Casino Heat
- Thread starter Just Learning
- Start date
That's kind of the point I was making. So many people are afraid to split tens not because they have experienced heat by doing so, but rather because they read that splitting tens is a counter move. It's true, most people know that basic strategy tells us to not split tens, but it also tells us not to take insurance.
Sure, the dealer will often call out "splitting tens" and the boss might watch the hand, but what difference does that make? If a boss is going to be observant enough to know what it means and can nail you based on these observations, then you're done anyway. If a civilian splits tens and the boss comes over to check, what information do they have that makes you look any different than them? Counting is absurdly simple to spot, and I really don't think that giving up EV on splitting tens (a very valuable index play) will buy most people the longevity that they've come to think through reading the literature.
Sure, the dealer will often call out "splitting tens" and the boss might watch the hand, but what difference does that make? If a boss is going to be observant enough to know what it means and can nail you based on these observations, then you're done anyway. If a civilian splits tens and the boss comes over to check, what information do they have that makes you look any different than them? Counting is absurdly simple to spot, and I really don't think that giving up EV on splitting tens (a very valuable index play) will buy most people the longevity that they've come to think through reading the literature.
That's all well and good for you. I've personally seen TT split exactly once in over 100 hours of play, and that was on a $10 bet. It's just not a common ploppy move... and certainly not when big money is down. I'm not advocating using this index play or not using it. But to suggest that it is a common move is just absurd.
I think you can get away with it easier at lower levels, just the same as you might be able to spread 1-20 at a $5 table, but try spreading 1-20 at a $100 table and you won't last long. The fact is splitting 10's draws attention, whether it be from the dealer calling out "splitting tens" or the others players loud moans. :laugh: I try to avoid drawing attention. Extra attention means someone may notice you spreading bets or making other plays, when they otherwise wouldn't. Drawing attention is bad for playing longevity if you are a regular player plain and simple, so you need to weigh the advantage of splitting 10's against that, especially at higher levels.
If you are playing low level and split 10's early on a few times at a neg EV situation with small bets out, it may buy you some cover when you do so with a larger bet out. But you are also cutting into your overall advantage of that move.
If you are splitting 10's at a higher level, doing so a couple times at 'inappropriate' times won't buy you as much cover. The saying is that only idiots and counters split 10 and the one time you split 10's and win 2 (or 3) large bets, you will be marked as a counter.
I personally could probably get away with splitting 10's more than I currently do, because I play very short sessions. I almost always leave the table after any shoe in which I placed large wagers and since I would only split 10's when the count was high and a large wager was out, I would be leaving at the end of the shoe anyway.
If you are playing low level and split 10's early on a few times at a neg EV situation with small bets out, it may buy you some cover when you do so with a larger bet out. But you are also cutting into your overall advantage of that move.
If you are splitting 10's at a higher level, doing so a couple times at 'inappropriate' times won't buy you as much cover. The saying is that only idiots and counters split 10 and the one time you split 10's and win 2 (or 3) large bets, you will be marked as a counter.
I personally could probably get away with splitting 10's more than I currently do, because I play very short sessions. I almost always leave the table after any shoe in which I placed large wagers and since I would only split 10's when the count was high and a large wager was out, I would be leaving at the end of the shoe anyway.
Like you, I rarely see tens split. However, just two weeks ago I saw it twice and both times this same player did it during a way negative count. As I recall, the dealer made 21 on one attempt beating both his splits, and on the other the ploppy pulled a low card and a ten and so pushed his two hands.
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My point is, splitting tens as a cover play when you have a min bet out will prove to the pit that you're an idiot, especially if it's against a dealer 10. Do it 2 times at a min bet and the pit will think you're an idiot when you do it at a max bet. Only do that at a store you plan to play at a long time. Once they brand you as an idiot, it's hard for them to think you're on the opposite end of the IQ scale as a counter. You're basically sacrificing EV now for greater future EV.
You don't watch enough drunk idiots play.
I don't play much blackjack, but when I do the dealers where I usually play could give a crap if I spread or make index plays. But then again, the rules SUCK where I play and only an idiot would try to straight count these games when there's far better games near by (I've backcounted to kill time, that's all, no way would i try to make a living off these crap games).
I don't play much blackjack, but when I do the dealers where I usually play could give a crap if I spread or make index plays. But then again, the rules SUCK where I play and only an idiot would try to straight count these games when there's far better games near by (I've backcounted to kill time, that's all, no way would i try to make a living off these crap games).
I'm pretty much of a nut so when I was developing my splitting algorithm I wanted to be able to handle continuous resplits. My present programs only handle 3 splits but the algorithm could handle more.
Below shows EVs for 9 splits of T-T versus 6. Shoe comp is (2-A) {10,9,10,10,9,12,12,12,57,15} which is a Hi-Lo TC=+8. If player splits at every opportunity these would be his expected values for stopping after 1-9 splits. EV goes up but goes up less and less for each succeeding split.
If Hi-Lo count is lessened so it's closer to the index then EV maximizes after about 2 splits and then begins to decline.
This is from an old program.
Below shows EVs for 9 splits of T-T versus 6. Shoe comp is (2-A) {10,9,10,10,9,12,12,12,57,15} which is a Hi-Lo TC=+8. If player splits at every opportunity these would be his expected values for stopping after 1-9 splits. EV goes up but goes up less and less for each succeeding split.
If Hi-Lo count is lessened so it's closer to the index then EV maximizes after about 2 splits and then begins to decline.
This is from an old program.
Code:
Dealer stands on soft 17
Hole card rule: None (American rules)
No surrender allowed
Number of allowed splits (Aces): 1
Number of allowed splits (2 - 10): 9
DAS
Player is allowed one card to split ace
Optimal strategy (split strat is fixed optimally on first split hand)
Dealer up card: 6
Player Hand: 10,10....computing....please wait
Player Stand EV: 0.7330761276
Player Hit EV: -0.812651908
Double EV on 20: -1.625303816
Split[1]: 0.8203912126
Split[2]: 0.8678739873
Split[3]: 0.8975177053
Split[4]: 0.9172246184
Split[5]: 0.9307660908
Split[6]: 0.9402334771
Split[7]: 0.9468992909
Split[8]: 0.9515877066
Split[9]: 0.9548566446
2 card doubles: None
Shoe comp (2-A) {10,9,10,10,9,12,12,12,57,15} (156 cards, Hi-Lo RC=+24, TC=+8)
Continue? (y or Y for Yes, any other key to exit)