Dumb Casino?

[BjSkeaver20]

Hey all. Brand new to posting on this forum, not new to reading it. If you want to skip my introduction, you can skip the next 2 paragraphs.

Just to start it off, I have been playing BJ seriously for around 6 months. I realize this is not a long time at all, but I have invested every single minute I have free to educating myself on this great (but variating) "job" of being an AP.

As of right now, I wouldn't consider myself a full AP, just a BS player that knows how to count. I don't have the indices mastered yet, so I just play BS with counting. I use the Zen count system on fairly good shoes. (6d, H17, DAS, DA2, No surrender, 5.5/6(this helps ALOT!)).

I just found out, until January, that a casino close to me (5 hour drive) with the exact same specs of dealing, is offering a game that seems VERY profitable to me.

The casino is offering a "BJ Benefit" game. This means that, on getting a Natural, you get your 3:2, as well as your original bet back. Meaning, you get 5:2 on blackjack! I can imagine that this would send my EV through the roof! The only downside is the spread is limited to 5-50, but I have a friend that can play BS that I can backbet on to make sure of a 5-100 game if possible.

My question is, why would a casino do this? This would have to kill their intake value. Is it worth the road trip to make a 3 day trip down there for this?

 

[irobinson]

Because they think people are going to bet bigger (and stuipder) trying to get a natural. It must be the only reason for their thinking. And they are probably right.

 

[BjSkeaver20]

So, out of curiosity, is this worth making the road trip to go to? It's in a small reserve, with only 2 blackjack tables, one pit, etc in Northern Manitoba, Canada.

 

[Lonesome Gambler]

Yes, and check before you go because this promotion won't last long.

 

[irobinson]

Yes, and check before you go because this promotion won't last long.

I second this.

 

[irobinson]

If a true AP came in they (casino) would get smoked. I wonder if they even have the staff to counter AP's.

 

[shadroch]

Why wouldn't you get your original bet back?
At any casino, you bet $10. You get a BJ and they pay you $15 plus you keep your original $10.
What am i missing?

 

[Blue Efficacy]

I think he means you get another even money payment on top of the 3:2

 

[BjSkeaver20]

It is a small casino, and the "pit boss" is just an entire floor manager. They are offering 3:2 + original payout, so 5:2. If it's a suited BJ, its paying 3:2 + 3x Original payout. So say with a 50 dollar bet, BJ would pay 75+50, or suited would be 75+150.

The casino is advertising it for the next 2 months, I doubt they will last that long there. You can be as open about your spreads as you want, and with such deep penetration, even a rookie like me has to be able to see good positives in this. Assuming proper count, and I18, with a 3k bankroll, I could probably run a 1-10 spread, ramping up quite fast, no? (+1=2 units, +2=4 units, etc.)

 

[ycming]

For a shoe game with H17, may be use a 1-12 or 1-16 spread?

And keep it at 1 unit at +1, as the advantage don't come till +2.

Am using a 1-12 in the EHNC like this:

+2: 3 unit
+3: 6 unit
+4(or above): 12 unit

But i always spread to 2 hands when ever possible to this:

+2: 2 hands of 2 units
+3: 2 hands of 4.5 units
+4(or above): 2 hands of 6 units

the reason that to spread to 2 hands is that you are putting more money on table with the ame risk, according to blackjack attack, when you spread to 2 hands it should be 73% of what you going to bet on one box, then 57% if you want to spread to 3 boxes.

Ming

 

[London Colin]

Misunderstanding?

It is a small casino, and the "pit boss" is just an entire floor manager. They are offering 3:2 + original payout, so 5:2. If it's a suited BJ, its paying 3:2 + 3x Original payout. So say with a 50 dollar bet, BJ would pay 75+50, or suited would be 75+150.

Are you sure this isn't just a poorly worded suited-BJ promotion? i.e. "3:2 plus original" payout is the entirely normal payout for a blackjack, and just a suited blackjack gets a bonus?

Even just a 2:1 BJ promotion wipes out the house edge, addding 2.26% to the player's EV, compared to the standard 3:2 payment. I believe that means 5:2 would add 4.52%

Even the ploppiest of ploppies would be playing at an advantage.

The casino is advertising it for the next 2 months, I doubt they will last that long there. You can be as open about your spreads as you want, and with such deep penetration, even a rookie like me has to be able to see good positives in this. Assuming proper count, and I18, with a 3k bankroll, I could probably run a 1-10 spread, ramping up quite fast, no? (+1=2 units, +2=4 units, etc.)

For a shoe game with H17, may be use a 1-12 or 1-16 spread?

And keep it at 1 unit at +1, as the advantage don't come till +2.

Am using a 1-12 in the EHNC like this:

+2: 3 unit
+3: 6 unit
+4(or above): 12 unit

But i always spread to 2 hands when ever possible to this:

+2: 2 hands of 2 units
+3: 2 hands of 4.5 units
+4(or above): 2 hands of 6 units

the reason that to spread to 2 hands is that you are putting more money on table with the ame risk, according to blackjack attack, when you spread to 2 hands it should be 73% of what you going to bet on one box, then 57% if you want to spread to 3 boxes.

Ming

If the game is as described, surely you should just be flat betting a large amount. (And maybe reduce your bet size a little in very negative counts?)

 

[johndoe]

If the game is as described, surely you should just be flat betting a large amount. (And maybe reduce your bet size a little in very negative counts?)

Exactly. Especially with a small table max; just sit there and max it out continually. It would have to be a heck of a negative count to do anything different.

That's assuming the promo is as described. I'm not so sure, and wouldn't want to drive 5 hours unless I was.

 

[BjSkeaver20]

It actually is as described. I have a friend that went last night and played at it, called me and told me I need to make a trip home to play. So, if I went and flat bet, say 25 (I'm scared to destroy my bankroll, 2000 will only play me 40 hands of 50, 80 of 25), and wonged out when the count hit, say, -4TC, I could probably make a killing at this promotion, assuming I actually play smart, etc.

 

[iCountNTrack]

the game is definitely worth the drive, opportunities like this one are very rare, you dont even need to worry about spreading your bets, just flat-bet til there is no tomorrow, with an eighty unit bankroll the ROR is about 1%

 

[irobinson]

Even the ploppiest of ploppies would be playing at an advantage.

Are you sure about that?

 

[SleightOfHand]

Even just a 2:1 BJ promotion wipes out the house edge, addding 2.26% to the player's EV, compared to the standard 3:2 payment. I believe that means 5:2 would add 4.52%

I believe thats a 6.81% for a 3-1 BJ.

 

[BjSkeaver20]

I will have to make this trip. I just can't justify leaving the casino I am currently working, they have no objections me back-betting, or wonging out of a shoe once it hits south and just standing and counting.

If you want more info about the location, etc, send me a PM!

 

[EmeraldCityBJ]

The simple fact that this thread exists will likely mean that this game will get burned out long before its time. Even if the casino doesn't monitor these boards, it will motivate enough APs to make the trip up there and destroy the game.

If the game was not broadcast, it may have survived for awhile. Even with a small basic strategy edge off the top, the casino will still make money off the ploppies. The ploppies won't be playing basic strategy and will make enough mistakes that the game is still -EV for them. Most ploppies will also come with too small a bankroll and will likely tap out before realizing the edge this game has to offer.

 

[StandardDeviant]

The simple fact that this thread exists will likely mean that this game will get burned out long before its time. Even if the casino doesn't monitor these boards, it will motivate enough APs to make the trip up there and destroy the game.

Yep.

I thought one of the rules of this forum was not to post details of specific games?!

 

[21gunsalute]

The simple fact that this thread exists will likely mean that this game will get burned out long before its time. Even if the casino doesn't monitor these boards, it will motivate enough APs to make the trip up there and destroy the game.

If the game was not broadcast, it may have survived for awhile. Even with a small basic strategy edge off the top, the casino will still make money off the ploppies. The ploppies won't be playing basic strategy and will make enough mistakes that the game is still -EV for them. Most ploppies will also come with too small a bankroll and will likely tap out before realizing the edge this game has to offer.

Unless they're pulling Aces from the shoe.