grew a small BR to $250K
counting every other weekend for about 5 yrs. Not sure if today's
conditions are as good, but perseverance allows the small edge
for a counter to rise above the short term +/- variance. Dr. J.
played for his retirement, a worthy goal.

Naturally Dr. J. played very conservatively to start, since his BR
was modest. Once his BR grew to allow increasing his unit bet
he did so, without increasing his 'risk of ruin'. Dr. Js story and
basic win record (~130 weekend sessions) are in Carlson's book.

It can be done, but you must make an effort over a long period
of time. (but not forever it seems)

BJinNJ

 

[jay28]

If you want to make money out of blackjack you need to learn and develop many techniques as well as card counting. CC is just one tool in the box for a AP. Just to be successful at counting you need to have BS, RC, TC converstions, indices, pet ramps, ROR, BR management etc. down stone cold and your not going to learn these things overnight.

Unfortunately, to be sucessful and pull large profits, you need to be committed to blackjack to the point of obsession, spending as much time as possible learning and practising. You need to be able to spot weaknesses in games and be comitted to figuring ways to exploit them, being able to adapt current advance techniques to suit or developing new or other techniques which you won't find written about.

Blackjack is a beatable game but to do it well requires a lot of hard work and commitment, its is a real challenge,

If this doesn't sound like you or you can't commit, than your never gonna make much, This is not easy money. :bomb:

 

[EmeraldCityBJ]

To make money at the game, you need to be willing to put a significant chunk of change at risk. With the $20k bank and a 2% risk of ruin, you can probably find games where you can achieve an expected win rate in the $30-50 per hour ballpark with card counting alone. Of course, you have to put in hundreds and thousands of hours before these numbers will average out. It's really a personal decision you need to make to decide whether or your expected win rate is worth the risk and the time necessary.

I would not suggest even thinking about shuffle tracking or other advanced techniques until you have card counting down cold. Card counting alone when done properly is sufficient to get the money, but implementing any system poorly can and likely will make you a net loser over time.

There are a few other ways you might be able to improve your win rate or build your bankroll. Look for promotions which can be exploited. Networking with other APs in your area, reviewing advertisements in local gambling publications, and pounding the pavement and visiting casinos yourself are the best way to learn about these opportunities.

You mention that you're also considering Poker. Again, this is really personal preference. I played poker for a few years, and got good enough to play close to a break even game. I still enjoy playing poker once in awhile, but recognize that my poker skill is not nearly good enough for me to make even close to what I can expect to make playing blackjack on the same bankroll. No matter which game you choose, you're going to need to put a lot of time into it to become skilled enough to ensure long term success. I'd suggest choosing the game you enjoy playing the most.

 

[GeorgeD]

You're getting some great advice here, and as you can see it can be a real challenge to make $20 and hour. Consider that's BESIDES practice time. Also consider if you have to take trip expenses out of your winnings (be that gas, buss ticket, hotels etc), that lowers your earnings.

It's like any business ..... I used to wonder how computer consultants had the nerve charging $75 - $150 an hour until I did a few gigs charging $25/hr and found there were so many un-billable hours and added expenses that it was COSTING me money at that rate.

but I must admit I am in it for the money too so I would hate sitting 12 hours several days in a row collecting chips to finance the bus ticket home. so i guess my question is what's it gonna take to win an amount of money that makes casino trips make some kind of financial sense?

 

[jimpenn]

I can't make any substantial money playing blackjack

I agree with SafeFrog. Considering the fluctuations (risk/gains) not worth the time and patience, travel costs, etc., to earn $20 per hour when considering today's rules. I play for the entertainment similar to going to a sporting event. Forget about making any money on a regular basis playing blackjack.

 

[aslan]

In the case of BJ, it takes money to make money. The same work goes into making a $1,000 win as a $10,000 win. But if you have the kind of money that allows yourt bankroll to be, say, $100,000, you possibly won't think a $10,000 win is worth the grind, the ups and downs, and all the aggravation. It's all relative. My biggest problem is sticking to the rules, if you can call them that, of successful AP play. I always want to play a $25 minimum game with a $5 minimum game bankroll! LOL If you can find a job you love you're about a $1,000,000 ahead to start with. LOL I guess it's the maverick in me that wants to make money the hard way. Believe me, if you're a winning BJ player, you've earned every penny's worth of it! "Love it or leave it" is an appropriate expression IMHO. If you love it, you're ahead of the game even when it's not going your way. If you don't love it, the long run gets even longer, and may persuade you to do something you'll regret. LOL

 

[Jeff Dubya]

i hate everything casinos stand for...

Sounds like you probably shouldn't be gambling.

 

[Jeff Dubya]

Since I am not a CC/AP yet (but working on it) I can admit to being extraordinarily LUCKY. I generally go to vegas with a few thousand in my pocket, make enough to cover all of my expenses and bring home my original roll with at least $1000 or $2000 in my pocket. Granted, while I am there I am not a high roller, but I have a damn good time and get to relax from life a bit.

Considering I get to Vegas for free on FF miles I accumulate through business, a week of PROFITABLE vacation is a blast for me. Makes me feel like I accomplished something.

I have taken on BJ as a personal mental challenge. If becoming a solid AP makes me a few more dollars, great. However, the reward to investment ratio is probably poor. I send a LOT of time drilling, reading, and thinking about the game. Hell I named my dog blackjack.

But if it were really easy to make a living playing BJ, everyone would do it. I like to joke about moving to vegas and gambling professionally, but it's a pipe dream. I'm 39 now with two kids. I figure by the time they are in college I will have something to do that I should be very good at. That will be good timing, because I plan on having some extra time on my hands.

 

[nismo]

Since I am not a CC/AP yet (but working on it) I can admit to being extraordinarily LUCKY. I generally go to vegas with a few thousand in my pocket, make enough to cover all of my expenses and bring home my original roll with at least $1000 or $2000 in my pocket. Granted, while I am there I am not a high roller, but I have a damn good time and get to relax from life a bit.

Considering I get to Vegas for free on FF miles I accumulate through business, a week of PROFITABLE vacation is a blast for me. Makes me feel like I accomplished something.

I have taken on BJ as a personal mental challenge. If becoming a solid AP makes me a few more dollars, great. However, the reward to investment ratio is probably poor. I send a LOT of time drilling, reading, and thinking about the game. Hell I named my dog blackjack.

But if it were really easy to make a living playing BJ, everyone would do it. I like to joke about moving to vegas and gambling professionally, but it's a pipe dream. I'm 39 now with two kids. I figure by the time they are in college I will have something to do that I should be very good at. That will be good timing, because I plan on having some extra time on my hands.

seems like we've met before...

 

[N&B]

Agreed with the Chef... its a hobby, and a little profitable over the years. As a business? ... NFW.

 

[Kasi]

Another thing to maybe look into, especially with smaller rolls or not playing that often or goals of x dollars, is the chances of winning so much, with or without specifying time or winning so much before I lose so much.

I mean alot of the time you may have a 1 in 4 chance of turning 20 units into 400 kind of thing if the risk is worth it to you for smaller amounts that you actually really don't care if you lose it all.

Like The Wise One I think could have sat down with $2500 in WWI, played to a $100K roll he didn't have and I think won like $17K in 1000 hands or so - I don't think he ever would ahve lost his $2500 buy in.

In other words, even with extremely high lifetime ROR's, winning a certain amount may be more likely than you think. So if you want to play to a 95%+ lifetime ROR but still know you have say a 50-50 or more chance of doubling your roll before losing it, and that's your goal, go for it if you want and ahve fun doing it since you don't really care that much about the roll in the first place.

Like if Aslan wants to play with a lifetime roll of $500 in WWII, change his unit to $25, with a roll that wouldn't normally be viewed that great for a $1 game, let alone $5 lol, play with an ROR of 94% but be willing to accept being a favorite to double his roll to $1K, why not lol. Adjust from there with your $1000 if you want. Try again later if you fail with another $500 if you want lol.