Disguising a large unit spread

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AnIrishmannot2brite

Well-Known Member
#21
#21
johnnyk421 said:
Staying on a 15 v dealer 7 with TC +4 "based upon intuition" is ludicrous. Claiming that "These show promise and a slightly higher level of accuracy than using pure statistics of probability." is even more stupid. The whole point of card carding is using probability to gain the highest EV possible. Unless you have a superpower to see what card is coming next, all you are being is a typical gambler, not a card counter. Keep all the records you want, but anyone can run a simulation and show you will lose money in the long run.
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One doesn't need to run a sim to see the invalidity and arrogance of this simple minded post.

Question 1: How often does one see a fifteen against dealer 7 or higher in a +4 count?

Answer: Maybe once per hour or less. Hit or stay doesn't give up a rat's rectum worth of EV on a wager with a near 50/50 percentage that you don't see but once an hour...

OK so I like to spend more of my time at a table with a weak dealer who lets me spread 20 to 1 and goes 80% of the way into the deck.

Question 2. Who freaking needs a level 2 count here? I'm shooting fish in a barrel while the other turkeys are learning a "system" that requires way too much thought. I'll bet these punks show up in preppie shorts and get called as counters before they even reach the tables.

This board is composed of some of the most naive young fools I've ever seen! And I think it long past time we call these sophomoric little twits out on their B/S.
 
psyduck

psyduck

Well-Known Member
#22
#22
AnIrishmannot2brite said:
In fact I've had good fortune making these calls and have recently felt comfortable enough to keep records of my hit vs. stay situations based upon intuition. These show promise and a slightly higher level of accuracy than using pure statistics of probability.
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Then why even bother with indices? Why not use all intuition and no index and win more?
 
Deathclutch

Deathclutch

Well-Known Member
#23
#23
AnIrishmannot2brite said:
One doesn't need to run a sim to see the invalidity and arrogance of this simple minded post.

Question 1: How often does one see a fifteen against dealer 7 or higher in a +4 count?

Answer: Maybe once per hour or less. Hit or stay doesn't give up a rat's rectum worth of EV on a wager with a near 50/50 percentage that you don't see but once an hour...

OK so I like to spend more of my time at a table with a weak dealer who lets me spread 20 to 1 and goes 80% of the way into the deck.

Question 2. Who freaking needs a level 2 count here? I'm shooting fish in a barrel while the other turkeys are learning a "system" that requires way too much thought. I'll bet these punks show up in preppie shorts and get called as counters before they even reach the tables.

This board is composed of some of the most naive young fools I've ever seen! And I think it long past time we call these sophomoric little twits out on their B/S.
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A level 2 count is too much thought? Counting by +2 and -2 is too much thought for you?

http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showthread.php?t=16410

You think your intuitions are stronger than math.

http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showthread.php?t=16205

Here you think you're playing 6:5 blackjack with a 30:1 spread when in reality you're actual spread is much smaller considering you're dropping $100 hands at neutral counts along with chasing your $10 losses by quadrupling them. On a side note a strategy similar to this could work, but I highly doubt you're using it correctly.


And now you've resorted to name calling . . . again.

Who's naive again?
 
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Jack_Black

Jack_Black

Well-Known Member
#25
#25
daddybo said:
Generally when using "rainbow" stacks and ramping up I'll collect my "junk" and announce I'm trying to get rid of it.
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D bo, us young whipper snappers utilize the euphemism of "my junk" to refer to male sexual organs. I'm not sure if you are aware of that, but please make note in the future to reduce freudian slips and social faux pas.:eek::laugh:
 
daddybo

daddybo

Well-Known Member
#26
#26
Jack_Black said:
D bo, us young whipper snappers utilize the euphemism of "my junk" to refer to male sexual organs. I'm not sure if you are aware of that, but please make note in the future to reduce freudian slips and social faux pas.:eek::laugh:
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I stand corrected!:laugh:
 
Sharky

Sharky

Well-Known Member
#27
#27
...is Ed too tall Jones, too tall???

AnIrishmannot2brite said:
.... Like whether to hit or stay at +4 T/C on a stiff fifteen vs dealer 7 or higher. In fact I've had good fortune making these calls and have recently felt comfortable enough to keep records of my hit vs. stay situations based upon intuition.
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if you are not hitting 15 vs 7,8, or 9 w/ tc+4 you are losing in the long run, now that's a fact.

you should be on that new Geico commercial..." do you think Ed too tall Jones, is too tall?"....." do you think AnIrishmannnot2brite, is not too bright?" :laugh:

in all seriousness, quit while you are ahead.
 
A

AnIrishmannot2brite

Well-Known Member
#28
#28
A forum (here) largely composed of small minded internet prix. Ruins it for everyone.

Here's what they're telling you kids: Spend all your time trying to scrape up all the extra .003% increases you can find and ignore the table with the really favorable rules and weak dealer...

"Penny wise and pound foolish".

Again: Typical small minded young punks with attitude problems.
 
N

Nynefingers

Well-Known Member
#29
#29
AnIrishmannot2brite said:
A forum (here) largely composed of small minded internet prix. Ruins it for everyone.

Here's what they're telling you kids: Spend all your time trying to scrape up all the extra .003% increases you can find and ignore the table with the really favorable rules and weak dealer...

"Penny wise and pound foolish".

Again: Typical small minded young punks with attitude problems.
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They aren't being "small minded internet prix"; they are trying to help you. You are telling us that deviating from basic strategy based on intuition or precognition in absence of an index is a good idea. You gave one specific example, and said correctly that it comes up infrequently, but the inference that we are making is that if you do this kind of voodoo stuff for 15 v. 7, you probably do it for at least a few other hands as well, and it will start to add up to a significant disadvantage for you. If you can't trust the math and probability, then you probably aren't cut out to be a card counter. There is no room for "intuition" if you hope to be successful. You have to put your full faith in the math.

They also aren't saying ignore the good playing conditions. Absolutely you should be seeking that out. But it is stupid to deviate from the strategy and give up EV because you have a hunch or a feeling about what card is going to come next. They aren't saying you have to play a complex higher level count with 80 indices to make money, but you also shouldn't voluntarily give up EV by deviating from BS in absence of an index. If you can learn a higher level count and/or more indices, all the better, but start with just following the strategy that you have already learned.

Depending on what all deviations you are making, "penny wise, pound foolish" could very well apply to your game. You are finding the right tables, but then giving away EV by playing your hunches. You are complaining about people bashing you or calling you names, but from what I've read it seems to be just the opposite. They are offering sincere advice (at least initially) and you accuse them of being trolls, fools, punks, and sophomoric twits. Is it any wonder that you are getting sarcastic replies now? Take a step back and try to see it from their perspective. The advice you've been given in this thread is generally good. Listen to it.
 
A

assume_R

Well-Known Member
#35
#35
Just feel like adding my 2cents here.

I forget which blackjack book I read it in, but in it the author mentions standing on 16v10 even at some low counts as a "cover play," because it's more important to stand at higher counts than to hit at lower counts, and could provide some additional cover if they pit is really watching. Not necessarily something I do, but just thought I'd mention it.

Also, several systems use rounded indices such as Snyder's Hi-Lo and KO Preferred and show positive EV.

So while the game is beatable using rounded indices, there is absolutely no evidence that anything except for the statistical probability will turn out in the long run.

Example:
6D,S17,DAS,$10-$100,75%,$10k
KO Preferred (rounded indices) = $16.44/hr win rate, 13.6% RoR, 16.40 SCORE
KO Full (non-rounded indices) = $16.75/hr win rate, 12.8% RoR, 17.18 SCORE

Rounded indices still let games be beatable, but you will have a higher RoR & lower win rate.

I couldn't find an "ESP" option in CVCX, but I'll try to run those sims when I get a chance :laugh:
 
daddybo

daddybo

Well-Known Member
#36
#36
assume_R said:
I couldn't find an "ESP" option in CVCX, but I'll try to run those sims when I get a chance :laugh:
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Try Control > ALT > Shift > E . ( Control > ALT > Shift > P for progressions) :laugh:
 
kewljason

kewljason

Well-Known Member
#38
#38
assume_R said:
Wow, that actually worked! My RoR went down to 0% when I added the precog option! :p;)
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The "small minded punks with attitude" club continues to grow and we are going to need a bigger meeting room. :rolleyes:
 
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