Doubling hard 12 question
- Thread starter Blue Efficacy
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You can find that answer here.http://www.bjstrat.net/cgi-bin/cdca_web.exe
I believe he's saying that the next card ONLY is the one that's not an ace or a face; and once he takes that card, the deck becomes normal again; and the dealer has a normal chance of busting. The cdca on that website is a VERY valuable tool, but there doesn't seem to be a way to make it give the specific information that the OP is looking for.
It will let you take the aces and faces out of the ENTIRE deck, but if that were the case; it would be INSANE to double.
It will let you take the aces and faces out of the ENTIRE deck, but if that were the case; it would be INSANE to double.
Here's a question: how much do you lose in EV for doubling for much less for cover? I once was playing a game and the pit boss joked around and told me to double my 12 (against a 2). I was going to hit and then stand anyway, and I doubled for $2 on a $25 bet. The pit boss laughed and thought I was the stupidest player and that bought me a whole bunch of cover for about 2 hours. So how much i lost for doubling for less on a 12 (when you might just hit and then stand anyway?)
Edit: I think I was able to answer my own question. EV = -.2519 for hitting 10,2 vs. 2 off the top. So I lost an additional $0.50. Betting $100 at a 1.5% advantage, that would be a third of that $100 bet's EV.
Edit: I think I was able to answer my own question. EV = -.2519 for hitting 10,2 vs. 2 off the top. So I lost an additional $0.50. Betting $100 at a 1.5% advantage, that would be a third of that $100 bet's EV.
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I am thinking of doubling down a hard 12 for $1 as a way to tip the dealer, since I would anyway only hit 12 vs 2/3 only once. I'd look more like a gambler "asking" for the dealer to give me a low card by tipping, since ploppies have this false notion that tipping the dealer can affect what cards they get. Plus it will brand me as an idiot if I do it early in my session, especially if the count is low enough to justify hitting 12 vs 6. Normally I don't want people to think I am an idiot, but playing blackjack is an exception in which I want to be seen as an idiot.
If you know the next card is not going to be a ten, why would you want to risk more money doubling down the 12 since it's likely an extremely low count. I would have found an excuse to stop playing long before that extremely low count presents itself to me.
If you know the next card is not going to be a ten, why would you want to risk more money doubling down the 12 since it's likely an extremely low count. I would have found an excuse to stop playing long before that extremely low count presents itself to me.
Scheez! What is the world coming to, anyway! :cool2:actually i dont think double a 12 against a 2 is a good cover
since even the most stupid player wont do this
so this is an abnormal action for the casino
if u luckily double a 8 or 9 , then they will pay more attention on your further action since they think u can even guess the next card is a 8 or 9 is an top expert player rather than what u think
since even the most stupid player wont do this
so this is an abnormal action for the casino
if u luckily double a 8 or 9 , then they will pay more attention on your further action since they think u can even guess the next card is a 8 or 9 is an top expert player rather than what u think
The thing is, whatever you do will be taken in context of your entire game. Don't think that pits and eyes have never heard of camouflage, although I've heard them refer to it as "masking". If you have a couple of anomalies and all the rest is perfect basic strategy, wouldn't you be suspicious? I know you already know all this, and I'm sure you are a good enough actor to pull it off-- I just thought it begged stating.
Doubling a hard 12 against a 2 will draw attention (bad) and possibly cause someone, who other wise would pay no attention to you (good), to suddenly start checking your play to see if it is consistent with your "stupid" play (bad). If you convince them you are stupid (good), all that will end anyway when you spread to max bet (do I hear "major tell"?).
So your camo needs to be more the insignificant, but off bs, moves that don't cause much in terms of EV, but show a consistent failure to follow perfect bs, and your real cover should focus more on disguising when you increase your bets. With hit and run, you need neither wrong bs moves nor betting misdirection-- but you will need to stay constantly on the move.
Doubling a hard 12 against a 2 will draw attention (bad) and possibly cause someone, who other wise would pay no attention to you (good), to suddenly start checking your play to see if it is consistent with your "stupid" play (bad). If you convince them you are stupid (good), all that will end anyway when you spread to max bet (do I hear "major tell"?).
So your camo needs to be more the insignificant, but off bs, moves that don't cause much in terms of EV, but show a consistent failure to follow perfect bs, and your real cover should focus more on disguising when you increase your bets. With hit and run, you need neither wrong bs moves nor betting misdirection-- but you will need to stay constantly on the move.
For the most part; pit critters have little clue about the specifics of counting, other than the "glamor" stories they've heard, and the fact that they've been told to watch for people spreading their bets. A large percentage of them think that there's an index point at which a counter is SUPPOSED to double on 12!
I've seen it more than once: Ploppy doubles down on hard 12 and is unlucky enough to get a 9. From that point on the pit will be watching that player VERY closely, figuring one of two things: Either the player is very stupid, or the player KNOWS something. My point is; a bad player can get away with doubling on a breaking hand, whereas a PROFESSIONAL usually cannot. If you choose to make this play, you WILL draw attention and you WILL be watched, for at least a period of time. In my career I PERSONALLY have drawn more heat from doubling on a breaking hand than from any other play, and that includes making 100% correct insurance bets for 8 hours straight!
My opinion: Do it when you have next-card information that gives you tremendous +EV. Don't do it for some BS cover play that's costing you a few cents. Make sure the reward is worth the risk.
I've seen it more than once: Ploppy doubles down on hard 12 and is unlucky enough to get a 9. From that point on the pit will be watching that player VERY closely, figuring one of two things: Either the player is very stupid, or the player KNOWS something. My point is; a bad player can get away with doubling on a breaking hand, whereas a PROFESSIONAL usually cannot. If you choose to make this play, you WILL draw attention and you WILL be watched, for at least a period of time. In my career I PERSONALLY have drawn more heat from doubling on a breaking hand than from any other play, and that includes making 100% correct insurance bets for 8 hours straight!
My opinion: Do it when you have next-card information that gives you tremendous +EV. Don't do it for some BS cover play that's costing you a few cents. Make sure the reward is worth the risk.
I agree on most pit critters. A casino is lucky to get a pit person who can both count and take care of all the other business placed on him; counting is not an essential job skill. OTOH, for eyes, it is, or rather it should be, an essential job skill.
As for heat generation, you should be able to create enough steam to turn a small turbine. Imagine a player playing near perfect basic strategy and doubling down on hard 12's, even for less. What is wrong with this picture? :laugh:
As for heat generation, you should be able to create enough steam to turn a small turbine. Imagine a player playing near perfect basic strategy and doubling down on hard 12's, even for less. What is wrong with this picture? :laugh:
All the cheap camo plays in the world will not cover the fact that you increased from 1 unit to 10, 12 or 15 units when the count jumped to +4. I will disagree with the experts, except to the extent that cheap camo plays generally gets them to let their guard down UNTIL you announce your real intent. Of course it does matter what the game min is ($5 or $50), and also what the size of the store is, as to what will GRAB their attention. For cheap camo, not hitting hard 12 vs 12/13 will both please the ploppies at the table and assure the educated eye (not necessarily the one in the sky) that you are not a pro player. Always hitting your hard 12s will usually get the table's attention (especially if you're at 3rd base) and alert the educated eye that you don't make this most common mistake (other ones are A/7 vs 9, 10 and A), which I do correctly announcing that I read it in the book if anyone gripes.