Casino Promotion Question

B

BOND

Active Member
#1
#1
I would like opinions on the following Casino Promotion: 6d, Full Surrender Against Ace, H17, DAS, Suited BJ Pays 2:1 when the dealor does not have BJ, Player Suited 6,7,8 pays 2:1 if player wins the hand, Player Unsuited 6,7,8 pays 3:2 if Player wins the hand..

The penetration is very bad: 50% or 3/6 decks..

The bet limits are $5 - $100..Up to 2 spots..

Assume the player has a bankroll of $50k..

What spread is recommended? And the corresponding win rate? Considering the bad penetration, is the game worth the time?
 
Jack_Black

Jack_Black

Well-Known Member
#4
#4
what is full surrender? is that early or late surrender?

either way, this sounds too good to be true. you could flat bet this game and win money. is this some 1 hour weekday promotion?
 
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N

nybroker

Member
#8
#8
This game wouldnt last very long remember BS player is almost an even game with 2:1 payouts and ES it will not be a negative expectation game for most all
 
W

who345

Member
#9
#9
edge

-0.60% for typical game without those rules.
+0.57% for 2 to 1 suited BJ
+0.63% for early surrender, compare to no surrender game
+0.15% for 678 without changing basic strategy...guesstimate


0.75%
maybe 0.9% if you hit more on 67, 68, 78.


50000 * 0.75% / 1.2 -> $312 one box full kelly, $200 if two box.

$100 x 2 x 0.75% x 80 rounds/hr = $120/hr
 
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B

BOND

Active Member
#11
#11
Straight Game

The game appears to be straight..The promotion is for a limited time window: 2 hours..

The penetration keeps getting worse. The next question is: when is the game not worth the time investment?

If penetration goes to 33% or worse, is the game still worth the time?
 
Southpaw

Southpaw

Well-Known Member
#12
#12
BOND said:
The game appears to be straight..The promotion is for a limited time window: 2 hours..

The penetration keeps getting worse. The next question is: when is the game not worth the time investment?

If penetration goes to 33% or worse, is the game still worth the time?
Click to expand...
Penetration is not going to appreciably affect your return, if you plan to flat-bet this thing. Floating advantage, which is pretty negligible, is the only reason you will be losing advantage by getting worse penetration.

To the contrary, this weakened penetration could be to your advantage because it ensures that the count won't swing out of your favor. (Remember, you have the edge off the top). So, in theory it may be even better if you could get this game on a CSM, as this would ensure you had the advantage on every hand. It would also give you more rounds per hour.

SP
 
Lonesome Gambler

Lonesome Gambler

Well-Known Member
#13
#13
How long does the shuffle take and how slow is the game? If 10% of the 2-hour promotion is used to shuffle because of the poor pen and slow dealers, deduct 10% (or whatever amount you estimate) from your 2-hour expectation. Then decide if your time is worth that much. The penetration isn't a factor otherwise.
 
C

Cardcounter

Well-Known Member
#14
#14
The 2 to 1 payouts are only on suited blackjacks this happens 1 out of every 84 hands giving you an extra half than normal on those hands. That only shaves .6% of the house edge. Hay that game is not that bad!
 
T

The Chaperone

Well-Known Member
#15
#15
Wow 2 hours? They are really cutting back lol. Don't worry I just got home and will be taking some time off :)

I generally agree with who345's post above although I'm not sure he did the ES part right since ES is only vs. Ace in this game.

Either way, you have a decent edge off the top and with 50k, you can safely bet 2x100 at any positive or near neutral count (-1 or -2 RC okay). Penetration actually does affect your win rate quite a bit in these games. I would agree with Southpaw about pen not mattering much (other than game speed) if your edge was greater than say 1 or 1.5%, but anything less than 1%, you would prefer good penetration just like when our disadvantage is <1%.
 
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