Blackjack Attack Calculation

[Finn Dog]

Greetings,

Can somebody help me please with a calculation from Blackjack Attack,3rd Edition (p. 445 Table A52)?

I'm trying to customize my own "Ultimate Gambit" and in Burning The Tables In Las Vegas, Stanford Wong does some calculations for Ian Andersen showing the cost of various cover plays on page 89. (These calculations are done on standard Las Vegas 6D strip rules based on $100 bets at 100 hands per hour. The win rate is $207 per hour with a SD of $5,586 and a % return of 0.62.)

An example of one of the misplays (from p. 89 of Burning The Tables) is always standing on a 12 vs. 3: it shows the cost of this misplay to be $1.50 per hour.

How do I make this calculation to come up with $1.50 (from Table A52 on p.445 of BJA--or do I not even have the right table)?

If it helps, here's the information from the table:

Hand: 7,5 - 6D S17 Dealer's Upcard 3
Stand: -0246082
Hit: -0.231898
Double: -0.463795
Freq: 0.00091915
Cum Freq: 0.00639576
BS: H

Thanks in advance.

Best regards,

FD

 

[A.L.F.]

Greetings,

Can somebody help me please with a calculation from Blackjack Attack,3rd Edition (p. 445 Table A52)?

I'm trying to customize my own "Ultimate Gambit" and in Burning The Tables In Las Vegas, Stanford Wong does some calculations for Ian Andersen showing the cost of various cover plays on page 89. (These calculations are done on standard Las Vegas 6D strip rules based on $100 bets at 100 hands per hour. The win rate is $207 per hour with a SD of $5,586 and a % return of 0.62.)

An example of one of the misplays (from p. 89 of Burning The Tables) is always standing on a 12 vs. 3: it shows the cost of this misplay to be $1.50 per hour.

How do I make this calculation to come up with $1.50 (from Table A52 on p.445 of BJA--or do I not even have the right table)?

If it helps, here's the information from the table:

Hand: 7,5 - 6D S17 Dealer's Upcard 3
Stand: -0246082
Hit: -0.231898
Double: -0.463795
Freq: 0.00091915
Cum Freq: 0.00639576
BS: H

Thanks in advance.

Best regards,

FD

I'd be interested in this, too. If you can't get an answer here, you might try joining Stanford Wong's Green Chip--board because if I'm not mistaken, Don Schlesinger posts there.

A.L.F.

 

[KenSmith]

Hand: 7,5 - 6D S17 Dealer's Upcard 3
Stand: -0246082
Hit: -0.231898
Double: -0.463795
Freq: 0.00091915
Cum Freq: 0.00639576
BS: H

Cost of misplaying = (Hit - Stand) * Freq * $100 * 100 Hands/hr
I get $0.13037 as the cost of misplaying (7,5)vs3 for an hour.

To get the generic 12v3, you can't just use the CumFreq, because the cost varies by composition. Misplaying T2v3 is almost twice as costly as misplaying 75v3.

To get the total cost, you need to do this calculation for each composition and add them. Doing that I get a cost of $1.26.

 

[Finn Dog]

Thanks for the help Ken--can you tell me please how I actually make the calculation you just made...what program do I use?

Best regards,

FD

 

[Mimosine]

Thanks for the help Ken--can you tell me please how I actually make the calculation you just made...what program do I use?

Best regards,

FD

all you need is a calculator. Ken gave you the formula. You will need to figure out the Frequencies. I can't remember if they are in BJAII or not. i have a copy right here but am too lazy to open it.

Cost of misplaying = (Hit - Stand) * Freq * $100 * 100 Hands/hr

for a hand where you want to Stand instead of Double, BJAII has all the info you could possibly want. The thing is you want to use plays that COST little AND Occur INFREQUENTLY.

 

[Kasi]

To get the total cost, you need to do this calculation for each composition and add them. Doing that I get a cost of $1.26.

I've never completely understood this either.

How would you account for the difference of Ian Anderson's $1.50 vs your $1.26?

Is it maybe because Ian may be assuming any total of 12 (like 6,2,4) in his frequencies but Don's table's are only for the specific 2-card hands?

The OP only asked about "12 vs 3" possibly maybe including more than just the 7,5, 8,4 or T,2 hands?

Or maybe Ian assumes only "playable hands" in his frequencies?

Why does Don get $1.50 on page 98 for 12 vs 3? Maybe a different game - too lazy to look up the assumptions behind that table?

If it was 12 vs 7 or more, would you also have to add the 6,6 frequencies in?

I don't think Don's tables really include "total-dependent" frequencies, just the Comp-dependent freq's listed?

What do you think so I know what to think :grin:?

 

[QFIT]

None of the calculations are correct for a card-counter. Only a basic strategy player. But, why would a BS strategy player make such plays?

 

[Finn Dog]

None of the calculations are correct for a card-counter. Only a basic strategy player. But, why would a BS strategy player make such plays?

Norm,

As I'm sure you're aware, I got this info from page 89 of Burning The Tables (either edition). Since IA wasn't computer-savvy, he called in Stanford Wong to run his numbers using the tables from BJA. Wong claimed the total cost of all the Ultimate Gambit plays added up to $13.25 per hour per $100 unit.

Am I hearing you right that there's an inherent flaw in these calculations? (I wonder if he made any kind of adjustment for a card-counter?)

Best regards,

FD

 

[QFIT]

Norm,

As I'm sure you're aware, I got this info from page 89 of Burning The Tables (either edition). Since IA wasn't computer-savvy, he called in Stanford Wong to run his numbers using the tables from BJA. Wong claimed the total cost of all the Ultimate Gambit plays added up to $13.25 per hour per $100 unit.

Am I hearing you right that there's an inherent flaw in these calculations? (I wonder if he made any kind of adjustment for a card-counter?)

Best regards,

FD

Lot's of calculations are made assuming BS to avoid the large number of variables when card counting is used. Problem with counting is there are many answers depending on circumstances. I did some sims at http://www.blackjackincolor.com/cardcountingcover5.htm. But again, this is just one set of circumstances.

 

[Finn Dog]

Blackjackincolor Table

Norm,

Regarding your table and its vertical score column: what "score" do those numbers represent? That is, how do we use them in relation to Wong's Win Rate, Standard Deviation, and Percent Return on page 105?

Thank you,

FD

 

[QFIT]

SCORE is win rate assuming optimal betting, a $10,000 bankroll and a 13.53% risk of ruin. It is designed to reduce the variables and make comparisons on an equal basis. Of course it doesn't rid us of all variables.

 

[KenSmith]

How would you account for the difference of Ian Anderson's $1.50 vs your $1.26?

Is it maybe because Ian may be assuming any total of 12 (like 6,2,4) in his frequencies but Don's table's are only for the specific 2-card hands?

The OP only asked about "12 vs 3" possibly maybe including more than just the 7,5, 8,4 or T,2 hands?

Or maybe Ian assumes only "playable hands" in his frequencies?

Why does Don get $1.50 on page 98 for 12 vs 3? Maybe a different game - too lazy to look up the assumptions behind that table?

If it was 12 vs 7 or more, would you also have to add the 6,6 frequencies in?

The difference is likely the fact that I ignored the (6,6) version. I suspect that adding it in will come to $1.50. If not, then we must need all the 3+ card 12s in there as well. :grin:

 

[Kasi]

The difference is likely the fact that I ignored the (6,6) version. I suspect that adding it in will come to $1.50. If not, then we must need all the 3+ card 12s in there as well. :grin:

Thanks for even responding to such a meaningless question lol.

I guess I maybe thought there would be no need to include the freq of 6,6 vs 3 in the original 12 vs 3 question but maybe you would ahve to if it was 12 vs 7 or more lol.

So I guess I thought maybe that difference for 12 vs 3 was actually due to the added freq of multiple-card 12's vs 3.

Trust me, I have no idea and could care less since in the near future I don't plan on misplaying every 12 vs 3 I get for some camo purpose.

This would mean delaying my extra free drink several hours lmao.

On another subject, what combinatorial program did you use in developing the W/L/T %'s for your doubling down tables? Was it self-made or canned?
What are the chances I could duplicate them using Excel?

Whatever you used to develop that, couldn't you use it for this 12 vs 3 cr*p? lmao?

 

[KenSmith]

On another subject, what combinatorial program did you use in developing the W/L/T %'s for your doubling down tables? Was it self-made or canned?
What are the chances I could duplicate them using Excel?

Whatever you used to develop that, couldn't you use it for this 12 vs 3 cr*p? lmao?

Self made, and yes much of the same code could easily answer these kinds of questions. For me, it usually comes down to how much time will it take to find the right program and make sure it is appropriate for the question at hand. When a trustworthy published source is available, it is often quicker for me to use it instead of my own work.

Of course, much more often than not, there's no published source for these kinds of questions. I have a large toolbox of CA code that I wrote myself, as well as some excellent tools provided to me by others.

Could you duplicate this type of answer in Excel? Yes, especially if you mean just the two card versions. The multiple card stuff gets a lot tougher, but even that is possible with an elaborate spreadsheet. I've done a fair amount of CA in spreadsheets, even though it is not a tool particularly well suited to the task. Quick it is, but easy not always.

 

[zengrifter]

Greetings,

Can somebody help me please with a calculation from Blackjack Attack,3rd Edition (p. 445 Table A52)?

I'm trying to customize my own "Ultimate Gambit" and in Burning The Tables In Las Vegas, Stanford Wong does some calculations for Ian Andersen showing the cost of various cover plays on page 89. (These calculations are done on standard Las Vegas 6D strip rules based on $100 bets at 100 hands per hour. The win rate is $207 per hour with a SD of $5,586 and a % return of 0.62.)

An example of one of the misplays (from p. 89 of Burning The Tables) is always standing on a 12 vs. 3: it shows the cost of this misplay to be $1.50 per hour.

How do I make this calculation to come up with $1.50 (from Table A52 on p.445 of BJA--or do I not even have the right table)?

If it helps, here's the information from the table:

Hand: 7,5 - 6D S17 Dealer's Upcard 3
Stand: -0246082
Hit: -0.231898
Double: -0.463795
Freq: 0.00091915
Cum Freq: 0.00639576
BS: H

Thanks in advance.

Best regards,

FD

Using anything remotely similar to IAUG is NOT ADVISED. zg

 

[johndoe]

Using anything remotely similar to IAUG is NOT ADVISED. zg

Why not? It seemed pretty well reasoned to me, and the costs are small for black chip players. There's another gambit for greenies that seemed reasonable too.