blackjack machines
- Thread starter rebel
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From my point of view in a mathematical sort of way you're obviously not getting the full benefit of a count unless you know the number of decks and are 'in sync' with the shuffle.
If you're counting to 208 and he's e.g. shuffling (unknowingly to you) when you're on 104 cards you're only getting half the advantage you think you are. If he shuffles on 52 cards the first part of your count will be void but the last 75% will be more realistic and vice versa if he shuffles on 156 cards your count to that point will be pretty accurate but the danger is you're positive, he shuffles, you bet your house and he cleans you out.
Therefore because your count doesn't correlate exactly to the probability of the next two cards the advantage of counting is lost.
In statistics there'd be some sort of curve to illustrate the peak accuracy (i.e in sync with the shoe, knowing the no. of decks and penetration) and the worst accuracy and they'd be 50% out of sync with each other.
In short you'd still still be playing against a significant house edge even though you might be able to enjoy short winning streaks.
If you're counting to 208 and he's e.g. shuffling (unknowingly to you) when you're on 104 cards you're only getting half the advantage you think you are. If he shuffles on 52 cards the first part of your count will be void but the last 75% will be more realistic and vice versa if he shuffles on 156 cards your count to that point will be pretty accurate but the danger is you're positive, he shuffles, you bet your house and he cleans you out.
Therefore because your count doesn't correlate exactly to the probability of the next two cards the advantage of counting is lost.
In statistics there'd be some sort of curve to illustrate the peak accuracy (i.e in sync with the shoe, knowing the no. of decks and penetration) and the worst accuracy and they'd be 50% out of sync with each other.
In short you'd still still be playing against a significant house edge even though you might be able to enjoy short winning streaks.
67% pen for 6D sucks even under the best of conditions.
Consider this: You reset your count to zero. Unbeknownst to you, the machine has shuffled a few hands ago. The count then gets high enough for your max bet, and you see you still have a few hands left to play. In reality, your max bets will be made at the beginning of the new shoe. If this scenario doesn’t bother you, then by all means go for it!
Consider this: You reset your count to zero. Unbeknownst to you, the machine has shuffled a few hands ago. The count then gets high enough for your max bet, and you see you still have a few hands left to play. In reality, your max bets will be made at the beginning of the new shoe. If this scenario doesn’t bother you, then by all means go for it!
Exactly! - If the machine shuffles every 208 cards then there's no way you can count to 208 or you could end up being 50% out of sync with the shuffle.
Assuming there's a fairly even spread of cards throughout the deck after a shuffle IMHO some advantage could be gained in short runs but as you have no way of knowing when the next shuffle is coming, a positive count could be obtained from the end of one shoe into the start of the next which might not continue into the shoe once the 'top' has been played.
By that time it could be too late as you cleaned yourself out with a max bex you'll never recover from
Assuming there's a fairly even spread of cards throughout the deck after a shuffle IMHO some advantage could be gained in short runs but as you have no way of knowing when the next shuffle is coming, a positive count could be obtained from the end of one shoe into the start of the next which might not continue into the shoe once the 'top' has been played.
By that time it could be too late as you cleaned yourself out with a max bex you'll never recover from
If I can enter at any time with RC 0, bet and play according to the next 208 cards I see with the same overall 312 cards, after all, seemingly, perhaps, that that is no different than anyone who has played since the machine was first turned on who also would have played and bet to 208 seen cards out of 312 total cards.
So, if so, like you say, the overall average advantage is easily calculated given how much you decide to bet and when. After all, wouldn't we both (the machine and me) be experiencing the same frequency of true counts, the same adv at each TC with the same variance at each TC since we are both playing the same game that we each see 208 cards dealt out of every 312?
If so, any advantage gained would neither be inaccurate or diluted. It would be the same as if one had chosen to play the game in whatever particular way since the day the machine was first turned on and you knew the first card you saw was the first card ever dealt and also knew that the machine re-shuffled after every 208 cards even if you couldn't tell by looking at it. That part is the act of faith here. But that is what the manufacturer of the machine says.
If so, if such a machine existed, maybe it does, maybe it doesn't, but, if it did, couldn't it be absolutely clobbered to KINGDOM COME?
So, if so, like you say, the overall average advantage is easily calculated given how much you decide to bet and when. After all, wouldn't we both (the machine and me) be experiencing the same frequency of true counts, the same adv at each TC with the same variance at each TC since we are both playing the same game that we each see 208 cards dealt out of every 312?
If so, any advantage gained would neither be inaccurate or diluted. It would be the same as if one had chosen to play the game in whatever particular way since the day the machine was first turned on and you knew the first card you saw was the first card ever dealt and also knew that the machine re-shuffled after every 208 cards even if you couldn't tell by looking at it. That part is the act of faith here. But that is what the manufacturer of the machine says.
If so, if such a machine existed, maybe it does, maybe it doesn't, but, if it did, couldn't it be absolutely clobbered to KINGDOM COME?
I don't think it's as simple as that because if your count isn't started on the first hand after a shuffle then your count whilst sequential is irrelevant - if the shuffle takes place after 30 cards then your total (postive or negative) to that point is void. If it take places after 178 cards, you'll be confident in your count which has again been rendered void by the shuffle.
IMHO the only way to beat the machine woudl be to know when the shuffle takes - what you need to do without the dealer spotting you is 'mark' the first 156 cards you see and then count how many cards are dealt before they start coming around again - as soon as you see one you know the shuffle has happened (recently) and your count will mean a bit more
I'm off to a stationers to buy a big marker pen - where shall I post it?
IMHO the only way to beat the machine woudl be to know when the shuffle takes - what you need to do without the dealer spotting you is 'mark' the first 156 cards you see and then count how many cards are dealt before they start coming around again - as soon as you see one you know the shuffle has happened (recently) and your count will mean a bit more
I'm off to a stationers to buy a big marker pen - where shall I post it?