Card counting has failed miserably

[eldorado]

Hey I have counting cards for several months now and I play at 6 deck tables with about 4.5 decks penetration, double on any two cards, reslit up to 4 times, one card on split aces, no surrender

i can accurately count down a deck of cards to zero without fail using the high low method in about 28 seconds.

I always convert my true count before i bet higher.

I play at $5 tables and use a 1-6 bet spread.

I can honestly say that i have lost about 80-90% of my big bets so counting seems to have the opposite effect of what its supposed to do. I usually get either a 10 card and a low card in which I hit or stand on basic strategy or two low cards and then a 10 card in wihch i hit or stand based on basic strategy. The majority of times i end up with 12-16 or i bust.

Anyone else have this problem?

 

[NightStalker]

You are more expected

to end up with stiff than 19-20s. You re expected to lose on dozens of stiff but win more on your successful double & splits.. This is very much expected and 50-100hours of play irrelevant for the game with small EV and huge variance..

 

[21gunsalute]

I feel your pain. When I started counting I went through a stretch of 13 consecutive losing sessions. I had nights where I lost every hand when I put more than 2 units out. It's gotten better, but I still have bad streaks.

You haven't told us how often you play or other relevant info, but here's a few observations. A 1-6 spread isn't nearly enough of a spread for shoe games. I'd say a minimum of 1-12 should be used and 1-16 would be more preferable. And Basic Strategy alone won't cut it. You need to learn index plays which will tell you when to deviate from BS. If you haven't already done so, click on the Blackjack School link on the left margin. It's very helpful.

 

[FLASH1296]

Your 6-1 spread is NOT even sufficient to break even in this shoe game — and is a big loser if it is a game where the dealer hits S17.

It also sounds like you are not using indices to vary from Basic Strategy. If that is the case your bet spread is EXTREMELY inadequate.

Where are you playing ?

 

[eldorado]

I play about 3 nights a week in Reno/Tahoe

As for a 1-12 or 1-16 spread, wont that give me away as a card counter?

 

[moo321]

I play about 3 nights a week in Reno/Tahoe

As for a 1-12 or 1-16 spread, wont that give me away as a card counter?

Any spread could give you away as a counter. But you have to win money!

 

[FLASH1296]

You need to camouflage your bet spread by betting more than a single minimal unit "off the top";
Bet randomly 2 or 3 units and spread UP and DOWN from there. Stay at 2 units if your True Count
is between −1 and +1 This means that you'll be betting 2 units nearly ⅔ of the time.
Refraining from constant bet-resizing is the single most important form of camouflage;
that along with not betting one unit off the top.

While this stratagem will cost you a little of your advantage, you will
more than make that up by being able to spread more aggressively.

There is one caveat though, your mean wager will be increased and
thus your Risk of Ruin. DO NOT attempt this if your bankroll is shaky.

 

[moo321]

You need to camouflage your bet spread by betting more than a single minimal unit "off the top";
Bet randomly 2 or 3 units and spread UP and DOWN from there. Stay at 2 units if your True Count
is between −1 and +1 This means that you'll be betting 2 units nearly ⅔ of the time.
Refraining from constant bet-resizing is the single most important form of camouflage;
that along with not betting one unit off the top.

While this stratagem will cost you a little of your advantage, you will
more than make that up by being able to spread more aggressively.

There is one caveat though, your mean wager will be increased and
thus your Risk of Ruin. DO NOT attempt this if your bankroll is shaky.

Judging from his post, I'm guessing the bankroll's a bit shaky.

 

[pogostick]

I am going on a 6 day cruise next week & the tables are all 8 decks except There is 1 single deck game ,but the rules of allowing doubling down & doubling after a split may take away any advantage. I have had my butt kicked by rules on single D . I may just play on the $5 tables & keep it$10 at any plus count & $5 any min count. What do you guys think? Am I being to simple. These tables D hits soft 17

 

[21gunsalute]

I play about 3 nights a week in Reno/Tahoe

As for a 1-12 or 1-16 spread, wont that give me away as a card counter?

Not likely. Ploppies spread money too, they just bet heavy at the wrong times.

 

[bj bob]

I play about 3 nights a week in Reno/Tahoe

As for a 1-12 or 1-16 spread, wont that give me away as a card counter?

You're playing 6 deck shoes in Reno? That's your first problem. Just look around and you'll find some of the finest pitch (SD,DD) games anywhere. Your 1-6 spread will do just fine at an adequately dealt DD table. Learn the I-18 indices and that should get you started in the right direction.

 

[eldorado]

You're playing 6 deck shoes in Reno? That's your first problem. Just look around and you'll find some of the finest pitch (SD,DD) games anywhere. Your 1-6 spread will do just fine at an adequately dealt DD table. Learn the I-18 indices and that should get you started in the right direction.

Which casinos offer good penetration for SD and DD games?

I know the peppermill offers a good single deck game. The time i went that particular dealer was dealing about 80-90% of the cards prior to shuffle.

But most other places seem to cut off after 1 deck or only offer 6:5 blackjack.

 

[21gunsalute]

Which casinos offer good penetration for SD and DD games?

I know the peppermill offers a good single deck game. The time i went that particular dealer was dealing about 80-90% of the cards prior to shuffle.

But most other places seem to cut off after 1 deck or only offer 6:5 blackjack.

The Sands has decent single and DD.

 

[aslan]

Not likely. Ploppies spread money too, they just bet heavy at the wrong times.

I'd say if you consistently bet more at the precise moment you hit your key count, that is a dead giveaway IF they are watching you. If not, then you're okay, and if you are betting a small min game in an average casino not known as a sweat box, I wouldn't worry about it. Personally, I have a habit of mixing up when I begin ramping up my bets, and I do like to do it in natural ways, like "letting it ride." But watch the effect on the PCs when you are at max bet. If they go to the phone, you will probably be surveilled. If they could care less, then you are probably good to go.

PS--By "you" I don't mean you personally, 21gunsalute. lol

 

[bj bob]

Which casinos offer good penetration for SD and DD games?

I know the peppermill offers a good single deck game. The time i went that particular dealer was dealing about 80-90% of the cards prior to shuffle.

But most other places seem to cut off after 1 deck or only offer 6:5 blackjack.

Without getting into pen on the open forum, I would suggest scouting the DD games at the El Dorado, Legacy and the Grand Sierra for starters. Spend a couple of hours doing some leg work around town and you'll find it pays off handsomely.