BR Collapsed 50%, What To Do!?
- Thread starter zengrifter
- Start date
if i'm understanding this xxx only had 200 betting units to begin with and was betting a 1-5 spread. shouldn't he have had at least 500 betting units to begin with in order to have a decent ROR. seems he was overbetting to begin with. i'd suspend play for this particular game until i had a sufficient bank.
perhaps play some lower limit tables and differant game if need be.
perhaps play some lower limit tables and differant game if need be.
At a glance, he was CHRONICALLY overbet. His chronic overbet insured that in the longrun he'd go bust... so he fortunate it happened early.
Hypothetical:
He started with 20k and he was betting 1-5 black. He should have been betting 50-2x150 (or 25-2x125, better).
Now with 10k remaining he should be betting 25-2x75 (or 10-2x65, better)
Anyone else? zg
Hypothetical:
He started with 20k and he was betting 1-5 black. He should have been betting 50-2x150 (or 25-2x125, better).
Now with 10k remaining he should be betting 25-2x75 (or 10-2x65, better)
Anyone else? zg
I recieved the first part privately,as well.But not the second part.Without the second part,my answer was to keep the bet the same if he was sure it was bad variance,and he could replace the lost BR
But if he only had 200 units,then he shouldn't have been spreading 1-5.
With a $5 base,giving him a $1000 BR,spreading $5-$25 is overbetting.
But I'm curious. Had he started with a $10,000 BR,and lost $5,000 with the same spread,what would your advice be?
But if he only had 200 units,then he shouldn't have been spreading 1-5.
With a $5 base,giving him a $1000 BR,spreading $5-$25 is overbetting.
But I'm curious. Had he started with a $10,000 BR,and lost $5,000 with the same spread,what would your advice be?
I'm with the Frog
The wise toad has it right. If Mr. X's BR was $20K then his original max. bet should have been $200, so at that point I would have been betting $25-$150 and 2x $100 to keep in accordance with Kelly. As Zg said, this is the reason he went bust so quickly. No surprise here.
With the remainder of his BR, assuming it is now $10K, he needs to go down to $15-$75 and 2x$50 to stay in line. All this assumes that the DD game he is playing has decent rules and pen. and that his game is fundamentally sound.
The wise toad has it right. If Mr. X's BR was $20K then his original max. bet should have been $200, so at that point I would have been betting $25-$150 and 2x $100 to keep in accordance with Kelly. As Zg said, this is the reason he went bust so quickly. No surprise here.
With the remainder of his BR, assuming it is now $10K, he needs to go down to $15-$75 and 2x$50 to stay in line. All this assumes that the DD game he is playing has decent rules and pen. and that his game is fundamentally sound.
Thats a good question?
But without knowing what system hes using, rules in play, how accurate his play is, how aggressive his bet strategy, & conditions. Its immposible to tell exactly!
A 100-500 spread with a 10k BR is only 20 max bets
Unless he hits a winning streak soon lady luck will personally introduce him to the blackjack gods:angel: I would say hes right at 50/50 given hes betting and playing accuratly.
He made a serious mistake by overbetting in proportion to his BR.
Downsize! Downsize!:whip:
But without knowing what system hes using, rules in play, how accurate his play is, how aggressive his bet strategy, & conditions. Its immposible to tell exactly!
A 100-500 spread with a 10k BR is only 20 max bets
Unless he hits a winning streak soon lady luck will personally introduce him to the blackjack gods:angel: I would say hes right at 50/50 given hes betting and playing accuratly.He made a serious mistake by overbetting in proportion to his BR.
Downsize! Downsize!:whip:
i think if you have a ROR 30% or above that you are likely betting twice the optimal bet or more. according to Wong a better that goes over twice the optimal bet level consistantly will lose money even if playing under what should be advantage conditions. again according to Wong it can be mathematically proven that such a betting will result in ruin.
i haven't seen the maths proof. my guess is that having a limited bankroll and overbetting results in times when the negative fluctuation is so great that eventually it exceeds what bank you do have.
i haven't seen the maths proof. my guess is that having a limited bankroll and overbetting results in times when the negative fluctuation is so great that eventually it exceeds what bank you do have.
That is assuming his goal is to win 100 units. His risk of going broke before winning 100 units is probably about 35%. If you look at the lifetime RoR (with no goal or time constraints) it will probably be closer to 75%. That gives him a 25% chance of not going broke if he continues to play at that level.
-Sonny-
-Sonny-