Deal or No Deal?

[shadroch]

Was over my sisters for Christmas and my idiot cousin was there as well. I was talking to my Godson about Vegas when the idiot opined that counting cards was impossible.I said it wasn't and he went into a long lecture on casinos, luck, brains, courage and quite a few other things he knows nothing about. I should add he's a disbarred lawyer who has never been wrong about anything in his life.
He made me this proposal and gave me until the 27th to accept.
We play one on one. One hand at a time.
Dealer stands on all 17s, double any 2 cards, double after splits, resplit aces once, resplit other cards up to four hands. $1 minimum bet, $25 max bet.
Deal changes every other BJ, so each of us will be dealer about half the time.
We each start with $1,000 BR. We play until one is broke. Loser pays winner $5,000.
Deal or No Deal?

 

[moo321]

Was over my sisters for Christmas and my idiot cousin was there as well. I was talking to my Godson about Vegas when the idiot opined that counting cards was impossible.I said it wasn't and he went into a long lecture on casinos, luck, brains, courage and quite a few other things he knows nothing about. I should add he's a disbarred lawyer who has never been wrong about anything in his life.
He made me this proposal and gave me until the 27th to accept.
We play one on one. One hand at a time.
Dealer stands on all 17s, double any 2 cards, double after splits, resplit aces once, resplit other cards up to four hands. $1 minimum bet, $25 max bet.
Deal changes every other BJ, so each of us will be dealer about half the time.
We each start with $1,000 BR. We play until one is broke. Loser pays winner $5,000.
Deal or No Deal?

I'm guessing you have an aggregate, maybe 10% advantage. Pulling that out of my ass, but you'll have about 1-2% whether you're counting or dealing (he probably doesn't know basic) which would compound out to a stronger advantage.

If you have $50k or more in your bankroll, I'd probably do it. Make sure you know how to spot a mechanic, though. Being disbarred doesn't make me think he's too honest.

 

[jack.jackson]

Was over my sisters for Christmas and my idiot cousin was there as well. I was talking to my Godson about Vegas when the idiot opined that counting cards was impossible.I said it wasn't and he went into a long lecture on casinos, luck, brains, courage and quite a few other things he knows nothing about. I should add he's a disbarred lawyer who has never been wrong about anything in his life.
He made me this proposal and gave me until the 27th to accept.
We play one on one. One hand at a time.
Dealer stands on all 17s, double any 2 cards, double after splits, resplit aces once, resplit other cards up to four hands. $1 minimum bet, $25 max bet.
Deal changes every other BJ, so each of us will be dealer about half the time.
We each start with $1,000 BR. We play until one is broke. Loser pays winner $5,000.
Deal or No Deal?

So, the winner is determined by the first one that goes broke?

Remember also, that switching deals on a BJ, will break your advantage sometimes. Try to switch every other deck.

How many decks/pen? Do you plan on counting?

 

[Leaveawinner]

All that so someone get to go, "I told you so?". It's not worth it. Just pull up a chair and grab another beer. Of course by denying challenge will make you whimpier.

 

[PrinceDragon]

We play one on one. One hand at a time.
Dealer stands on all 17s, double any 2 cards, double after splits, resplit aces once, resplit other cards up to four hands. $1 minimum bet, $25 max bet.
Deal changes every other BJ, so each of us will be dealer about half the time.
We each start with $1,000 BR. We play until one is broke. Loser pays winner $5,000.
Deal or No Deal?

Interesting thread.Let me give this a try.

Let's assume the following is true:

1,Game rules:6 Decks S17 DOA DAS P4 NoRSA
2,One hand only
3,Min-Max:$1-25
4,Deal changes every other shoe
5,Pen=75% (Industry standard)
6,BR=$1000 for each player
7,You're straight counting(ie:not using other advanced technique)using Hilo spreading 1-25 optimally
8,Your cousin is betting the table min and use perfect BS(try to out-last you)
9,100 hands/hour (We all know we can get at least 200 in live casinos,BUT remember you guys aren't pro dealers)

Approx results:

You: WR=$4.36,Ave.bet=$3.71, Adv=1.71%, SD=$81/hr,
Expected results for 100 hours of play:1SD~(-$350)-(+$1200) 2SD~(-$1100)-(+$2000) 3SD~(-$1900)-($2800)

Cousin: WR=-$0.43,Ave.bet=$1,Adv=-0.43%,SD=$11.54/hr
ER for 100 hrs: -155 to 69 -270 to 184 -386 to 300

So,you are basically winning at $4.79/hr of play,with $1000 BR,it will take 1000/4.79=209 hours to finish him off,
Your expected WR for this bet=$5000/209~$24/hr

My Conclusion:
NO DEAL

First of all,I don't know about you,but my time is worth alot more than that.

Secondly,I had the impression that you don't like your cousin at the first place,so why put money in his pocket,just let him give away his money to the casinos,we need plopies

Lastly,take a real close look at the Expected Result.You might not win this contest after all due to.......Variance.
We all know that BJ is all about the long run.

YMMV

If you choose to play it,best of "Luck" to you and I hope you whip his a$$

 

[RJT]

I think the approaches mentioned above are interesting, but inheriently flawed in their approach.
Firstly you should be saying to you cousin that the chip leader is the victor after a set period of time not the first to bust. If busting is the end your cousin actually has an advantage over you. If you think about it all your cousin has to do is bet $1/hand, while you use a bet spread with your counting system. Your greater RoR gives you a far higher chance of busting out than his $1/hand system. The amount the winner ends up ahead at the end of the competetion is irrelevant, it only matters who doesn't bust out.
Something else that needs clarified - when you are dealing, are you paying the winnings out of your $1000 bank, or do you pay them from a house bank? If you are paying out of your own bank, that makes a big difference - and gives the player a big edge as well. If you're down to your last $50 and your cousin has $1900, all he has to do is use a progression and he'll have a very good chance of busting your. That control over bet size is a big advantage.
You should clarify these issues first, then i would think about this more as a tournament than a countable game. My instinct is that (assuming this is a house backed game rather than a player backed game) is that you want your cousin to go first and your strategy will be based on his actions. If he ends up down when you switch roles you want to bet the minimum, if he's up you want to bet big to catch up and once you do, drop to minimum bets. But this strategy assumes that your cousin isn't just an idiot gambler who's going to bet wildly whether he is ahead or behind. If he's going to do that, just bet small and wait for the enevitable to happen.
I'm sure Ken would have a better strategy, so you might want to send him a PM.

RJT.

 

[Canceler]

PD says it all...

My Conclusion:
NO DEAL
You might not win this contest after all due to.......Variance.
We all know that BJ is all about the long run.

This.^ Short-term results won't prove anything.

If you choose to play it,best of "Luck" to you and I hope you whip his a$$

Also this.^

 

[prankster]

First,Prince Dragon,what is meant by P4? O.K.-this disbarred lawyer sounds like the kind of "know it all" who will surely be splitting his tens at every opportunity.Smoke him!!!:joker:

 

[daddybo]

I would do it if I didn't have to deal. (Especially if it's Single or Double deck with decent rules/pen) If he's proving card counting doesn't work, he should always be the dealer. If the final payoff is 5k plus what you win from him... I would be happy to jump on it.

Let me know if you need a Proxy.

P.S. I wouldn't do it if I had to deal.

EDIT: Well, my dealing decision would be dependent on the rules/pen/decks. Assuming he doesn't know how to count. You would always have the advantage... but if he can play BS.. then you are dragging it out by dealing with good rules and speeding it up with bad rules.

 

[jack.jackson]

Oh ya, Shad!!!! Dont forget, that, after you take his Money, AKA ($5,000) you have to split it up with everybody thats helped you in this thread :joker:

 

[Canceler]

Oh ya, Shad!!!! Dont forget, that, after you take his Money, AKA ($5,000) you have to split it up with everybody thats helped you in this thread :joker:

YES!! Even with those of us who advised you not to do it! :laugh:

 

[bj bob]

Go for Shad!

You should be able to eat this guy for lunch, especially if you set up the perfect parameters. Here's the key: Since this gentleman denies the efficacy of card counting, set up the "pure" BJ game, i.e. SD,S-17, DOA, DAS,RSA(1). In this case you will have the full advantage of the count more often and, if he's dumb enough to deal through the entire deck, you'll have the end play absolute count. Even in a short session, with these rules, you'll clean his clock.
Playing single deck, you'll probably want to rotate deals every 3-5 decks to make it flow. Good luck!

 

[1357111317]

Yeah if its a SD game deeply dealt (Why not save time on shuffling if card counting doesnt work) you will destroy him with a 1-25 spread. Just deal one deck each and switch. If he doesnt know basic stratagy you will kill him. I wouldn't even spread 1-25 in this situation, just go 1-5 so there is no chance of him winning.

 

[PrinceDragon]

Shad:
Well,It's 28th now,update?