ukdave said:
spx
thanks for the feedback. Similar experience to myself on this. There is ultimately little point in simulations, the cold hard cash in the casino is the only true acid test.
Good luck
ukdave
In a sense, I definitely agree with you. I don't know that I would say simulations are ultimately worthless, but despite the fact that everyone here will tell you there's no reason to do so, I continue to harbor doubts that a computer's randomly generated numbers are exactly comparable to actual hand-dealt physical cards.
I wish that just once someone, or perhaps a group of someones working in a team, would go through the trouble of hand-dealing a million hands and recording the results. That would be an invaluable resource.
As is stands, regardless of having a mathematical edge, what's important is that you have whatever edge is necessary to walk away ahead on that night. When you discredit non-counting systems out of hand, in a way you are completely disregarding the experience of the author. You are saying they are either a) exceedingly lucky, or b) a liar.
I've talked just a bit with Jay Moore via e-mail and I think he's sincere. He says he's been making money with his system for 20 years playing about 10 hours per week. And, despite the fact that he used to be a counter, his own system has proven to work for him.
In the end, regardless of the math and regardless of whether or not it would work for anyone else, all that is important is that your system works for YOU . . . for 20 years . . . two days a week . . . or however often you play.