fallout from a big win

kewljason

Well-Known Member
Lonesome Gambler said:
I apologize in advance if I missed a few points here, as I didn't read the entire thread closely. Here are my thoughts, for what they're worth:

1. You play full-time in Vegas at medium stakes. You experienced a backoff. Not a big deal. I don't mean to sound insensitive at all, but it seems like you're worrying way too much about something that's going to happen every once in a while. Re-evaluating your play and trying to find areas for improvement to prevent future backoffs is certainly wise in this case, but I don't think you need to lose any sleep over it.

2. Do you play unrated? If so, then this is nothing. The circumstances of the backoff would imply that this guy just wanted to save himself some heat and wasn't really interested in ratting you out to everyone else. If you're playing rated, he may have still put a note in the system, but if you were unrated, you're fine. In fact, as mentioned before, making max bets throughout a whole shoe (not very much spreading) doesn't give surveillance much to work with if they don't have a player ID to match previous footage with.

3. Betting big off the top, as you seem to agree, is a waste of money. If anyone actually buys that bit of outdated cover, I would be shocked. And betting big as a bluff off the top won't disguise the strong betting and playing correlation that will be easily observed throughout several shoes when doing a tape review, which is what you should be worried about in the first place. That kind of cover play is certain to lose you money and not very likely to win you any longevity, in my opinion.

In summary, brush it off, learn what you can from the incident, and stay off that PB's shift. Carry on as usual. You're obviously doing something right if you can push six figures counting in Vegas full-time, so when something like this happens, be glad it wasn't worse and get back to work.

Final note: you should actually be somewhat glad that the backoff occurred in the way that it did, too: I would infer from the casual meeting that this boss specifically did not want to make a stink at work over it and thought he's just let you off the hook by giving you a heads-up on the street. This means that you're probably clean on other shifts, and almost certainly clean at other nearby properties, both of which could be problems with a big fallout in the casino.
Wow! It took my a little while to constuct my previous post, LG and in that time, you posted this beauty of a post, which pretty much re-inforces my thoughts exactly. (and certainly expressed them far better than I could) Thank you greatly, Sir. :)
 
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Friendo

Well-Known Member
kewljason said:
... there is no doubt I made mistakes in handling this situation and even the unpreparedness of how I would handle such an unusual situation was a failure on my part. I hope to improve on that and be better prepared in the future.
Whoa!

Someone just confessed infallibility on the Internet!

(Cue "thud" of body hitting floor due to fainting spell)

If you can examine your play and grow as a result of mistakes, to the point of publicly admitting the need for growth, you're way ahead of most of us.

Mikhail Botvinnik was a top chess player for 40 years. Though not regarded as a genius, he never ceased to analyze his game for mistakes.
 

kewljason

Well-Known Member
aslan said:
Don't tell me you have reconsidered your move to Vegas?!
I was recently scolded by a couple full time players based in Las vegas for encouraging players to come here, so I am setting the record straight.

It's horrible here. Only a handfull of blackjack games, none beatable. Crowded conditions. Can never get a seat at the tables. Outrageously high real estate prices and horrendous weather most of the year. Cold dark and dreary. It's just a horrible place to be in general and especially for AP opportunities. :rolleyes:

The midwest is where it's at (and happening). :)
 

Billy C1

Well-Known Member
Work at it

kewljason said:
I was recently scolded by a couple full time players based in Las vegas for encouraging players to come here, so I am setting the record straight.

It's horrible here. Only a handfull of blackjack games, none beatable. Crowded conditions. Can never get a seat at the tables. Outrageously high real estate prices and horrendous weather most of the year. Cold dark and dreary. It's just a horrible place to be in general and especially for AP opportunities. :rolleyes:

The midwest is where it's at (and happening). :)
Here's one respect where Vegas and the midwest are the same-----there are opportunities for diligent people in both areas!!!!!

BillyC1
 
kewljason said:
I was recently scolded by a couple full time players based in Las vegas for encouraging players to come here, so I am setting the record straight.

It's horrible here. Only a handfull of blackjack games, none beatable. Crowded conditions. Can never get a seat at the tables. Outrageously high real estate prices and horrendous weather most of the year. Cold dark and dreary. It's just a horrible place to be in general and especially for AP opportunities. :rolleyes:

The midwest is where it's at (and happening). :)
Canceling my trip and heading to St. Louis! zg
 
The pit boss may have no personal incentive to have the casino win as much money as possible, except his own job security. He just wants to go to work, walk around the casino, chat with the players, and go home. Might still have that dealer mentality of rooting for the players to win if he was promoted from a dealer position. Some pit bosses may enjoy the power trip and rat out red chip pseudo-counters. Treat this like if you were pulled over for going 100 mph and let off with a warning. If the same cop sees you going 85 in the future, expect a ticket.

If anything, he might be jealous that you win more than his salary.
 

aslan

Well-Known Member
kewljason said:
I was recently scolded by a couple full time players based in Las vegas for encouraging players to come here, so I am setting the record straight.

It's horrible here. Only a handfull of blackjack games, none beatable. Crowded conditions. Can never get a seat at the tables. Outrageously high real estate prices and horrendous weather most of the year. Cold dark and dreary. It's just a horrible place to be in general and especially for AP opportunities. :rolleyes:

The midwest is where it's at (and happening). :)
Just as I thought! St. Louis, here I come!
 

Gamblor

Well-Known Member
zengrifter said:
Yes. It would look like a setup, not even a count play - more like a cheat - or an innocent lucky thing. That is one time he definitely should NOT have immediately scooted out the door suspiciously. A regular player would have cheered and stuck around basking in glory. I would have played another full shoe (or two) with 1/2-whole max bets and eaten the -EV of a few hundred dollars (hindsight). zg
Yes, what ZG says. Pulled this move myself on occassion after getting some heat. Hopefully you can get them bored to tears of watching your stupid play. Ha ha, a ploppy was so concerned about my winnings, and suggested I put my purple chips away and just play with my remaining reds. Why thank you ploppy, very good advice :laugh:

Sometimes you gotta go into full camo mode like the Predator.
 

kewljason

Well-Known Member
Gamblor said:
Yes, what ZG says. Pulled this move myself on occassion after getting some heat. Hopefully you can get them bored to tears of watching your stupid play. Ha ha, a ploppy was so concerned about my winnings, and suggested I put my purple chips away and just play with my remaining reds. Why thank you ploppy, very good advice :laugh:

Sometimes you gotta go into full camo mode like the Predator.
The problem with that is that whether initiated from above or by the pit, any skills check will take place from above and all that hooping and hollering and chatting, laughing, friendly part of an act, is wasted on them. They are looking for 2 things bet correlation and strategy changes by count. The full act is more effective at preventing them from looking at you. Once they have decided to do so you are rarely going to change their mind. You may buy yourself a very little bit of extra time with heavy cover, but you aren't going to win the war at that point. Better to cut your losses and live to fight another day. Get out as quickly as you can. ;)
 

Gamblor

Well-Known Member
kewljason said:
The problem with that is that whether initiated from above or by the pit, any skills check will take place from above and all that hooping and hollering and chatting, laughing, friendly part of an act, is wasted on them. They are looking for 2 things bet correlation and strategy changes by count. The full act is more effective at preventing them from looking at you. Once they have decided to do so you are rarely going to change their mind. You may buy yourself a very little bit of extra time with heavy cover, but you aren't going to win the war at that point. Better to cut your losses and live to fight another day. Get out as quickly as you can. ;)
Agreed, in your situation its just best to move on, you won so much, and you were a regular, so it would be a waste of time and money to go full camo.

But it other situations its worthwhile to go full camo. Keep in mind, what usually draws pit attention to you is a big win/bet. Then at that point they begin to pay closer attention to you, to figure out if your an AP or idiot.
 

aslan

Well-Known Member
kewljason said:
The problem with that is that whether initiated from above or by the pit, any skills check will take place from above and all that hooping and hollering and chatting, laughing, friendly part of an act, is wasted on them. They are looking for 2 things bet correlation and strategy changes by count. The full act is more effective at preventing them from looking at you. Once they have decided to do so you are rarely going to change their mind. You may buy yourself a very little bit of extra time with heavy cover, but you aren't going to win the war at that point. Better to cut your losses and live to fight another day. Get out as quickly as you can. ;)
And come back later to cash your chips. They didn't ctr you at the table, did they? If so, smile at the camera... :grin:
 

kewljason

Well-Known Member
Gamblor said:
Agreed, in your situation its just best to move on, you won so much, and you were a regular, so it would be a waste of time and money to go full camo.
Well I know this thread is/was about that particular session and the fall out from it, but I am really not talking specifics. The comments I just made about living to fight another day is just my personal opinion of how most low/mid level players should play. Especially if you are playing anonymously. Since they can't just punch in your name and see when you last played, if they want to get a good look at your play, let them manually search for previously recorded sessions. Yes I know they could try to match using facial recog, but that really doesn't do much. Someone is really going to have to sit down and spend some time looking for you. At that level of play, my guess is your not worth it.
 

Gamblor

Well-Known Member
kewljason said:
Well I know this thread is/was about that particular session and the fall out from it, but I am really not talking specifics. The comments I just made about living to fight another day is just my personal opinion of how most low/mid level players should play. Especially if you are playing anonymously. Since they can't just punch in your name and see when you last played, if they want to get a good look at your play, let them manually search for previously recorded sessions. Yes I know they could try to match using facial recog, but that really doesn't do much. Someone is really going to have to sit down and spend some time looking for you. At that level of play, my guess is your not worth it.
Agreed, I don't think they'll bother to pull up video tape on red/green player (or suspected AP w/o a huge advantage), in fact I think we tend to overestimate how often surveillance would do this, as we fear the unknown. Maybe exgriffinman can give some more insight on this. Would imagine its a pain to pull up old videos etc.,

But from my own observations, I'm pretty sure what typically happens is that a big win/bet draws the initial attention. Then they hawk your play for a bit, would say 10-15 minutes, or half a shoe or so. This is the time for camo.
 

flyingwind

Well-Known Member
ohbehave said:
I know he said he hasn't been back and won't go back for awhile but I think he should be very careful. If they saw a bet increase from $25 to $600 in a positive shoe, surveillance would have to be completely clueless, which is unlikely, to not make some kind of move. KJ has shown he can win and from my experience which I know is still limited but once you show you know how to win they don't want you around.
The problem is that to get the reasonable win rates we want, we need to spread this hard - and how to avoid surveillance noticing is a real dilemma. I can't figure out how good surveillance at some places are, but there are others which are really sharp. It's surprising that surveillance is better at some of the smaller joints than the big ones. Or maybe, the smaller joints won't tolerate as much - whereas the large joints see what you're doing, but they're tolerating you since your spread isn't big enough to be a threat to them.
 

Craps Master

Well-Known Member
creeping panther said:
This is why I have always strongly suggested getting a trade or a college education and playing as a side. We are entering an entire new era where guys like KJ can find themselves out of a job almost overnite, sorry to say.
LOL. No.
 

aslan

Well-Known Member
flyingwind said:
The problem is that to get the reasonable win rates we want, we need to spread this hard - and how to avoid surveillance noticing is a real dilemma. I can't figure out how good surveillance at some places are, but there are others which are really sharp. It's surprising that surveillance is better at some of the smaller joints than the big ones. Or maybe, the smaller joints won't tolerate as much - whereas the large joints see what you're doing, but they're tolerating you since your spread isn't big enough to be a threat to them.
The smaller joints are operating on a thinner margin. They can't afford what larger joints would call small hits. I have a Russian friend who was in Vegas with a big bettor from Moscow. The casino actually brought a table, dealer and all, to their suite. It's hard to imagine some of the gambling that goes on in the larger casinos. In October I heard about a Korean fellow who was beating one of the major houses by a few $million; if you were playing a $25 table and spreading 20 times you couldn't have attracted any attention on that day. The larger casinos are so used to the big play, I imagine it is boring to watch a $25 game. I'm not saying they won't; they are paid to do just that, if something bigger isn't going on at the same time. Eyes are people, just like you and me. What they want to do is catch a big fish like a Grosjean, now that's a feather in their cap, not some card counting minnow like myself. And they are trained to protect the casino from losing the large dollars first and foremost, then the little threats, if they can work it in. So, in a way, both the house's interest and the employee's self-interest, both work together to protect the small time card counter.
 
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some insight...

Gamblor said:
Agreed, I don't think they'll bother to pull up video tape on red/green player (or suspected AP w/o a huge advantage), in fact I think we tend to overestimate how often surveillance would do this, as we fear the unknown. Maybe exgriffinman can give some more insight on this. Would imagine its a pain to pull up old videos etc.,

But from my own observations, I'm pretty sure what typically happens is that a big win/bet draws the initial attention. Then they hawk your play for a bit, would say 10-15 minutes, or half a shoe or so. This is the time for camo.
Surveillance in most cases will not save the play of a counter unless the house took a large beating. With the days of old, we had video tape and a ton of VCRs which made taking video tapes out of rotation and shelving them for counters costly and inaffective. I've worked stores that had a 25K pull and others were 50K and above.

Today many casinos are digital. This makes the saving of video and images easier, but they wont bother for a counter (especially a low end counter like were talking abouut here) with each return trip starts a new evaluation.

If surveillance needs to, they can obatin your name or players card information and pull up the dates you played, length of play,wager, table, B/I and cash out, ect.
 
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