Counting or basic strategy for recreational players ?

UK-21

Well-Known Member
#1
As I may have mentioned in the past, Mrs N and I are saving our pennies in order to visit Sin City, hopefully sometime this year.

Having seen the movie "21", where the counters who are caught get a bashing, and read a little about "heat" and "backrooming", she's somewhat concerned about my wanting to count and has said she thinks I should stick with BS at the table mins. So the dilemma is; do the counting thing and make it a working holiday with the risk of getting backed off, or play BS and not have to keep one eye on the PB, worry about spreading the bets too wide or making deviations from BS as the count shifts. When she visited LV some years back one of the group was told he couldn't play BJ in one of the larger strip hotels - he wasn't counting, or even playing tight BS, just raising his bets as he was winning. Although it's clear now it was no big deal, she said he did wonder whether he would be escorted off the premises if he went back there (so they didn't) and everywhere else he visited he was conscious of it happening again. We don't have all of that $#it here in the UK.

I'll probably play $5 and $10 tables, so at most will be playing $800/hr - taking the EVs, the difference between BS (losing $4) and counting (winning 2units = $20) isn't that great bearing in mind the variance inherrent in the game and the overall cost of the trip from the UK. I'll probably take $2,000 to play with which is holiday money I'm not expecting to come home with (so anything I do bring home will be a bonus). Looking at the WoO's RoR table, it seems that after 37.5hrs of play there's a 5% chance of losing $1,370 (assuming $10 flat betting) and less than a 1% chance of losing the lot.

So I'm in two minds as to whether the counting thing is really worth the hassle, and may just save it for the last day or two - having also experienced seeing 8 and 16 unit bets get consistently swept up at high counts (I play 1-8), I'm also concerned that an adverse swing will see a big chunk of the pocket money going south early on - which'll put a dampner on things (can't think of anything worse than being in LV and not having any money to play with just two days into a week's visit??)

Does anyone have any words of wisdom on the matter to offer ?

On another point, are there any $10 games on the strip?
 

johndoe

Well-Known Member
#2
I'd say don't worry about it, and do whatever you think is most fun. For shoe games, spreading 1-8 in red is nothing; I'd be stunned if any strip property even raised their eyebrows at this. Going 1-12 or more in green is pretty universally tolerated in my experience, as long as you aren't being too obvious.

As for $10 tables, check the trop, and maybe the MGM properties (Grand, Monte Carlo, etc.) off-hours. They'll almost certainly be H17 though.

But don't let it ruin your vacation by (her) worrying. You're talking about an EV of $5-$10/hr anyhow, and variance will swamp everything. The value of your pleasure is probably more important here.

But if you want to play to win you very well can without problems IMO.
 

Pro21

Well-Known Member
#3
The best advice I can give you is get a copy of Comp City, and check out the Las Vegas Adviser. You aren't going to make any money counting but you might be able to gain some considerable ev through comps and coupons.
 

ChefJJ

Well-Known Member
#4
In my opinion, don't bother counting if it isn't second nature to you. Flat bet or something like that with perfect basic strategy, have some good drinks, and enjoy yourself in Vegas. But if you are proficient in counting the cards down, a reduced spread might not hurt too bad, especially with respect to your two concerns: variance and heat.

But that's just an off-the-cuff response, and I wholly agree with Pro21. Get yo comps. :joker:

good luck
 

callipygian

Well-Known Member
#5
newb99 said:
she's somewhat concerned about my wanting to count and has said she thinks I should stick with BS at the table mins
Will you counting cards lower her enjoyment of your (plural) vacation? IANA marriage counselor, but if the answer is yes, the course of action seems pretty obvious.

Feelings aside, her not enjoying herself is probably going to be long term EV negative for you. If she's hovering over your shoulder as you play because she doesn't trust you, that's probably worse than just playing BS.

newb99 said:
are there any $10 games on the strip?
Absolutely every casino will have $10 games at some time and most will have $10 games all the time. Sometimes the $10 games will be bad (6:5 BJ, CSM, etc) but even on a Friday/Saturday night I'd be surprised if you found two adjacent casinos with no $10 options.

If it's your first time to Vegas, my advice would be just to make sure it's an enjoyable trip. Eat at a nice restaurant, see a fancy show, have teh sex, and if you don't get a chance to play blackjack don't sweat it.
 

bj bob

Well-Known Member
#6
callipygian said:
Will you counting cards lower her enjoyment of your (plural) vacation? IANA marriage counselor, but if the answer is yes, the course of action seems pretty obvious.

If it's your first time to Vegas, my advice would be just to make sure it's an enjoyable trip. Eat at a nice restaurant, see a fancy show, have the sex, and if you don't get a chance to play blackjack don't sweat it.
Agree with Calli here. Stick with KY+BS= +EV! :devil::devil:
 

StudiodeKadent

Well-Known Member
#7
newb99 said:
As I may have mentioned in the past, Mrs N and I are saving our pennies in order to visit Sin City, hopefully sometime this year.

Having seen the movie "21", where the counters who are caught get a bashing, and read a little about "heat" and "backrooming", she's somewhat concerned about my wanting to count and has said she thinks I should stick with BS at the table mins. So the dilemma is; do the counting thing and make it a working holiday with the risk of getting backed off, or play BS and not have to keep one eye on the PB, worry about spreading the bets too wide or making deviations from BS as the count shifts.
If you are just playing recreationally, then stick with playing perfect BS and comp-whore.

Also, if you are not counting, play against a CSM. On a 6-deck game, a CSM lowers the house edge by 0.02%, plus it also lowers the variance because the composition of the deck remains constant.

Also, I think you can get $15 S17 tables at Mandalay Bay. So if you would rather play S17 than H17 and can spare an extra $5 per hand in minimum bet, that may be an option.
 

UK-21

Well-Known Member
#8
callipygian said:
If it's your first time to Vegas, my advice would be just to make sure it's an enjoyable trip. Eat at a nice restaurant, see a fancy show, have the sex, and if you don't get a chance to play blackjack don't sweat it.
.

Don't need to visit LV for the sex, although if you're referring to the variety that comes served up as room service I think Mrs N may have a few words to say on the matter - in which case the discussions around BJ will fade into the background. I'll stick with the food, shows and keeping Mrs N on side.

Thanks for your words of wisdom everyone.
 

FLASH1296

Well-Known Member
#9
I'd heed and adhere to the excellent advice proffered by Callipygian and StudiodeKadent






"callipygian" |ˌkaləˈpijēən| (also callipygean)
[adjective]
Having well-shaped buttocks.
 

daddybo

Well-Known Member
#10
I know what they mean

newb99 said:
.

Don't need to visit LV for the sex, although if you're referring to the variety that comes served up as room service I think Mrs N may have a few words to say on the matter - in which case the discussions around BJ will fade into the background. I'll stick with the food, shows and keeping Mrs N on side.

Thanks for your words of wisdom everyone.

I'm a pretty naive guy.. but as far as sex... My wife says hotel sex is the best kind! ( I think so too!)

Have Fun!

db
 

bj bob

Well-Known Member
#11
daddybo said:
I'm a pretty naive guy.. but as far as sex... My wife says hotel sex is the best kind! ( I think so too!)

Have Fun!

db
Hell yeah! Just dress her in a French maid's getup while wearing a Laker's jersey and away you go!!! :whip::whip: Just don't forget about the 24 second clock.
 

tribute

Well-Known Member
#12
StudiodeKadent said:
Also, I think you can get $15 S17 tables at Mandalay Bay. So if you would rather play S17 than H17 and can spare an extra $5 per hand in minimum bet, that may be an option.

Mandalay Bay is a great place. I found $10 every time. If not, try Monte Carlo.
 

bjhack

Well-Known Member
#14
My thoughts are... if you haven't card-counted before, play BS, and make sure you have that under your belt.

Remember, variance is a b**ch.
 
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Blue Efficacy

Well-Known Member
#16
StudiodeKadent said:
If you are just playing recreationally, then stick with playing perfect BS and comp-whore.

Also, if you are not counting, play against a CSM. On a 6-deck game, a CSM lowers the house edge by 0.02%, plus it also lowers the variance because the composition of the deck remains constant.

Also, I think you can get $15 S17 tables at Mandalay Bay. So if you would rather play S17 than H17 and can spare an extra $5 per hand in minimum bet, that may be an option.
NO NO NO!

CSMs may give a negligible decrease in house edge, but the added hands per hour more than makes up for that. Please stop giving bad advice.
 

UK-21

Well-Known Member
#17
Ironic really . . . . not so long back I wrote an essay on why, IMHO, if there's a choice between playing a shoe and a CSM for BS players, they should also go for the shoe. Not only will it mean less hands per hour, but playing a shoe will mean there will be times (not that often admittedly) when the shuffle results in the cards having an advantageous composition (ie when it leaves an extra 18-20 low cards behind the cut-card, thereby providing a player advantage of around 1%+ish for the duration of that shoe).

I'll stick with the shoe games thanks.
 

StudiodeKadent

Well-Known Member
#18
Blue Efficacy said:
NO NO NO!

CSMs may give a negligible decrease in house edge, but the added hands per hour more than makes up for that. Please stop giving bad advice.
Again, I have heard mixed reports on the actual increase in speed given by CSMs. Some have argued the speed increase is almost nothing, wheras some argue that there is a significant increase.

Additionally, and please correct me if I am wrong here, but don't automatic shuffle machines (ASM's) mean that shuffling a shoe does not take nearly as much time as hand-shuffling the decks (thus increasing the overall hands-per-hour that can be dealt from a shoe by cutting down on reshuffle time)?
 

StudiodeKadent

Well-Known Member
#19
newb99 said:
Ironic really . . . . not so long back I wrote an essay on why, IMHO, if there's a choice between playing a shoe and a CSM for BS players, they should also go for the shoe. Not only will it mean less hands per hour, but playing a shoe will mean there will be times (not that often admittedly) when the shuffle results in the cards having an advantageous composition (ie when it leaves an extra 18-20 low cards behind the cut-card, thereby providing a player advantage of around 1%+ish for the duration of that shoe).

I'll stick with the shoe games thanks.
Do you have a link to this essay? I'd like to read it.

The cut-card effect you describe, where more low cards than usual are behind the cut-card, can also go both ways. There will also be times where more high cards than usual are behind the cut card.
 

UK-21

Well-Known Member
#20
You are quite right - it cuts both ways. So it's a toss up between a CSM with a marginal improvement over HE but much lower variance against it, or a shoe with greater variance both ways and less hands per hour being served up.

Here's the link to the essay I wrote. I've noticed a typo or two and I never got around to doing the re-write.

http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showthread.php?t=12360&highlight=CSM

I hope I've expressed myself clearly.

Regards,
 
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