Black Jack Player wins 15 Million.
- Thread starter vipmn
- Start date
some math
assumes basic strategy and non dependent events, but still nice to have math
http://kiddynamitesworld.com/intuitive-probabilities-blackjack-and-loss-rebates/
assumes basic strategy and non dependent events, but still nice to have math
http://kiddynamitesworld.com/intuitive-probabilities-blackjack-and-loss-rebates/
Dj
I have been doing some research on this gent, Don Johnson, to try and contact him to see if he would do a chat and I am beginning to come to a conclusion, not completely formed, that there is far more to this story than meets the eye, and more to DJ than what has been reported.
I will keep digging.
CP
I have been doing some research on this gent, Don Johnson, to try and contact him to see if he would do a chat and I am beginning to come to a conclusion, not completely formed, that there is far more to this story than meets the eye, and more to DJ than what has been reported.
I will keep digging.
CP
I agree. He oversimplifies everything way too much.
He uses a standard deviation of 1 unit. Which makes the rebate much worse. The higher the stdev the better the rebate is. We know stdev is higher than 1 unit per round.
He also assumes that your win rate per round is what your advantage is. This is not true. You lose more hands than you win.
To get an accurate answer you have to find the probability of results at various points and find your expectation at each point. To find the probability of a result you can use the normsdist function in excel. What I did was find my expectation at each point from 15mm to -15mm in 10k increments. For any point less than 0 your expectation = result *0.8. You sum up the expectation at all points and then you get your total expectation.
So if we assume the following:
Rounds per Hour 60
Hours 12
Unit 100,000
Stdev per Round 1.5
Edge -0.41% (6D S17 DAS)
Rebate % 20.00%
I get the following results:
Expectation 52,357
Total Bet 72,000,000
Edge 0.07%
Now he possibly could get the casinos to offer him LS and/or RSA to reduce the house advantage. He may also be playing less than 12 hours (eating, bathroom breaks, etc). Throw in some index plays and maybe a 1-2 spread and he could work up a mediocre advantage.
He uses a standard deviation of 1 unit. Which makes the rebate much worse. The higher the stdev the better the rebate is. We know stdev is higher than 1 unit per round.
He also assumes that your win rate per round is what your advantage is. This is not true. You lose more hands than you win.
To get an accurate answer you have to find the probability of results at various points and find your expectation at each point. To find the probability of a result you can use the normsdist function in excel. What I did was find my expectation at each point from 15mm to -15mm in 10k increments. For any point less than 0 your expectation = result *0.8. You sum up the expectation at all points and then you get your total expectation.
So if we assume the following:
Rounds per Hour 60
Hours 12
Unit 100,000
Stdev per Round 1.5
Edge -0.41% (6D S17 DAS)
Rebate % 20.00%
I get the following results:
Expectation 52,357
Total Bet 72,000,000
Edge 0.07%
Now he possibly could get the casinos to offer him LS and/or RSA to reduce the house advantage. He may also be playing less than 12 hours (eating, bathroom breaks, etc). Throw in some index plays and maybe a 1-2 spread and he could work up a mediocre advantage.
& another won.......
2 gamblers take NJ casino for more than $11M
ATLANTIC CITY, N.J. – Lightning has struck twice at the Tropicana Casino and Resort, which has lost more than $11 million to just two high-stakes gamblers since April.
Just weeks after a blackjack player beat the casino for $5.8 million, a different gambler won $5.3 million last week.............
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/us_casino_high_roller (Archive copy)
........
2 gamblers take NJ casino for more than $11M
ATLANTIC CITY, N.J. – Lightning has struck twice at the Tropicana Casino and Resort, which has lost more than $11 million to just two high-stakes gamblers since April.
Just weeks after a blackjack player beat the casino for $5.8 million, a different gambler won $5.3 million last week.............
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/us_casino_high_roller (Archive copy)
........
The guys who loses 10-20 million isn't going to report it to anybody (he'd feel pretty stupid) and the casino is going to keep it as quiet as possible. You wonder about all the big losers the casino is keeping hush about.
Another question i've been pondering: What kind of heat would a spread of $100 to $20,000 draw?
If this is article is to be believed, Mr Johnson had a little celebration:
http://nypost.com/2011/06/28/card-king-is-deck-adent/
http://nypost.com/2011/06/28/card-king-is-deck-adent/