Decision Point

[assume_R]

After months and months of practice (and playing in real conditions), I am confident my game is at a level where I can comfortably make money at a casino.

However, I come to a decision point. My bankroll is not replenishable (I am a student) and the games near me (NJ) are not as good as perhaps other places.

And I look at my options, and realize if I want to keep my RoR to a reasonable level, I can't make much money. If I want to make $10 an hour, my RoR is fine. However, when I start pushing the limits to $20 an hour or higher, my RoR starts to really rise to uncomfortable levels.

And I think - I can easily make $15 or $20 an hour at least just waiting tables at a nice quiet restaurant near me. I don't need the thrill - I am here (like I assume most others are) to make money. I do enjoy the mathematical challenge and this is a great hobby for me, but the question of if I want to risk so much of my albeit limited funds on it.

As an aside, yes I know all about wonging, optimal betting, R.A. indices, optimal multiple hands, etc. etc. and all the ways to reduce risk - trust me having the knowledge and being 100% informed has never been an issue.

And I'm not scared of the inevitable swings at all - it's more of is it worth it for something in which I can get more money at a reasonably comfy part time job (I believe it's called the "certainty equivalent", or C.E.)

Ultimately the decision is up to me if I have the bankroll (right now in my life at least) & desire to stick with this, but I'd appreciate any comments from others who have been in this situation before (PM if you don't want to post online).

 

[SleightOfHand]

Like you said, CE would be the best measurement as to decide if you would rather work at a real job or play BJ (remember there are other costs in BJ including travel costs and opportunity cost).

 

[Bojack1]

After months and months of practice (and playing in real conditions), I am confident my game is at a level where I can comfortably make money at a casino.

However, I come to a decision point. My bankroll is not replenishable (I am a student) and the games near me (NJ) are not as good as perhaps other places.

And I look at my options, and realize if I want to keep my RoR to a reasonable level, I can't make much money. If I want to make $10 an hour, my RoR is fine. However, when I start pushing the limits to $20 an hour or higher, my RoR starts to really rise to uncomfortable levels.

And I think - I can easily make $15 or $20 an hour at least just waiting tables at a nice quiet restaurant near me. I don't need the thrill - I am here (like I assume most others are) to make money. I do enjoy the mathematical challenge and this is a great hobby for me, but the question of if I want to risk so much of my albeit limited funds on it.

As an aside, yes I know all about wonging, optimal betting, R.A. indices, optimal multiple hands, etc. etc. and all the ways to reduce risk - trust me having the knowledge and being 100% informed has never been an issue.

And I'm not scared of the inevitable swings at all - it's more of is it worth it for something in which I can get more money at a reasonably comfy part time job (I believe it's called the "certainty equivalent", or C.E.)

Ultimately the decision is up to me if I have the bankroll (right now in my life at least) & desire to stick with this, but I'd appreciate any comments from others who have been in this situation before (PM if you don't want to post online).

You know I never fully understood this line of thinking from part time "hobbyist" counters. I don't see the problem if you truly understand what the scenario is. First off, most hobbies are basically interests that cost money but bring enjoyment to those who choose to partake in it. So if bj is a hobby per say, and makes even a little money, and you enjoy it, I'd say its worth it.

Now lets not get the part time playing of bj confused with a part time job. Part time recreational bj play can at best be described as an investment and can be tracked as such. It cannot be used as a part time job as there is not always pay at the end of the week for your hours put in. So even a low paying part time job can of course show more consistent payoffs to start, but its not really a fair comparison. Hobbies and jobs are most times different things, as well as are investments and jobs. I have always found it odd when a low stakes player was discouraged from playing due to the fact more money could be made at a menial part time job. So what. If you need income every week, get a job. If you enjoy playing and consider it a hobby, then play away as long as the money needed to do it does not affect you or any others life negatively. Its that simple IMO.

 

[NightStalker]

you are right

Since you are here for money, better grab other high paying jobs. If you are here because you like being here, then probably you may consider staying here.. Blackjack is surely not high-paid job. There are various other options to invest same bankroll in order to get better returns. You may want to consider blackjack as part time job.

I am very well aware that Bj gives low return on my invested bankroll and it is very much time consuming. But still I'm here because I like being here. I enjoy the play irrespective of small hourly EV I gain.

It's all depends on your interest, necessity and capability.

 

[Sonny]

Why choose?

Why don't you do both? Take the waiter gig to pay the bills. Spend your days off at the casino building your bankroll. Any remaining free time should be spent looking for better jobs and finding better ways to beat the casino. At some point you will start making good money in one of those places. Even better if you can do it in both.

You've spent a lot of time building up your BJ skills. Obviously you are really into it. Don't quit just because your earnings are low. I spent my first year out of school as an unpaid Assistant Editor. By the end of the following year I was the Post-Production Supervisor for the whole company. If you're really into it, your skills will payoff one way or another.

-Sonny-

 

[Automatic Monkey]

You know I never fully understood this line of thinking from part time "hobbyist" counters. I don't see the problem if you truly understand what the scenario is. First off, most hobbies are basically interests that cost money but bring enjoyment to those who choose to partake in it. So if bj is a hobby per say, and makes even a little money, and you enjoy it, I'd say its worth it.

Now lets not get the part time playing of bj confused with a part time job. Part time recreational bj play can at best be described as an investment and can be tracked as such. It cannot be used as a part time job as there is not always pay at the end of the week for your hours put in. So even a low paying part time job can of course show more consistent payoffs to start, but its not really a fair comparison. Hobbies and jobs are most times different things, as well as are investments and jobs. I have always found it odd when a low stakes player was discouraged from playing due to the fact more money could be made at a menial part time job. So what. If you need income every week, get a job. If you enjoy playing and consider it a hobby, then play away as long as the money needed to do it does not affect you or any others life negatively. Its that simple IMO.

The problem with this is that if you always enjoy your part-time play, you're probably not doing it right. This is a very young man we're talking to who is capable of deriving a lot of enjoyment from his spare time.

AP is usually not enjoyable. The smoke, crowds, and abuse are not fun, the inevitable downswings are not fun. The skills of the game are rote and repetitive, not exactly stimulating for the evolved mind like a good duplicate bridge game is. As a very serious part-timer, if it wasn't for the money I wouldn't be anywhere near the casino. It just so happens that the smarter and more talented you are in general, the less appealing AP becomes as an option because of all the other options you have. Before I go on a mission I have to weigh the options. I can go on a trip with a $1500 EV and $300 in costs, or I can stay at home that weekend and work on my car or boat and save myself a $1500 repair bill. Easy decision for a smart AP.

So if the OP would rather wait tables for $20 per hour and a free meal with no risk than count cards in AC for $20 and a free meal and significant risk to his non-replenishable savings, who can blame him? It just shows a solid understanding of the math, which is admirable for a rookie.

 

[FLASH1296]

One's time has a value attached to it. It differs dramatically for many of us.

The realities of student life is that a relaxed, low-stress secure job is IMPORTANT.

Playing BJ isn't important.

A graduate student needs to have his sights set clearly on the future.

Not on trying to extract some modest profits from a casino.

If he will soon be earning big bucks as a professional person,

then the gain from counting cards will never exceed his "earned income"

Get Real. :whip:

 

[assume_R]

Thank you all for the good points, as that's exactly what I was looking for.

To respond to some of the questions:
1. Yes, I do enjoy it as a hobby and understand I don't "need" to make money at something to enjoy doing it.
2. I need to be realistic about my bankroll right now, and my RoR. I cannot expect to do this as a significant source of income, without a good chance of losing all my bankroll, thus self-destroying my longevity.
3. When I finish my PhD and have a replenishable income I will be much more inclined to play at the stakes I know I am capable of playing at.
4. Right now I've decided not to stop playing and practicing and learning and contributing (and playing low stakes ), because as I said before, this is a very fun hobby for me.

 

[Bojack1]

FLASH1296;182174]One's time has a value attached to it. It differs dramatically for many of us.

Yes, I agree with this.

The realities of student life is that a relaxed, low-stress secure job is IMPORTANT.

Debatable, but I can see your point.

Playing BJ isn't important.

That could be said about any hobby. My hobby involves me getting punched, kicked and choked. I would say that isn't important to most, but it matters in some sense to me. As long as the hobby is prioritized correctly with lifes neccessities, than its nobodys elses business if its important or not.

A graduate student needs to have his sights set clearly on the future.

I also agree with this.

Not on trying to extract some modest profits from a casino.

Why not? If you can have a healthy balance with lifes responsibilites and your hobbies, that actually will enhance the quality of life.

If he will soon be earning big bucks as a professional person,

then the gain from counting cards will never exceed his "earned income"

So what, thats not the goal. It does not sound as if the OP is looking to replace his future career garnered through his education, with playing BJ. It seems he wants to play BJ based on what disposable income he has at hand. Which at this time is not that great, and once settled into his future profession may be more.

Get Real. :whip:

This is whats real. Its not a preconceived notion. Its listening to the questions before the cookie cutter answer is given.

 

[StandardDeviant]

...And I'm not scared of the inevitable swings at all ...

That can only be because you really haven't fully experienced them yet - with a significant amount of money on the line.

 

[muppet]

ask your parents if they can spot you some money to play with

 

[countmein]

My initial goal is to not make a million dollars in BJ. I am intrigued by the numbers. I used to "gamble" and many times I got lucky. And I wasn't even playing basic strategy. I would gamble with $2500 per night (to me that's a lot of money). Some of my hands, with splits and doubles, were $2500. Looking back, I was stupid.

I have stopped playing BJ the past 2 years after deciding to become an AP. A few months ago, I decided to play the occasional basic strategy game or low-stakes counting to practice my skills.

I enjoy playing BJ, but I expect to play with the advantage. Starting this summer, I expect to play about 20 hours per week in Vegas, and my first milestone goal is $1000 per month or approx $250 per week. That's an avg. of $12.50 per hour. Not much to get too excited about (for me) but I will be thrilled to do that. I suppose I have the bankroll to do that easily. I make a very good amount of money doing IT Consulting and I have some money left to play with. Plus I have a nice amount of non-retirement money saved (not for the cards or anything else at this point).

Once I can become proficient in being an excellent solo earner, I will seek a team. I don't know if I will ever get there, but team play/investors is where the real money is. To me, real money is $50K+ while I am employed, and $200K+ otherwise. My expectations are way lower at this point - $12.50 per hour. But if you make $10 per hour playing (and learning to do what you love) then what can be better?

Remember, if you can avg $10 per hour, it can be $100 per hour if you increase your bankroll 10x.

Personally, if you don't need the BJ winnings, I think you should reinvest the winnings back into your bankroll so that you can get to the $100 per hour.

Good luck!

 

[assume_R]

That can only be because you really haven't fully experienced them yet - with a significant amount of money on the line.

I don't know - I kinda of resent that. The swings don't put me off at all. I understand the math better than most, and several others on this board can attest to that, especially those I've met in person. My emotions or willpowerer don't really play too much of a part in this.

I have nothing against you at all, but to imply I don't understand the risks or even swings with this game is unwarrantable.

That's all. I don't have much to add to what I've said before on this thread.

 

[FLASH1296]

CountMeIn,

With the risk of offending you, I must point out that you are mistaken when you say:

“Remember, if you can avg $10 per hour, it can be $100 per hour if you increase your bankroll 10x.“

Earning an average of $10 / hr. is TRIVIAL.
Earning $100 an hour, over time, is HARD.
The former you can play without heat.
The latter means that you are betting
high enough to generate significant heat.

 

[blackjack avenger]

It's Not Even a Close Decision

AssumeR

Using your numbers
$10 bj
at least $15 to $20 at a job?

The bj is only worth $5 an hour and possibly less.:joker::whip:

 

[Blue Efficacy]

Waiters really make $20 an hour?

 

[FLASH1296]

Actually, wait staff in “fine” restaurants can earn (as much as) $50/hr

 

[Machinist]

I don't know - I kinda of resent that. The swings don't put me off at all. I understand the math better than most, and several others on this board can attest to that, especially those I've met in person. My emotions or willpowerer don't really play too much of a part in this.

I have nothing against you at all, but to imply I don't understand the risks or even swings with this game is unwarrantable.

That's all. I don't have much to add to what I've said before on this thread.

There is a HUGE difference between understanding risks and really FEELING the risk...SD is very correct....If you have a respect for money... you will one day really feel variance...
Its kind of like having kids i think,, of which i never have had,,,I understand how people change when they have a kid... everthing for the babies type crap... but i also know i never can FEEL what they feel until i have a kid...
Most of us were young at one time???
Also a good job when you get out of college.... uh huh.... riiiightttt.... good luck... Even that is a tough row to hoe...
200,000 a year in NY city is a good living? Just what is a good living? Someday you will find that out... EXcellent questions tho,, i have no doubt that what ever you decide you will excell....
Keep asking questions,,, all through you life,,, you will go far...

Whew...........Machinist

 

[daddybo]

If you never get any emotion during play, you are either a cyborg or not playing with enough money..

(Lexapro helps) :laugh:

 

[Automatic Monkey]

If you never get any emotion during play, you are either a cyborg or not playing with enough money..

Absolutely correct. If you are treating this as an income, losing income due to chance is something you should be unhappy with, and "happy" and "unhappy" are within a standard deviation of each other in this game.

As long as the emotions do not affect your play, it is perfectly acceptable.