Card counting seems like a whole lot of not playing

[noodleZ]

I've been at this a week, going full tilt at learning to count, because I want to be great at this and I know it takes a lot of practice to be able to keep up with the count, be able to add my card values together without losing the count, remember BS, and look like I'm not a card counter.

The thing is, when I'm practicing on CVBJ, it looks like I'm going to have to sit out A LOT of games. The counts are usually negative it seems. When the count is dropping, it's because there are some great cards coming out and if one is not playing, because the count is low, you'll miss those cards. It's a lot of waiting around.

Now, practicing at the kitchen table, a lot of the shuffles I shouldn't even be playing, because the count sucks more often than not. I'd like to get an idea of how to actually play/bet while the count is good, but the count is rarely good! I'm just practicing counting the cards. In a single deck game, there's usually just one or two hands where the count is positive. I don't see how one could get away with counting, because it seems like a counter's play would be very easily detected. In a six deck game, it takes forever for the count to get positive, but it stays positive for longer.

So, what percentage of the time are you actually playing while you're at the casino and not just standing around backcounting or jumping around to different tables when the count is negative.

What strategies for finding and deciding when to play and leave do you use? How long can one just stand around counting before it's obvious what you're doing?

 

[EasyRhino]

You're kind of right, but it depends a lot on the conditions of where you're at.

If you're playing single deck or double deck, there's a good chance that you'll be in a play-all environment. Especially single deck. and there's nothing particularly wrong with that.

If you're at a small joint, you're limited in how much you can table hop. So you'll probably play a lot of shoes off the top, and then wong out after a deck or two if the count is going nowhere. Actually, in these cases where you're playing and the count drops precipitously, you're reaping teh advantage of all those small cards... just only with your minimum bets.

It's very annoying if you're backcounting various tables, and can't spot a good count for over an hour. It's a small comfort to be able to tell yourself, 'well,at least I wasn't playing in those terrible counts".

But still, if you're at a place with 8D shoes, and a whole lot of tables, you should spend most of your time standing around. It may sound like purgatory, but I'm told it's actually Atlantic City.

 

[Brock Windsor]

Back Counting

I've started wearing running shoes to the casino I spend so much time standing. I use KO and only play + counts. 8 deck shoes DOA,DAS,75% is all they've got where I play which is tough. Met another counter today who said he had to get orthotics because of BJ so be ready for it. It gets boring and it is very discouraging to wait for the good count, step in with your max bet, then see 4 blackjacks on the table while you've got a stiff. On the other side though when you walk into one of those BJ's and everyone says 'you must've had a good feeling to finally jump in' it is quite rewarding. If you can find single or double deck even with worse rules I suspect it is much more profitable and enjoyable but if not be prepared to backcount a lot or absorb that slow grind of the house edge on your min bet. Even playing as conservatively as I do I am down 92units counting in the last 8 sessions. Before you count a shoe in any session I recommend scouting each dealer in the joint carefully to try and find a hole carding dealer as it is significantly more profitable I find to see one hole card in 10 then to back count 8 deckers all day.
BW

 

[zengrifter]

So, what percentage of the time are you actually playing while you're at the casino and not just standing around backcounting or jumping around to different tables when the count is negative.

Less than 33% = 20min of money in play per hour of watching/counting, but look at it as playing even when you are not betting. Use "reverse-wonging" as well, which means you can begin play with min-bets at the start of a shoe but exit away when the count drops below a certain level.

How long can one just stand around counting before it's obvious what you're doing?

A long time when you are betting to a small BR... maybe forever. Don't be self-concious about it untill you are betting $25u. zg

 

[ChefJJ]

I've been at this a week, going full tilt at learning to count, because I want to be great at this and I know it takes a lot of practice to be able to keep up with the count, be able to add my card values together without losing the count, remember BS, and look like I'm not a card counter.

The thing is, when I'm practicing on CVBJ, it looks like I'm going to have to sit out A LOT of games. The counts are usually negative it seems. When the count is dropping, it's because there are some great cards coming out and if one is not playing, because the count is low, you'll miss those cards. It's a lot of waiting around.

Now, practicing at the kitchen table, a lot of the shuffles I shouldn't even be playing, because the count sucks more often than not. I'd like to get an idea of how to actually play/bet while the count is good, but the count is rarely good! I'm just practicing counting the cards. In a single deck game, there's usually just one or two hands where the count is positive. I don't see how one could get away with counting, because it seems like a counter's play would be very easily detected. In a six deck game, it takes forever for the count to get positive, but it stays positive for longer.

So, what percentage of the time are you actually playing while you're at the casino and not just standing around backcounting or jumping around to different tables when the count is negative.

What strategies for finding and deciding when to play and leave do you use? How long can one just stand around counting before it's obvious what you're doing?

Remember though...a negative count doesn't necessarily mean you are going to lose. I think we've all had days where the low counts mean winning hands and vice versa. But I don't know the math, and I'm sure I'll catch hell for saying that.

good luck

 

[sagefr0g]

......

It's very annoying if you're backcounting various tables, and can't spot a good count for over an hour. It's a small comfort to be able to tell yourself, 'well,at least I wasn't playing in those terrible counts".

yep and you ain't losing money when you ain't playing.

But still, if you're at a place with 8D shoes, and a whole lot of tables, you should spend most of your time standing around. It may sound like purgatory, but I'm told it's actually Atlantic City.

:laugh:

 

[sagefr0g]

Remember though...a negative count doesn't necessarily mean you are going to lose. I think we've all had days where the low counts mean winning hands and vice versa. But I don't know the math, and I'm sure I'll catch hell for saying that.

good luck

heh, heh yeah you might catch hell but you shouldn't.
doubtless it's true we need to avoid those negative counts.
it is an interesting fact that we can win during negative counts.
great area for research IMHO..... just not play till it's understood.

 

[CarlB]

I think I understand minus counts, somewhat.

I think I understand minus counts, somewhat. First of all I play two deck and 6 deck shoes. I will not play an 8D shoe. Think about it as the count is going neg it is acting like a plus shoe. You are going thru a shoe that is acting plus. As the count goes down play BS as if the count is +4% to +6 or +8%. You may have one unit out but from stats you should be winning more that 50% of your hands. You are going throught a high card clump. High card clumps can last thru 21 to 200 cards. If a high minus count and next round the count does not change or starts to go less neg get out.

I did not understand the clump concept when I first started count cards and was "fooled" by it many times. Now I think I understand it well.

 

[Mimosine]

Remember though...a negative count doesn't necessarily mean you are going to lose. I think we've all had days where the low counts mean winning hands and vice versa. But I don't know the math, and I'm sure I'll catch hell for saying that.

good luck

i had one very memorable VERY neg count shoe where i won about 80% of my hands. The count went down 10 points in 1 deck, rather than up 4!
i was in a play-all situation, before i knew any better.

realistically, i won on luck.

 

[Sonny]

Think about it as the count is going neg it is acting like a plus shoe. You are going thru a shoe that is acting plus…You are going throught a high card clump.

I see your point. As long as the count is dropping it means that the “good” cards are coming out. It doesn’t matter if the count drops from +5 to 0 or –5 to –10, either way you are getting the good cards.

However, it is important to realize that when the count is negative you are at an overall disadvantage. Unless you know that you are in the middle of a high card clump (through visual tracking or some similar technique) then you should consider every bet to be a bad one. Many people have fallen into the Patterson “clumping camp” and found themselves following imaginary clumps that a shuffle tracker can easily spot. Clumping can be a slippery slope even for experienced players.

-Sonny-

 

[Cardcounter]

Play Negative and positive counts!

I play weather or not the count is positive, negative, or neutral but I bet differently. When the count is negative most of the time I will not wong out but I will just place a smaller bet. When the count is positive I will place bigger bets and I will usually play the next hand is well. I have no problem losing my smaller bets as long as I can win the majority of my bigger bets and their double downs and splits! In fact I feel like I king if I just lost 4 $5 bets and hit a $25 bet to take back all my loss plus a $5 profit!

 

[sagefr0g]

I play weather or not the count is positive, negative, or neutral but I bet differently. When the count is negative most of the time I will not wong out but I will just place a smaller bet. When the count is positive I will place bigger bets and I will usually play the next hand is well. I have no problem losing my smaller bets as long as I can win the majority of my bigger bets and their double downs and splits! In fact I feel like I king if I just lost 4 $5 bets and hit a $25 bet to take back all my loss plus a $5 profit!

yeah it pretty much works that way doesn't it. you know i mean like you might be up a couple hundred or so and then by the end of your playing session you so often come up with pretty near your expectation.... $6 for an hour or what ever.
pretty much works that way if your not going play all but are say wonging out and you get floored by negative fluctuation after hitting some nice big bets.

 

[flyer]

Remember though...a negative count doesn't necessarily mean you are going to lose. I think we've all had days where the low counts mean winning hands and vice versa. But I don't know the math, and I'm sure I'll catch hell for saying that.

good luck

I've been wondering about this. I'm a new AP and am only playing low stakes to build my bankroll ($10 min, $50 max). I have good discipline about my sessions, not playing for too long, and have good accuracy with my counting. I play 6 & 8 deck shoes with 75-80% pen and S17. What I've noticed in several day trips is that several times I have gone up one hundred to two hundred during a session when the TC is -1 to -4, but have not done well during the times that the TC has been +2 or higher. The dealer isn't busting a whole lot, but neither am I and I'm coming out ahead, whereas when the TC goes way positive, the dealer seems to be getting strong hands and I'm losing most of my larger bets, ending in a session loss.

I know that the positive counts favor the players and that is the time to get the larger bets on the table. I'm just looking for some encouragement to get through this observation. I was up $840 after five day trips, but now after 10 trips I'm only up $300. My losing sessions have all occurred when I've encountered some excellent positive counts, and my most profitable sessions have been on negative counts.

Is it just that I haven't been the one at these tables to be reaping the benefits of the positive counts, and eventually I will get the right cards coming out of the shoe? Do I need to look for less crowded tables and play two hands to take advantage of the positive counts, rather than just upping my one bet? Any encouragement and thoughts would be appreciated.

Thanks,

Flyer

 

[eps6724]

I know that the positive counts favor the players and that is the time to get the larger bets on the table. I'm just looking for some encouragement to get through this observation. I was up $840 after five day trips, but now after 10 trips I'm only up $300. My losing sessions have all occurred when I've encountered some excellent positive counts, and my most profitable sessions have been on negative counts.

Flyer

As was explained to me early on-you don't make money when the count is up. You make money when the count is DROPPING, because THIS is when the high cards-favorable to us-are coming out. Theoretically, you wong in at a + count with the anticipation that the count drop. (and, if the shoe was played to the last card, the count WILL drop).

The good thing about couning is we know the makeup of the rest of the deck. So, when there are more high cards it is favorable for us-IF they come out! If you jump into a high + count and it begins to fall, theoretically this is when you make your money. I remember losing 8 hands in a row after jumping into a +2 true count. My thinking-I have the advantage-the count is ready to drop-just to see the small cards keep coming and the count keep rising! (Then the shuffle card came out, and I slunk away rather PO'd, but that's how the gme works)

Now, if one of these math geniuses could figure out how we can tell exactly WHEN the count will start dropping...

 

[ChefJJ]

Flyer,

Another thing to remember about the high counts is that you should have a larger bet out there in those situations, and a couple inopportune losses can equal the gains of several minimum bet wins. High counts simply mean that there is a higher composition of big cards in the deck, which are generally better for the player than the house...but there's nothing stopping the dealer from getting those 20's and blackjacks too.

But, all and all, making big bets and playing in high counts is advantageous in the long run probabilities of it all...anything can happen in the short term.

good luck

 

[EasyRhino]

Yeah flyer, it takes a long time to get a "feel" for the variance in the game. I've finally gotten a handle on "regular" fluctuations, but I haven't been hit by any of the absurd streaks that are out there.

Look at it this way. When you're placing the $50 bet, you might have a 2% advantage. So you can think "this bet has an expectation of one dollar". But in actuality, you're going to win or lose $50 for that expectation of one dollar. But hey, a buck's a buck, right? That's why we play.

And a minimum $10 bet is going to cost you 20 cents in a negative count. Would you like to sit at a table and throw away 20 cents for no particular reason (many hands in a row?) Of course not, so if you can find a way to not be playing then, then that's the way to go!

 

[ihate17]

A lot of good advice in this thread

One thing that is kind of said in this thread is in order to be a winner at blackjack, you do need patience. You might start shoe after shoe only to leave when the count tanks or count down a bunch of tables waiting to find a good count.
When the opportunity comes, you then must pounce.

ihate17

 

[flyer]

Thanks for the encouragement everyone. Just what I needed to hear.