EV...Am I calculating this right?

[Remember Remember]

Ok so I'm using the Ben Franklin Count/Revere Point modified as posted by Automatic Monkey for a H17 game (except never split 10s). The conditions of the game are 8D, H17, LS, DAS, 75% pen, never take insurance, 4 players, and 100 hands/hour. The bet spread I used was:

TC<-2: Wong out
TC=-2...25
TC=-1...25
TC=0...35
TC=1...55
TC=2...2x75
TC=3...2x100
TC>=4...2x125

After running a simulation, I got a win/hour (100 hands) of $27.59 which seems almost too high to me. But anyways, I'd appreciate if someone can just eyeball this and see if it's alright.

 

[kewljason]

Ok so I'm using the Ben Franklin Count/Revere Point modified as posted by Automatic Monkey for a H17 game (except never split 10s). The conditions of the game are 8D, H17, LS, DAS, 75% pen, never take insurance, 4 players, and 100 hands/hour. The bet spread I used was:

TC<-2: Wong out
TC=-2...25
TC=-1...25
TC=0...35
TC=1...55
TC=2...2x75
TC=3...2x100
TC>=4...2x125

After running a simulation, I got a win/hour (100 hands) of $27.59 which seems almost too high to me. But anyways, I'd appreciate if someone can just eyeball this and see if it's alright.

1 unit/100 hands, looks about right to me for that game and conditions. That is a rate most AP's would not find acceptable, BTW.

What does need tweeking is your bet ramp. You are raising your wagers too early. You don't want to put anything except a minimum wager out until you begin to have an adavtage, which for this game is going to be a TC of about 1.5. So you should not begin to raise your wager until TC +2. At TC 0 ($35) and TC +1 ($55) you are still playing at a disadvantage, so raising your wager in those situations just adds to the amount that you must overcome later on, when the count is higher to show a profit. If you re-run your sim with $25 wagers at TC 0 and TC 1, the win rate will increase pretty significantly.

 

[Remember Remember]

1 unit/100 hands, looks about right to me for that game and conditions. That is a rate most AP's would not find acceptable, BTW.

What does need tweeking is your bet ramp. You are raising your wagers too early. You don't want to put anything except a minimum wager out until you begin to have an adavtage, which for this game is going to be a TC of about 1.5. So you should not begin to raise your wager until TC +2. At TC 0 ($35) and TC +1 ($55) you are still playing at a disadvantage, so raising your wager in those situations just adds to the amount that you must overcome later on, when the count is higher to show a profit. If you re-run your sim with $25 wagers at TC 0 and TC 1, the win rate will increase pretty significantly.

Thanks for your help kewljason; I really appreciate it. If I use this strategyy, it would be at a home casino (the only playable one within a good two+ hours drive). So in order to increase my life at this store, I simulated that particular betting ramp. I know it would otherwise be foolish to bet at a disadvantage (btw my sim shows me holding a very slight advantage at TC +1).

 

[kewljason]

Thanks for your help kewljason; I really appreciate it. If I use this strategyy, it would be at a home casino (the only playable one within a good two+ hours drive). So in order to increase my life at this store, I simulated that particular betting ramp. I know it would otherwise be foolish to bet at a disadvantage (btw my sim shows me holding a very slight advantage at TC +1).

I guess LS brings it close to +1. I would have thought the point at which it switched into positive territory was above 1, which is why I said, I wouldn't begin to raise until at least 1.5 or 2, if you use whole numbers. Doesn't really matter. Whether you have a tiny advantage or disadvantage at TC +1, it really does no good to raise at that point. You aren't going to change your winrate but a penny or two and are going to negatively effect variance. Definitely you should change that 0 count wager back to $25. I know it doesn't seem like much of a difference $25 to $35 but it is. The majority of hands are played at 0 and you are at a disadvantage. You don't want to wager any more than minimum. It will make a big difference on your sim results.

 

[The Suburbs]

Ok so I'm using the Ben Franklin Count/Revere Point modified as posted by Automatic Monkey for a H17 game (except never split 10s). The conditions of the game are 8D, H17, LS, DAS, 75% pen, never take insurance, 4 players, and 100 hands/hour. The bet spread I used was:

TC<-2: Wong out
TC=-2...25
TC=-1...25
TC=0...35
TC=1...55
TC=2...2x75
TC=3...2x100
TC>=4...2x125

After running a simulation, I got a win/hour (100 hands) of $27.59 which seems almost too high to me. But anyways, I'd appreciate if someone can just eyeball this and see if it's alright.

I don't think 100 hands/hr with 3 other people at the table is realistic, unless you have a speed demon for a dealer. I think you'd be lucky to get 75 hands/hr. That will cut your EV by 25%.

Also, as KewlJason said, you're still at a disadvantage at TC = 1 (.57 house edge or so with that game), so there's no point in betting more than the minimum. I'd say the only good reason to start ramping up your bet at an even/slightly disadvantaged game is to make your max bet seem slightly less conspicuous or to clear the way for a bigger spread. That is, as long as your BR can handle additional variance.

That being said, I don't know if a spread of less than 1-12 makes that game worth your time unless you scout for better pen or wong out more aggressively.