Can someone tell me the odds of this happening

[Thunder]

I was playing on Ultimate bet, which I strongly recommend you don't as they are the king of bad beats, but here's what happened. I was at a 9 player table.

The board was a, 8, 6 all hearts. I had qh, 7h for a flush on the flop. First off, what's the odds of me losing here. Secondly what are the odds of 2 other people also having a flush who were in the hand on the flop. Needless to say, I was in disbelief as I lost a monster of a pot. I'm guessing since the odds of flopping a flush are 1-118, it would be (1/118) ^3 = .00000061 or 1 in 4 million or so.

 

[DownUnderWonder]

The odds youve posted are not correct for a number of reasons. First, the odds of others getting a flush on the flop decrease because you are using two of the hearts, but they odds increase since it is already known that there are all hearts on the flop, so using a number based on no cards dealt is totally meaningless. There are 8 missing hearts out of 47 cards so the odds of one other person also holding pocket hearts is not that remarkable with 8 other players playing. Of course, the only one you are worrying about is the King, so just having a flush is of no concern to you. In fact, you would hope that others have a flush, since the chance that they have a King high flush is lower than any other flush.

You can't simply call this a 'bad beat' because someone had a better flush on the flop, because they had a better hand than you from the very start. If you feel like it, post how the hand played out and maybe someone can help analyze it for you to to see what signs you missed in the bets. If if was a monster pot as you say then either there were many callers with moderate bets or perhaps you were heads up and the bets were large. In either case, and depending on how the hand played out and what the rest of the board was, I think there would have been indicators of a strong hand.

My advice is not to get pissed off and try to work out the odds of a particular thing happening, because that isnt going to help you. Take a step back and work out where you made a mistake, and this loss will save you a lot of money in the long run.

 

[KenSmith]

The chances that another player flopped a king high flush...

Odds for a particular opponent to be holding King and another heart:
(1/47) * (7/46) * 2 = 0.00648 or 1 in 154.

Now I'll take a shortcut that underestimates the chances that one of your 8 opponents has a better hand post-flop:

If each player's cards were independently dealt from a separate 47-card remainder, we could do this:
Odds that none of your opponents have a King-high flush immediately upon the flop: (1 - 0.00648) ^ 8 = 0.949
That leaves just over 5% chance of one of them outflopping you.

This method pretty severely underestimates the chances of you being beaten, because if the 1st opponent doesn't have the flush, that noticeably increases the chances of opponents 2 through 8 holding hearts.

Add to this already 1 in 20 shot of losing all the ways you can lose on the turn and river, and this isn't a very bad beat.

Now, don't get me wrong. I'm certainly no UB apologist. I think the hole-card scandal is reason enough to stay away. Just why are you still playing there?

 

[Thunder]

The chances that another player flopped a king high flush...

Odds for a particular opponent to be holding King and another heart:
(1/47) * (7/46) * 2 = 0.00648 or 1 in 154.

Now I'll take a shortcut that underestimates the chances that one of your 8 opponents has a better hand post-flop:

If each player's cards were independently dealt from a separate 47-card remainder, we could do this:
Odds that none of your opponents have a King-high flush immediately upon the flop: (1 - 0.00648) ^ 8 = 0.949
That leaves just over 5% chance of one of them outflopping you.

This method pretty severely underestimates the chances of you being beaten, because if the 1st opponent doesn't have the flush, that noticeably increases the chances of opponents 2 through 8 holding hearts.

Add to this already 1 in 20 shot of losing all the ways you can lose on the turn and river, and this isn't a very bad beat.

Now, don't get me wrong. I'm certainly no UB apologist. I think the hole-card scandal is reason enough to stay away. Just why are you still playing there?

Ken, I don't dispute that me losing was such an incredible bad beat after the flop. What I dispute is the likelihood of two other people also having flushes at a table of 8 on the flop, one of whom had the king with a low kicker.


I figured after the scandal, they'd have cleaned up their act and there are more fishes there than say poker stars. However, call it crazy but I've noticed I get bad beat there far more often than in real life or on full tilt.

 

[DownUnderWonder]

Ken, I don't dispute that me losing was such an incredible bad beat after the flop. What I dispute is the likelihood of two other people also having flushes at a table of 8 on the flop, one of whom had the king with a low kicker.


I figured after the scandal, they'd have cleaned up their act and there are more fishes there than say poker stars. However, call it crazy but I've noticed I get bad beat there far more often than in real life or on full tilt.

You misread Ken's post, he said it is not a bad beat, which is it not. The chances of someone else having KhXh in this situation is about 2.6%, but that isnt the point. If you want to lay out how the hand played down I am sure you can get some good advice for the future. It sounds like this was a very loose table, and you can lose big pots easily on loose tables. KhXH isnt the only hand that should have worried you on the flop. Kh with an offsuit card, any set and perhaps even two pairs could have caused problems as the hand played out. What type of game, stakes was it, and what position were you in to play with Qh7h? It is a weak hand to begin with.

 

[Thunder]

You misread Ken's post, he said it is not a bad beat, which is it not. The chances of someone else having KhXh in this situation is about 2.6%, but that isnt the point. If you want to lay out how the hand played down I am sure you can get some good advice for the future. It sounds like this was a very loose table, and you can lose big pots easily on loose tables. KhXH isnt the only hand that should have worried you on the flop. Kh with an offsuit card, any set and perhaps even two pairs could have caused problems as the hand played out. What type of game, stakes was it, and what position were you in to play with Qh7h? It is a weak hand to begin with.

I mistyped. Sorry for the confusion. It was actually a very good table as it was deep in a tournament. I was SB, and nobody had raised which is why I had called. I'm not disputing the fact that other hands could possibly of beaten my flush but since there were only 4 or 5 people in the hand to begin with, made it hard to believe that 3/4 people would have flushes
There is no possible way I could have played the hand better and I highly doubt anyone is going to lay down a queen high flush in that situation especially since everyone was all in after the flop. I just hate losing hands where only 1 card could have possibly of beaten me. Oh well.

 

[DownUnderWonder]

Ah, a tournament, well that changes things Did you make the money? It can suck for sure when you go out like that. In tournaments, it can sometimes pay to lay down a good hand if you suspect someone may have you beat, or may draw out on you, if a few people were all in before you it may have raised a red flag. If your stack is deep enough it can pay to play a little conservatively if you are close to the bubble.

Try not to let it get into your head too much, accept it, take from it what you can, but don't let it grind away at you. Things like this can follow someone around into future games and cost them a lot of money. Good luck in your next tourney!

 

[callipygian]

I just hate losing hands where only 1 card could have possibly of beaten me.

This is a fallacy that needs to be corrected on multiple levels.

(1) Getting hit with a true 1-outer isn't really that bad. Play often enough and it will happen to you. That it hasn't suggests that you simply haven't played enough hands - it WILL happen to you sooner or later if you play enough. A true 1-outer is either a set->quads vs. made full house or straight/flush->straight flush vs. full house/quads.

e.g.
Player 1: 88, Player 2: J9
Flop: J98, Turn: J, River: 8

or
Player 1: 6h5h, Player 2: 7d7c
Flop: 9h7h7s, Turn: x, River: 8h

(2) You didn't get hit with a 1-outer. As a matter of fact, anyone with a set or two pair has reasonable odds to outdraw even the nut flush - a set has 7 outs on the flop, 10 outs after the turn; two pair has 4 outs twice. Again, play often enough and you'll get your made flushes boated on the river 1 out of every 8 times or so.

(3) With three hearts on the flop, your chances of losing are pretty high if you don't have the nut flush. Anyone with a nut flush draw has 3:1 odds (lower than the usual 2:1 because you hold two of his outs in your hand) to draw out on you, so assuming that the Kh was dealt and not folded, your odds are 75%. So add that to the possibility that people have trips or two pair, and I doubt your pot equity here is more than 90% - certainly enough to roll your eyes about, but certainly not enough to think online is rigged.

since there were only 4 or 5 people in the hand to begin with, made it hard to believe that 3/4 people would have flushes

Why not? This isn't seven-card stud. The probability of a second person making a flush is higher than the probability of the first person making a flush, because of co-variance due to community cards. If AAA shows up on the flop, what's the likelihood that everyone has at least a three of a kind? 100%!

This is entirely why you can't get wedded to hands like Q7s and second nut flush - Q7s is very easily dominated by AQ-QT and Axs/Kxs (which people often play) and it ends up costing you a lot of money on top pair, weak kicker and second nut flush when you "hit" the hand.

If your stack/blind ratio is getting low, you have no option but to push with Q7s and second nut flush. But it's not a good thing, like, "oh, goodie, I get to risk my entire tournament on nobody having the Kh or no hearts showing up on the turn or river" - it's something you sigh and do because the alternative is even worse.

call it crazy but I've noticed I get bad beat there far more often than in real life or on full tilt

There is no way that you even have 1/1,000,000th of the sample size that you need to make that statement.

 

[1357111317]

How about this one for odds. Playing 3 tables at the same time and being dealt pocket pairs in all of them at the same time. 9/(51^3) or 0.00006818 or 0.006818 %

 

[SleightOfHand]

How about this one for odds. Playing 3 tables at the same time and being dealt pocket pairs in all of them at the same time. 9/(51^3) or 0.00006818 or 0.006818 %

Where did you get this number? I would think its ((1/13)(3/51))^3

 

[1357111317]

I figured the odds of getting any pocket pair to be 3/51. The odds of getting 3 of them is (3/51)^3 or 9/(51^3)

 

[SleightOfHand]

I figured the odds of getting any pocket pair to be 3/51. The odds of getting 3 of them is (3/51)^3 or 9/(51^3)

Oops, yea I made a mistake its (1(3/51))^3. So its 27/(51^3). 3^3 =/= 9

 

[Thunder]

callipgian

This is a fallacy that needs to be corrected on multiple levels.

(1) Getting hit with a true 1-outer isn't really that bad. Play often enough and it will happen to you. That it hasn't suggests that you simply haven't played enough hands - it WILL happen to you sooner or later if you play enough. A true 1-outer is either a set->quads vs. made full house or straight/flush->straight flush vs. full house/quads.

e.g.
Player 1: 88, Player 2: J9
Flop: J98, Turn: J, River: 8

or
Player 1: 6h5h, Player 2: 7d7c
Flop: 9h7h7s, Turn: x, River: 8h

(2) You didn't get hit with a 1-outer. As a matter of fact, anyone with a set or two pair has reasonable odds to outdraw even the nut flush - a set has 7 outs on the flop, 10 outs after the turn; two pair has 4 outs twice. Again, play often enough and you'll get your made flushes boated on the river 1 out of every 8 times or so.

(3) With three hearts on the flop, your chances of losing are pretty high if you don't have the nut flush. Anyone with a nut flush draw has 3:1 odds (lower than the usual 2:1 because you hold two of his outs in your hand) to draw out on you, so assuming that the Kh was dealt and not folded, your odds are 75%. So add that to the possibility that people have trips or two pair, and I doubt your pot equity here is more than 90% - certainly enough to roll your eyes about, but certainly not enough to think online is rigged.



Why not? This isn't seven-card stud. The probability of a second person making a flush is higher than the probability of the first person making a flush, because of co-variance due to community cards. If AAA shows up on the flop, what's the likelihood that everyone has at least a three of a kind? 100%!

This is entirely why you can't get wedded to hands like Q7s and second nut flush - Q7s is very easily dominated by AQ-QT and Axs/Kxs (which people often play) and it ends up costing you a lot of money on top pair, weak kicker and second nut flush when you "hit" the hand.

If your stack/blind ratio is getting low, you have no option but to push with Q7s and second nut flush. But it's not a good thing, like, "oh, goodie, I get to risk my entire tournament on nobody having the Kh or no hearts showing up on the turn or river" - it's something you sigh and do because the alternative is even worse.



There is no way that you even have 1/1,000,000th of the sample size that you need to make that statement.

I'm not saying it's a huge bad beat that I got beaten. What I am saying is what are the odds of 3/4 people in a hand on the flop having nut flushes?!! and on top of that, me losing with the 2nd highest possible flush.

 

[callipygian]

What I am saying is what are the odds of 3/4 people in a hand on the flop having nut flushes?

Zero, unless the deck is crooked.

What I am saying is what are the odds of 3/4 people in a hand on the flop having flushes?

Higher than you think it is.

As I posted before: "The probability of a second person making a flush is higher than the probability of the first person making a flush, because of co-variance due to community cards. If AAA shows up on the flop, what's the likelihood that everyone has at least a three of a kind? 100%!"

With three hearts on the flop, there's a 39% chance that 1 other person has a flush draw, 15% chance that 2 other people have a flush draw, and 5% chance that 3 other people have a flush draw - for a 13% chance that 1 other person ends up making a flush, 4% chance that 2 other people end up making flushes, and 1% chance that 3 other people end up making flushes.

Flopping a weak flush and then getting beat is not rare at all.

 

[1357111317]

People frequently think that stuff that happens in poker is impossible. AA v KK is a good example of this. Ask someone how often that hand happens and they will say thousands of hands. At a 10 player table the odds of seeing a KK v AA is roughly 10*(1/220)*(9*(1/220)) which is once in 530 hands. It is a lot more common than you would think.

 

[UK-21]

And this one . . .?

Was watching a late night heads up quarter-final knockout for some world championship a couple of nights ago. One player has Ac10c and goes all in as he was short stacked. The other calls and turns over As10s. So it's all even, with both playing for the flush but with the odds favouring a split pot. The flop brings 3 spades. What are the odds of that?

11/48 * 10/47 * 9/46 = 0.0095. More than 99-1

And I thought providence kept that sort of s#it just for me . . . .

 

[callipygian]

The flop brings 3 spades. What are the odds of that?

What are the odds of it happening, or what are the odds of it being shown on TV?

TV has a really high percentage of "interesting" hands because the uninteresting hands have been cut out by the editor. Nobody (to my knowledge) shows the hands where everyone folds to the button, who raises to steal, and the blinds fold. That's uninteresting TV and as a result, most new players vastly overestimate the "interestingness" of their hands because they think every hand has to be an all-in as it is on TV.

I don't think I'm going to post on these "what are the odds" threads any more, unless someone has a real odds question and not a "look at my one-in-a-million hand".

 

[hawkeye]

To be fair, Q high flush from the flop is a very decent hand. I'm not saying it's a monster, but it's a very decent hand.

 

[callipygian]

To be fair, Q high flush from the flop is a very decent hand. I'm not saying it's a monster, but it's a very decent hand.

It's a great hand, but gets devalued due to conditional probability - if anyone raised preflop, people who call are more likely than strict probability to have high, suited cards. So the probability of someone having KhJh on the turn is higher than the probability of someone having KhJh preflop, because the betting selects for good hands.

In this case, note how Thunder expressed his OP: that he eventually lost the hand (not that he had already lost on the flop). I'm guessing that a fourth heart came out on the turn and river (now HUGELY increasing the odds of people having flushes as there are 4 hearts on the board) and that someone held the Kh. Also note that if the board pairs on the river, it's more likely than statistical that someone has a full house - a set has up to 10 outs against a made flush and two pair has 4 outs against a made flush, so these are drawing live even if they're sure someone has a flush already.

I'd be ecstatic with flopping the 2nd nut flush, but I wouldn't be wedded to it.

 

[UK-21]

What are the odds of it happening, or what are the odds of it being shown on TV?

TV has a really high percentage of "interesting" hands because the uninteresting hands have been cut out by the editor. Nobody (to my knowledge) shows the hands where everyone folds to the button, who raises to steal, and the blinds fold. That's uninteresting TV and as a result, most new players vastly overestimate the "interestingness" of their hands because they think every hand has to be an all-in as it is on TV.

Of course. But to blow out of a world championship quarter-final, and any money (last stage before a guarantee of a cheque for something), as a result of that happening is a serious pi$$er. He smiled and shook hands with the guy who went through. Magnanimous in defeat (although what else on the telly?). I would have been seriously pi$$ed off. But that's probably why I've decided to draw a line under it all.